@ #21: high ceiling or high floor?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by PtldPlatypus, Jun 23, 2011.

?

High ceiling or high floor?

  1. High ceiling (high risk/reward)

    10 vote(s)
    71.4%

  2. High floor (low risk/reward)

    4 vote(s)
    28.6%
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  1. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    I'm just curious what kind of drafter you guys are. With a late first round pick (like we have), would you prefer to take:
    1. A player who projects out as "safe" but not stellar, or;
    2. A player who could be nothing, but has the potential to be an all-star talent
     
    PtldPlatypus, Jun 23, 2011
    #1
  2. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    I think there's a third option: Nikola Mirotic. He's already playing big minutes for one of the top three teams in the second best league in the world. I'd say that's a high floor. He's also very young and has yet to fill out. I'd say that was a decently-high ceiling. Why's he available? Because he won't be coming over for at least 2 or 3 years.

    To address your question: what does "safe" mean? If it means a backup who can hold a lead, then I guess that option. I'd rather a Jarrett Jack than a Jerryd Bayless.
     
    Rastapopoulos, Jun 23, 2011
    #2
  3. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Serious question

    Can the Blazers afford to take another Euro project?

    Koponen, Freeland, Claver are all 1st rounders who have never seen NBA playing time. All 3 of those picks could have been used to select guys that could be used in trades right now to get an established player. Even if they struggled in Portland
     
    Mediocre Man, Jun 23, 2011
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  4. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    In a draft with normal talent, I'd pick floor. But this year, the both the floors and ceilings of these players are pretty low. I pick ceiling.
     
    illmatic99, Jun 23, 2011
    #4
  5. UKRAINEFAN

    UKRAINEFAN Well-Known Member

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    I'd be happy if we could find a guy like Dante Cunningham; a guy who can bang a little but also hit an open shot, I guess that's the floor. Shows how weak this draft is because a guy we got once in the 2nd round is probably not available at #21.
     
    UKRAINEFAN, Jun 23, 2011
    #5
  6. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    In a piss poor draft like this they'll be lucky to get a serviceable rotation player at 21, so I'd vote for "floor" in this instance.
     
    Nikolokolus, Jun 23, 2011
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  7. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    where we're at, we need floor. We need good, servicable bodies to fill roles. In the 2009 and (lesser) 2010 drafts, we could afford to swing for the fences. Now that we've struck out a bunch, we need to string together a couple of line-drive singles.
     
    BrianFromWA, Jun 23, 2011
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  8. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Ceiling. No question.

    We need top-tier talent to take a step up. We don't need role players. Role players can be had as free agents or through trade (see: Wes Matthews).

    We don't need another Jeff Pendergraph or a Dante Cunningham. We need someone who can potentially make an impact in a year or two.

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Jun 23, 2011
    #8
  9. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    In a normal draft I'd agree, but in a draft with 50 second rounders?
     
    Nikolokolus, Jun 23, 2011
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  10. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    I think in general, teams should always shoot for the star in the draft, and fill need through FA and trades. It can certainly be a recipe for failure, but it is about the only way to build a contender.
     
    Mediocre Man, Jun 23, 2011
    #10
  11. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Why would we want a mediocre second rounder? That would leave us with an end-of-the-bench/cuttable guy as our first round pick.

    I'd prefer to have a guy that will probably be cuttable but MIGHT be something a lot more.

    If it were a deeper draft, I'd be much happier with a "high floor" guy, since the floor would be relatively higher. Now? The high floor seems like it's going to be lower than most years' high floors.

    If that makes sense :)

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Jun 23, 2011
    #11
  12. Blaze01

    Blaze01 JBB JustBBall Member

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    at #21? In this draft?

    High ceiling all the way....
     
    Blaze01, Jun 23, 2011
    #12
  13. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    I always skew toward "high ceiling." You need stars to win titles, so it's better to gamble and go after stars, even if the failed attempts result in total wash-outs. Drafting for "safety" generally means accumulating players who survive in the NBA for a few years but don't achieve much in the NBA.

    As an example, I'd much rather the Blazers had selected Blair instead of Cunningham or Pendergraph. Worst case with Blair, his knee explodes and he's worthless...or, just one step down from a healthy Cunningham/Pendergraph. Best case, he's a high-level complementary player...which would be outstanding for a second-round pick.
     
    Minstrel, Jun 23, 2011
    #13
  14. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    if we would've taken Blair, we'd be in position to go for high upside. Since we got one guy that completely sucked and then got hurt, and then traded a halfway-decent one for an All-Star (no shame there) it's time to restock with floor guys, b/c you need role players.

    Who was the last good role player we got in FA? Ime? Juwan?
     
    BrianFromWA, Jun 23, 2011
    #14
  15. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    You can get role players pretty easily, IMO. It's the stars that are tougher.

    Wes Matthews. Andre Miller.

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Jun 23, 2011
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  16. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Those weren't role players, and you know it. One was a more-than-MLE, and one was a max-MLE. Both are starters on this team.

    I'm talking about stocking Man #6-10, and we haven't had any luck with that.
     
    BrianFromWA, Jun 23, 2011
    #16
  17. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    I think Matthews was brought in to be a role player.
     
    B-Roy, Jun 23, 2011
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  18. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    I don't follow.

    First of all, neither was over the MLE, and Miller was not a max MLE.

    Secondly, Matthews was (and perhaps may remain) a bench player for the Blazers. That puts him between 6-10.

    Thirdly, why would we try to get a lesser player as a free agent if we can add a player like those two? Good players can be role players too.

    Fourthly, that was just the last two summers. If you look farther back, guys like Joel Przbilla and Steve Blake (twice) and Juan Dixon were free agent acquisitions. I'm sure there are more I'm not thinking of.

    It is, under the current CBA at least, pretty easy to get rotation players if you are willing to sign the check. And the Blazers have been willing to do it.

    Ed O.
     
    Ed O, Jun 23, 2011
    #18
  19. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Matthews was absolutely expected to be a #6 type of player. He's become a starter due to Roy's total physical destruction.

    But I don't think you aim to "stocK" reserves. You try to get the best players you can in the draft and free agency...and the worst of the players you acquire populate the bench. Getting Camby wasn't meant as a "stock the bench" move, but if Oden returns, he'll make a good bench player. Batum was expected to be a starter, but with the acquisition of Wallace, he's become a good reserve player. That's the right way to let the bench fill up, IMO. Not trying to draft bench players.
     
    Minstrel, Jun 23, 2011
    #19
  20. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    First, Miller was over the MLE, and Matthews was a full MLE that was front-loaded with the signing bonus (toxic).

    Secondly, if you think that Matthews was brought in to be a "solid 6-10 role player" and not "starter when Roy's wheels fall off", we're just going to have to disagree.

    I'm not saying don't go after free agents. I'm saying that POR gets the grand total of the MLE+BAE(every other year) to spend every year on fixing the rotation of 6-10. The vet min is available for 11-15 guys (what Juwan Howard was supposed to be). I'm just saying that you might get one impact player for a full MLE, or you might not. You might get a couple of 8-11 guys if you split the MLE. But you're not generally getting a vital piece via MLE Free Agency.

    Juan Dixon is an example of that 8-11 guy that you can get via the splitting the MLE, and so was Blake.

    And your examples have been Joel when washed-up (when he was healthy he was higher than MLE) Juan Dixon, Steve Blake, (I'll add Fred Jones and Ime Udoka), Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, and I'm sure I'm missing someone. Blake is the only rotation player still in the league on a "better than horrible" team. Portland can only sign the same amount as every other team in the league, which means they're at a horrible disadvantage (Wes excluded). Did Hedo accept our check? Lee? Millsap? Juwan last year?

    Bottom Line: If you have success in the draft, it allows you to keep taking risks. If you don't have success for a couple drafts in a row, you need "floor" players. POR needs to use the draft, b/c they're at a disadvantage in FA, and can only offer the same $ as everyone else.
     
    BrianFromWA, Jun 23, 2011
    #20
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