The October surprise, if there is one, is low turnout for Obama supporters. That's it, this campaign is ovah.
Gallup did three polls. One with registered voters, which had Obama up 49%-43%. The second had a model using likely voters with Republican 2004 turnout figures (which was an all time high) and Obama was still up by two percentage points. The third model used Gallup's likely voters with current projected turnout figures and Obama went back up 49%-43%. This election ended the minute McCain chose to not mobilize the Republicans behind an alternative bailout bill.
That would indeed have made for some interesting politics, had they championed competing bailout plans. barfo
