2017 Luxury Tax (aka, why Plumlee will be traded)

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by PtldPlatypus, Jun 28, 2016.

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  1. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    So, the understanding is that we're going to try to spend 20-25M in free agency this summer, and then re-sign our RFA's to try to continue our growth toward our pursuit of a title. But what I haven't seen much analysis of is what this is going to look like a year from now.

    http://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland-trail-blazers/cap/

    Counting our third stringers, we have 51.7 committed this season. Assuming we sign 20M worth of FA's this summer, then re-sign our RFA's for another $35M, and sign Layman for the minimum, we're looking at $107.6M in salary this summer. Not unreasonable, given a 94M cap, and a $112M tax level.

    Now, let's look at 2017. Projecting the 4.5%/7.5% raises on the FA contracts, and then giving CJ the max and re-signing Plumlee for 15M, our total team salary now approaches $150M (not even counting any 2017 draft picks). The currently projected salary cap in 2017 is $112M, which would set the tax line at around $134M. That puts us $16M over the tax line, which would put us in the 3.25X level according to the CBA FAQ. Quick math--$16M over the tax line equates to $52M in luxury tax.

    Now, I have been pretty conservative with most of these figures, but the upshot of it is that if we sign a decent FA and then keep all our RFA's (as is presumed, since we can't afford to be losing assets for nothing), then in order to keep Plumlee next summer, his salary and corresponding tax charge will basically going to cost over $60M--for one year. Even if we don't keep Leonard, there will be pressure and expectations this summer to use all the cap space available to make a contender, so we'll still be looking at a significant tax crunch. (Calculation table attached as an image)

    I doubt any of this is news to Olshey, so I think it's pretty likely that if we sign any front-court free agents that are projected to start, Plumlee is immediately on the trading block, because we simply can't reasonably expect to keep him given our 2017 salary picture.

    upload_2016-6-28_8-49-45.png
     
    PtldPlatypus, Jun 28, 2016
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  2. KeepOnRollin

    KeepOnRollin Well-Known Member

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    First of all, nice write up man!

    Wouldn't CJ's contract not kick in until 2018 summer? And Plumlee for that matter.
     
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2016
    KeepOnRollin, Jun 28, 2016
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  3. Cippy91

    Cippy91 Habitual Line Stepper

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    Am I the only one that doesn't think we are bringing meyers back?
     
    Cippy91, Jun 28, 2016
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  4. KeepOnRollin

    KeepOnRollin Well-Known Member

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    I think we try to find a sign and trade for him. Otherwise I think we push him to take the 1 year QO (Qualifying Offer) and let him leave next off-season.
     
    KeepOnRollin, Jun 28, 2016
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  5. OSUBlazerfan

    OSUBlazerfan Writing Team

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    We're not bringing him back
     
    OSUBlazerfan, Jun 28, 2016
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  6. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Nope. It will kick in in 2017. He's eligible for an extension now, but start beginning 2017.

    Dame was drafted in 2012-- his kicks in in 2016
    CJ drafted in 2013 -- kicks in in 2017
     
    illmatic99, Jun 28, 2016
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  7. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    jlprk, Jun 28, 2016
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  8. KeepOnRollin

    KeepOnRollin Well-Known Member

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    I know Hoopshype isn't the best salary site but they show something different (unless I am reading it wrong):
    http://hoopshype.com/salaries/portland_trail_blazers/
     
    KeepOnRollin, Jun 28, 2016
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  9. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    That's only if we give him a QO and he accepts a one year deal to become a UFA in 2018.

    We won't do that. We're giving him a max or letting him become a RFA and will accept whatever offer he gets in 2017.
     
    illmatic99, Jun 28, 2016
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  10. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    They're showing his qualifying offer, which is essentially the 5th year of the rookie deal, and is basically the place-holder for restricted free agency. Every first round pick who reaches restricted free agency after their fourth year has the option to either sign a free agent deal, which would then replace that qualifying offer, or accept the qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent after their fifth year. Virtually nobody simply takes the QO, so once he gets his max extension, the first year of the max deal will replace the QO.
     
    PtldPlatypus, Jun 28, 2016
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  11. KeepOnRollin

    KeepOnRollin Well-Known Member

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    In that case if we sign a new big one of our current bigs definitely has to go. Not necessarily this summer but at the latest next summer. This kind of makes Noah not doing so hot ok now. He can kinda suck for a while but then show some promise (but not too much that teams go crazy) until we sign him for cheap after his rookie deal is over.
     
    KeepOnRollin, Jun 28, 2016
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  12. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    This also could be "AKA why we won't sign a major free agent, but re-up Plumlee instead." To me, that's still Option C.
     
    BlazerCaravan, Jun 28, 2016
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  13. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Can you imagine the fan uproar if this 2016 summer of $30M+ cap space culminates in, "We're just keeping all our current guys and hoping for internal growth"? I can already see the torches and pitchforks.
     
    PtldPlatypus, Jun 28, 2016
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  14. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    Like the fans in Portland matter since the team is, like, already packing up to move to Seattle and shit. :ghoti:

    It's not Plan A or B for sure, but I'd rather keep Plumlee at 25 than get Howard at 30.

    The team, as constructed at the end of the season, can win 54 games in the west. That was the pace from Christmas on. Unless a move can get us from 54 to 60 wins, I don't know if a move is worth it just to make a move. Whiteside can do that, but I don't think Howard or Monroe or whoever can.
     
    BlazerCaravan, Jun 28, 2016
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  15. JFizzleRaider

    JFizzleRaider Yeast Lords Global Moderator

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    Yeah if we get whiteside, howard then plumlee is a goner.

    @PtldPlatypus thanks for putting this together and saying it much better than i could. Hopefully this finally gets the point accross to those that think we will keep plumlee even if we sign a c.

    I love plumlee, but if we get whiteside or howard, leonard and his shooting is the better fit. And is the guy id rather pay for over plums. Plums at least could get us a future 1st imo.
     
    JFizzleRaider, Jun 28, 2016
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  16. JFizzleRaider

    JFizzleRaider Yeast Lords Global Moderator

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    The story of our lives.

    That would be so depressing.
     
    JFizzleRaider, Jun 28, 2016
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  17. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    Howard is fool's gold.
     
    BlazerCaravan, Jun 28, 2016
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  18. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    I think it might depend on what we can get for him now, vs. what we can get for him at the deadline, vs. who we sign this summer, vs. how the team is doing.

    If we sign a high priced center, and Neil can get something of value for him this summer, he'll do it. If not, he'll keep him going into this season as our back-up 5. If we sign Howard or Whiteside and they get injured, it would be nice to have Plums to fill in and keep us in the chase for HCA while they are out. He's cheap, VERY cheap, insurance at this point. His trade value and return can be reassessed at the deadline. Or, if he's playing a vital role on this team, and the team is in contention, they will keep him through the playoffs and deal with the situation later.

    You always hate to let assets walk for nothing, but it's better than hurting your team's current performance. And, we can revisit the salary/tax issue next summer, by possibly trading someone else.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Jun 28, 2016
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  19. JFizzleRaider

    JFizzleRaider Yeast Lords Global Moderator

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    Perhaps. But hes gives us more of what we need than plumlee and id roll the dice while picking up a future first for plumlee.
     
    JFizzleRaider, Jun 28, 2016
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  20. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    If (like Woj has suggested) we can do a big one-year deal on Howard, I'd take a flyer on him. But no thank you to a multi-year deal.
     
    BlazerCaravan, Jun 28, 2016
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