Not having Brandon is a blow to our playoffs. He's brings it on every play, plays with a lot of heart and doesn't back down from anyone. He will be sorely missed. But the fact is he will not be available. Therefore, what can we do better without him? We can run more. We can move without the ball better and make more passes before shooting, which has the potential to break down defenses. And while we do not have his capability to be unafraid to take the big shot, we won't have him being stripped of the ball going 1-on-3 or 1-on-4 at the very end of big games. That will keep defenses guessing as to who will be the option to shoot a game winning shot, which could be beneficial. So while I will miss Brandon, and think we're overall not as good a team as we are with him, perhaps we can focus on what we do better without him and thus giving me hope that we can reach the conference finals in a bracket that is favorable to us. It's going to be a hell of a challenge, but I think we're up to it.
Do we really want to run more against a team that likes to run? Seems like that is playing right into Phoenix's game plan. I think our best chance is to slow it down and make it an ugly game. I like your optimism though.
I think you are right regarding running against the Suns. I didn't think of that. Roy is much better in a slow down game.
Bingo. We don't have a chance to out-run Phoenix. If we can't impose our will (and pace) on this series, then we will get blown out of the gym. Phoenix has been firing on all cylinders - we have to try and make the game uncomfortable for them. They don't like to grind out half-court, physically played/playoff style, 88-85 type games. Our hope is that they get frustrated b/c they can't get in their comfort zone, and sort of break their will. That doesn't mean we forgo running all together. They'll try and pick their spots. But the overall tempo of the game, if the Blazers have their way, will be a slowed down style of play.
That's the big thing. One thing we do better is run. And that's the one thing we DON'T want to do against Phoenix. The biggest reason we have been successful against them, IMO, is ROy controlling the pace. Still, Miller will do alright in controlling the pace for us. He will run us when it is available, and slow it down and abuse Nash on the block when it is not. We just need to attack them inside. Aldridge needs to work Frye on the block, so that they put Amare on him, which would make life easier for Camby to get tip ins and offensive rebounds. Bayless needs to attack and not stop. GET TO THE RIM! I'd tell him if I was Nate I would only want to see him shoot outside of the lane if he is wide open on a swung pass. No creating off the dribble. Either attack the basket, or shoot wide open jumpers. None of that in between bullshit that will lead to long rebounds and run out situations. Again, Miller needs to abuse Nash on the block. Early and often. And when they bench him, abuse Dragic. Get Nash in early foul trouble, or Amare trying to help. E ither way, slam your body into him, and make him not want to run, adn not able to run. Stretch out the possessions and the series, and it will start to favor us.
There are NONE! He is our best player. Maybe in a one game situation players step up like they did this season a few times, but trust me that EVERY team in this league would rather face us WITHOUT Brandon then WITH!
who do they have that can realistically guard Miller? Maybe Hill? Both Nash and Richardson suck at defense which will be exploited regardless of who they're matched on. Camby and LA can spread the court allowing Andre to operate inside collapsing their D and either scoring on the block or kicking to shooters. If Hill is on him he'll be driving off picks and getting their frontline in foul trouble. Unless Portland gets consistently jobbed by the officials, I see this as a pretty evenly matched series. STOMP
I see only two possible advantages to Brandon being gone: 1. The Blazers will be a bit less predictable, particularly in the 4th quarter, than they are when Brandon is typically put in iso situations. 2. The other Blazer players will be pushed into taking bigger roles instead of sitting back at times and watching Brandon. Neither of those potential advantages, IMHO, makes up for losing Brandon.
There is an advantage, but it won't last long. It's hard to prepare for a team that has lost the major focus of their offense. That said, I think our bench will look a bit less shitty now that it's not our bench. Webster plays a lot better when he plays more minutes (he had a very good 48-minute game earlier in the season) and Bayless can play more 2-guard, which is his natural position. Our real weakness is backup PG. I wonder if Mills will get any time, particularly if Miller gets in foul trouble. The more I think about this, the more pessimistic I get. I think our hopes hang on three players: Miller, Aldridge, and possibly Batum. If Batum can be for us what he was for France last Summer, we have a chance.
In the playoffs last year, Andre averaged 21 ppg, 5 assists and 6 rebounds. He's going to have to put up pretty similar numbers if we want to even be competitive. Camby needs to pull in 15 rebounds pretty much every game, continue to hit his top-of-the-key jumper, and stay out of foul trouble on Amare. Batum has to contain Nash. He's probably watching game film of the Nash/Amare pick and roll right now. I'd be a lot more optimistic about this series with Roy. There's always a chance, but I'm not that optimistic.
With Lopez out for them, we really need to pound it inside every chance we get. Neither Frye nor Stoudemire defends worth a damn. I see Miller posting up a lot, too.
I think Camby will have to guard Amare one-on-one, because you don't ever want to let Phoenix start getting open threes. That will be ugly, because that's not Camby's strength against ANYONE, let alone Stoudemire. We'll miss Joel and Greg as much as Roy, I think. Our only hope is in playing as uglily as possible...
In the playoffs last year, Miller averaged 43 mpg. I think that's pretty much the game plan this time around too.
Without Roy, the one big thing that we immediately become better at is losing. We have a big advantage now in that department. So there's that. But I do see an advantage of having so many injuries and obstacles throughout the year because I think it's given the remainder of the team a lot of grit, toughness, and they've shown they're capable of stepping up and overcoming a lot of adversity. They should have the confidence that they're still a very dangerous team even without their leader. I think Rudy has become one of the most important guys in the series. He needs to step up bigtime. He's been in the big games, bigger than Roy, and played very well, but not yet in the NBA. This is his time to make a name for himself. Everyone will have to step up though, especially defensively. Phoenix is rolling but I still wonder if they have the intestinal fortitude to handle the toughness/adversity they'll see in the playoffs. We NEED to steal one of the first two in Phoenix, shake their confidence a little, add a little more pressure, then see what happens. If Phoenix gets up 2-0, the way they're playing it could be a short series.
We have several things going for us. Over the years I have noticed that Andre Millers is a player that for the most part, plays at a higher level in the playoffs than he does during the regular season. In all but one season, he increased his averages across the board in the playoffs. Marcus Camby tends to elevate his game as well, and has finals experience. Juwan Howard has a lot of playoff experience as well. Between these 3 guys, they have many more times playoff experience than the rest of the team combined has. This is a vast improvement from last year. Now the question is, how does the rest of the team respond. The only thing we need to do against Phoenix to be in every game with them, is for guys to nut up and hit their shots. We cannot afford a lot of missed 3's vs PHX. They will run off it, and kill us. The best way to do that, it to not take a lot of 3's, and attack the rim.
You can run on Phoenix (their transition D is pretty terrible), you just can't get lulled into playing no defense on them and thinking that you can just outscore them.
The one thing to remember with Phoenix is to not give up. Oftentimes they get big leads, and blow them within minutes. They shoot a lot of 3's. Live by the 3, die by the 3. If they start missing, you absolutely have to run off it.
The trouble with Camby guarding Amare' one-on-one is that the Suns will just go to their pick and roll, two man game with Nash and Stoudamire and run it to death. In that case Nate has shown that he's much more likely to switch on all pick and rolls, so who picks up Amare when Camby goes on Nash? Batum, Miller, LMA? There's no real good answer.
