Exclusive All things Amen Thompson

I quit watching after 2 minutes because I can't learn anything from break-away dunks...that about all it was

 

Something like this. Like drop coverage. It means the defender will be well off the 3-point. No pressure on the ball either.
I think one way to defeat this is for Westbrook to go to Gordon and set a pick on Poole so Gordon gets an open shot. If you have two offensive players on the 3-point line and only one defensive player you should be able to take advantage of that.
If Lillard is in the corner, he probably doesn't even need a pick. He can run toward Westbrook/Amen, take the pass from Amen and get the shot off.
The Clippers made this a lot more complicated that it needed to be. Bad offense.
Funny thing is, it ended up being Gordon taking the shot off of Westbrook driving and dishing.

 

Has a 20 year old ever done this "scarp his current shot" and become a great shooter?

I think people undervalue the age 13-19 years for development. Yeah players improve drastically in their 20s, but they need to have a foundation to build on. Shooting a basketball is about as foundational for basketball as you can get.

Scoot inaccuracies don't bother me as much, his shot looks fine. While Amen has me concerned he'll be another Michael Kidd Gilchrist.

If it was something he could improve seems like he would've done that the last 3 years while building his draft stock.

 

If his shot is as broken as we're hearing, he can't be taken at 3. Another team will take the swing later in the lottery though.

 

His shot could slightly improve to Draymond-Green-level.
We're not comparing Amen to perfection, but to other players.
Amen has the possibility to become an elite point-of-attack defender of positions 1-3 that Miller and Scoot don't have. He's 6'7" in shoes with a 7-foot wingspan.
If the Blazers didn't have a lot of good outside shooters, the Blazers wouldn't be a good landing spot for Amen, but the Blazers do have a lot of good outside shooters.
Michael Kidd Gilchrist is not a good comparison. He was never a primary ball handler with blazing speed who attacked the hoop every chance he had.

 

Draymond shooting is fine at PF/C. As a guard it would be very concerning and might push him to a backup role.

So is the hope Amen could eventually become a worse shooting Justice Winslow?

I'd take a flyer on him in the middle of the lottery, but no way in the top3. He makes no sense if we're keeping Dame and trying to win. If we're rebuilding, then the current shooting on the Blazers roster doesn't really matter outside Shae/Ant.

 

As we're hearing? Take a look at the videos, then take a look at the stats. It's broken.

STOMP

 

Amen is the type of freaky athlete that doesn't need a respected jumper to be extremely successful. He's still going to be able to eat up space quickly, get in the paint and use his special finishing tools/passing vision/contortion ability to make plays.

Brandon Miller is safe with an All-Star level ceiling but I just can't get super excited about him. I'd much rather swing on the outlier physical tools and skills that Amen has.

 

I said this a while back but when I watch video of the Thompson's I get Corey Brewer vibes

 

Faint shades. At same age, Amen is a far superior handler and passer, significantly stronger too.

 

30 pounds heavier, much longer and more athletic then Corey as well. If he develops a reliable set shot that forces the D to stay out on him on the perimeter, he's a regular All Star

STOMP

 

Anyone who’s done a deep dive on Amen would bet on his jumper getting better. All the other talents are otherworldly—his playmaking and athleticism. His defense will take a year or a little longer to adjust to the speed of the game, but should be great on that end. People who are around the twins talk about how HARD they work.

There’s plenty of guys that have similar archetypes that have become considerably better shooters. DeAaron Fox doesn’t shoot a high percentage, but he’s at least he’s made enough of them that I’m still worried he can get hot. Lonzo’s shot was just as broken, and he became a good shooter, both form and percentages. Two guys who have retired recently, Shawn Marion and Kevin Martin, never ever developed a proper shooting form but were respected enough from 3.

Let’s just say in two years, at worst he’s a 6’7 in shoes, 99th percentile athlete, better defending but worse ball handling and scoring version of DeAaron Fox, is anyone complaining? He would easily be the best point of attack defender, second best decision maker on the ball, and the best athlete on the court on most nights.

I’m with you on Brandon Miller. He has some question marks on offense but should still be at least a Brandon Ingram kind of scorer. But I don’t see enough from him to make me excited about his long term projection defensively.

 

Also a tier above Brewer athletically. I don’t think enough people are accounting for how much his athleticism can carry him in the NBA if he pans out in all the areas he’s projected to be great at.

Two guys he would have a role similar to eventually would be Giannis and Ben. Both of those guys are considerably taller, but they are great at everything besides shooting, like Amen. Amen is a rookie, and Chauncey has shown me he works better with young guys than veterans so far.

Chauncey just has to mold him into the the right player. Teach him to be a more disciplined defender. Encourage him to cut and hustle so he can see time on the court. Amen will need to work on his handles and shooting. Amen being great at everything else but shooting, his athleticism makes him at least a top 15 player in the league. If he ever became a 36% 3pt player in addition to everything else, he’s arguably top 10.

 

Helps that I agree, but great post.

He's truly an unbelievable all around athlete. Top 5-10 from day one I'd argue.

Already like his cutting feel. His game is flashy but he's not a show boater and seems like a hard working, no-nonsense guy. Bright personality.

Would really help our transition game and give us another consistent rim pressure player. Has the tools defend all over the floor, especially as he continues to get stronger. His lower body is already really well developed but still has room to fill out his upper body. Already 215 and I think he could comfortably play at 225 or so.

He's just a crazy fun talent and the skill and personality fit would be awesome imo

 

This is the guy that I see how most other people see Scoot.

If you’re gonna bank on one of them to get a jumper… I’ll take the 6’7 freak athlete

Imagine the fast break with Sharpe and Amen …

 

most players dont have mechanics so completely out of wack from whats normal... he's already an outlier. While I can list many greats who went from poor outside threats to solid+ during their careers, I think that Amen needs/should accept that what he's doing isn't working and he should adapt a more normal shooting form. Is there a reason you think him being 2o would be some sort of a hinderence to making a change in his game if he wanted to?

STOMP

 

@BankTeller, @JDC, & @Predator -
I respect all three of your opinions. You all have more nuanced opinions than the general takes here...

You all seem to like Amen. Im curious how you would rank the top 5 players in this draft (Im assuming Wemby would be unanimous #1, but not sure).

I guess the real question is #3 vs #4 or 5 close enough to risk trading down?
4 + Eason?
5 + Duren?

 

I don't think they'd be interested in giving up those guys. Detroit would likely be trading up for Amen and Houston loves Eason.

As for top 5...

Wemby
*Big tier break*
Scoot
Amen
*Small tier break*
Ausar
*Small tier break*
Miller

 

Yes, I suspect a basketball shot is developed when players are very young (early teens or younger), and it can never be completely recreated when your old (late teens or 20s). Yes there are small adjustments or tweaks or minor changes, but not an entire re-creation.

Its a very complex intuited motion, like a golf swing. Yes you can work on parts of it, keep elbow here or follow through there, but you can't completely unlearn what you previously have done.

I'm not 100% certain on this, but that's just my experience playing and watching thousands of people shoot.

Your suggesting Amen can create an entirely new shot mechanics. Has any other good NBA shooter ever done this? Only NBA players I've ever heard of recreating a shot are horrible shooters like Tristan Thompson.

 

#2 Scoot (with little separation from Amen)
#3 Amen (with considerable separation from Ausar)
#4 Ausar (with little separation from Miller)
#5 Miller

I would probably be in the minority with Ausar at #4, but I’m big on character and work ethic and they display. Miller is the obvious omission, but I see a lot on this forum who have advocated for Walker and Whitmore. I think Walker and Whitmore are in the tier below the top 4. Ausar is widely considered in the 2nd tier as well, but I think he could be a guy who ends with with a top 5 career in this draft.

Ausar is actually the more NBA ready player between the twins. He’s currently a better shooter, defender, and ball handler. I’ve compared Ausar to Brown’s year at Cal, Brown at Cal is somewhere between Amen and Asuar but closer to Amen in terms of NBA readiness. Yes, Ausar doesn’t have the potential of a primary PG, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to get to a Devin Booker or PG level of understanding the game and average over 4apg. If you could get a guy who in 5 years has a career similar to Brown right after the Tier A players are off the board, you’ve done alright for yourself.

Between those two trades, I would take the chance on #5 and Duren, but I’m also a Duren homer. Got to see him play in the tournament live and saw the potential right away even though he didn’t have stellar stats in the game. We wouldn’t feel the need to just trade Nurk for nothing. If we trade Nurk, it’ll be because Duren needs a consistent 30 mins a night, not because we’re desperate for a new C. A Nurk injury just gives Duren more minutes to eat up. Nurk, Duren, and a third big guarantee we don’t need to worry about the C rotation for a few years barring injury to Duren. If you could draft Ausar at #5 (who you hope to be your SF of the future) and Duren who would be the future at C with just the #3, you should do it. It also only takes the Rockets being excited about Walker, Whitmore, or maybe even Black to knock Amen out of the top 4. In that situation, you just got a guy in the top 4 AND have your C of the future. Between Amen, Sharpe, and Duren, Amen is actually the oldest player. THAT’S a future to get excited about.

But #5 and Duren is a little far fetched. Do they love Scoot enough to trade their young cornerstone + still a solid shot at a franchise-altering player? I’m skeptical. Plan B would be #4 and Eason. I would hope to be able to get #20 in addition to #4 and Eason though. I like Eason but I don’t see him as a franchise-altering talent like Duren. #20 and #23 would be good pieces to add players or get our 1st back. Daniel Gafford could be had for a TPE and some 2nds was one from Torey’s video that I liked. Maybe a trade up to secure a second guy closer to the end of the lottery. Maybe attach them to Ant and see if Ant, #20, and #23 are enough if Masai ever parts with OG. There are more opportunities with getting #20 in addition to #4 and Eason. Rockets will have to love Scoot that much for me to give them #3.

I’ve also liked #6, #11, and WCJ for #3 and Nurk. #6 still guarantees Ausar, and you could also have #11 and #23 in addition to a cheaper starting C. #11 and #23 could grab us another top 10 talent like Hendricks or Walker. WCJ/Gafford/another big would make me feel better about the C rotation. Ant + #11 + #23 could bring in a newer fit. I think Ant + #11 is probably where OG’s value is.