Active players likely to make HOF according to ESPN's Schoenfield

According to http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/38570/active-players-who-will-be-hall-of-famers, there are 40 active players that Schoenfield suspects will or likely will make the HOF at some point.

"...Here are 40 active players who will be Hall of Famers -- listed in order of most likely to make it. We're at a moment when there are very few sure-thing Hall of Famers -- I count only five -- so the list thus involves a lot speculation. I considered only players who have played in the majors this year, so no Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez or Scott Rolen."

1. Derek Jeter: Would anyone find reason not to vote for Jeter? Well, he did date Mariah Carey. Jeter may seem like a lock as a unanimous selection, but keep in mind that eight voters somehow found reason not to vote for Cal Ripken Jr.

2. Mariano Rivera: No matter what you think of closers, Rivera will be a slam-dunk selection, with his "greatest closer ever" label, World Series rings, universal respect among opponents and writers, and 0.70 postseason ERA in 141 innings. While writers have generally become very generous to relievers -- Dennis Eckersley made it in his first year on the ballot -- I suspect a few won't vote for Rivera out of an anti-reliever stand.

6. Robinson Cano: He has done a lot of things MVP voters like -- hit for average, drive in runs, win a World Series -- and done it with exceptional durability. He's already at 42.4 WAR and needs three to four more peak seasons to ensure lock status, but he's just 30 and still at the top of his game. Considering his durability and age, 3,000 hits isn't out of the question either.

11. CC Sabathia: He has 200 wins and looked like a possible 300-game winner entering this season, but that 4.65 ERA has everyone wondering how much he has left in the tank at age 33.

19. Andy Pettitte: See Jack Morris. Probably a slow crawl on the BBWAA ballot, perhaps hurt by admitting he tried PEDs (although he seems to have escaped the stain), with eventual election by the Veterans Committee. With 252 wins, five World Series rings and 19 postseason wins, it's difficult to ignore his fame and constant presence in October.

39. David Ortiz: There's no denying the fame and the peak value -- he finished in the top five in MVP voting five consecutive seasons -- but he has several strikes against him, notably the PED allegations (Ortiz was mentioned in the Mitchell report) and the fact that he may not be the best DH eligible (that would be Edgar Martinez, with a career WAR of 68.3 to Ortiz's 42.7). Papi is at 420 home runs; if he gets to 500 (round number!), his chances go up, but like all the guys tied to steroids, he'll be a controversial candidate.

40. Alex Rodriguez: He hasn't actually suited up in the majors yet this season, but let's assume he does to be eligible for this list. I also assume, at some point in the future -- 20 years? 25 years? 75 years? -- the moral outrage against the steroids users eventually subsides. Maybe, like Deacon White, A-Rod makes it some 130 years after he plays his final game.

There are other interesting names on there... At this point, I can't see A-Rod ever getting in, and I'm not sure about Pettitte or CC...

 

Jeter and Mo should be automatic. If CC can correct himself, something that isn't automatic, then he to in time would make it if he gets to 300 wins. Andy is borderline for me as much as I love him. His Yankee records and winning percentage may be enough. Ortiz as much as I hate to say, as long as he stays clean in test and not consciousness, will make it. Arod will be banned, and if not banned, hated by the writers to if he makes it, it wont be till after he is dead. Cano, talents there, time will tell.

 

I have seen a lot of people comment that CC, as he is now, makes it... even if he doesn't get to 300... I mean, there are a lot of HOF pitchers who didn't get to 300 wins... Koufax, Drysdale, Feller, Gibson, Marichal, Catfish Hunter, Ron Guidry, Fergie Jenkins, Robin Roberts, Carl Hubbell, Whitey Ford, Jim Palmer, Bert Blyleven, etc. check out http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=LjYQR I hadn't realized there were so many pitchers in the HOF that didn't have the 300...

 

If CC could continue on a moderately successful path and even fall short of 300 he has a great shot. If he continues on his current path they should retire his number at his high school and move on.

 

By the way, who are we kidding, if Ortiz retires today he gets in. He is such a darling it's sickening. Zero PED scrutiny and his little blow up will fall by the wayside as well. Oh shucks that cooky character - just had one of those moments. He's so humble. Keep telling yourself that Papi, it's clear you believe it yet you still will not take any responsibility for your actions.

 

Unfortunately, Gator did not pitch long enough to ever be considered HOF-worthy.

 

he was listed on the Mitchell report, but you are probably right... Edgar Martinez isn't in though, and IMO, he was better than Shrek

 

...ARod will not sniff the HOF.

 

Your point is valid, but what i was thinking would be if CC became totally irrelevent and say he goes like 30-50 over the next 3 years, then I feel he may be short of Hall of Fame worthiness.

 

Not only that, I think he might very well be at the end of the line when it comes to even remote consideration in the class of other PED guys like Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Palmeior, Sosa, etc.

His antics the last few years have completely ruined any professional reputation he could have ever hoped to maintain. I think Arod should no longer be viewed as a baseball player, and pending a long suspension (or ban altogether) will quickly move into reality TV star. I can picture it now - Arod becomes the owner of a spray-tan salon on SoBe, and the hijinx and drama never ends....

 

I was thinking WWE or something like that...

 

..Yup, I see it pretty much the same way....Clemens may get in some day, but Sosa, Mcguire, Palmerio, may never get in.

 

Bonds?

 

...lol...wow, I don't know what happened, but I could have sworn I typed "Bonds and Clemens"...my bad, sometimes what your brain is really thinking and what your hands actually type are not the same at all.

...but yeah, along with Clemens, I think Bonds eventually gets in...and no one dislikes Bonds more than me,

 

that would suck... he obviously cheated the most hallowed of records... and he would have been in without it...

 

...personally, I'd rather neither of them get in. But if they do, it should only be posthumously.

 

The reason I think Bonds will eventually get in is because of the #s he put up prior to his PED use. Which most believe was between 2000-2004 Prior to that he was well on his way to cooperstown. 34 years old 445 HRs, 3 MVPs near 500 SBs & 8 GGs.

And thats the sad part, this guy didn't need them.

As far as some of the others.....I don't think Wright's #s by the time he's done will be enough. Mauer..see David Wright. But he may get the nod for the position he plays. Beltre, he had that steroid like induced contract season in 2004 48/121/334 after only hitting 23 the year before. Got the big contract from the Rangers & hasn't sniffed the 40 HR mark since. Pettitte's admission to steroids will hurt him. A-Rod PLEASE! & Ortiz for some reason will be in. Even though this year at almost 38 he's having the best season he's had in 6-7 years & that's with missing 20 games.

 

oh, I forgot... Ichiro was on the list too...

5. Ichiro Suzuki: He may not get to 3,000 hits in the majors -- he's at 2,706 after Sunday's four-hit game -- but with 1,278 hits in Japan, voters should factor that he didn't arrive in Seattle until he was 27. With his all-around brilliance, he should sail in on the first ballot.

 

10 straight 200 hit seasons. That alone will make him a lock for the HOF.

 

I agree, on the right team, Suzuki run total would have been higher also if not for the bad Mariner teams that they experienced the last few years he was there.