Analysis of trade from the Celtics' perspective

Let's examine the trade...

...financially:

Teams in the NBA generally maintain a payroll in which their best players are paid the most money. This means that if a team is paying a player near maximum money, the player must be performing at a high level if the team wants to achieve success and stay within the constraints of the luxury tax. Szczerbiak has 26.55M and two years left on his contract. He is the second highest paid player on the team; however, his production is very limited, which puts the Celtics in a poor position as they cannot make up for his production with another quality player since his contract hurts the Celtics' cap management. By trading Szczerbiak for a player that deserves his contract in Ray Allen [52.17M over three seasons], the Celtics are managing their cap room well. Pierce, Jefferson, and Allen will be the three best players on the team, while also being the three highest paid players on the team in the '08-'09 season in which they will combine for about 83% of the cap. The Celtics do not have to extend Delonte West now and still have the option of trading Ratliff's salary for another impact player, hopefully a point guard, or can decide to keep the contract for its insurance benefits to appease the ownership group.

...from a basketball perspective:

Jeff Green, Yi Jianlian, and Corey Brewer will never be better than Ray Allen. Never. Perhaps Brandan Wright will eventually become better than Allen; however, the Celtics needed to appease their fans and their star player and did so by trading for another top fifteen player. Delonte West did not have a future in Boston since he uses far too many possessions for his limited talent and production. Wally Szczerbiak is a poor player as injuries have rendered him below average by taking away his lift on his jump shots, which was his only positive trait. Ray Allen fits well with the Celtics since he is primarily a shooter and will either be open when his defender commits to a slashing Pierce or will demand attention at all times, leaving the point guard [hopefully not Rondo since this move means that the Celtics will stay with a half-court offense, which requires a point guard with some perimeter shooting ability] open on the perimeter. Pierce will go back to his mid-range game, hopefully, and will score through easy jump shots and dribble penetration. Allen will score through longer jump shots. They are both fairly talented passers and they are both fairly unselfish. I think they fit well together, though one cannot predit chemistry. The move gives the Celtics three great scoring options. Pierce and Allen will combine for at least forty to forty-five points per game and Jefferson will be left in single coverage since the defending swing men cannot leave Pierce and Allen open. Jefferson does very well in single coverage and he will hopefully not lose his motivation and continue his high scoring output. Rondo is a serviceable point guard, but the Celtics should offer Maurice Williams the full mid level exception. With Allen the Celtics do not need their center to score if they choose to play Jefferson at power forward. If Al stays at center, Ryan Gomes is a decent alternative, though the Celtics still need to find a big man that can defend the pick and roll [Charlie Villanueva perhaps].

The Celtics do very well in this trade.

 

Re: Analysis of trade from the Celtics' perspectiv...

Yea I'm looking forward to see what the Celtics can cook up. The Bobcatswaived Brevin Knight so he could be a good pick up although he wont solve the perimeter shooting they would need from the PG position.

 

Re: Analysis of trade from the Celtics' perspectiv...

I like the trade a lot and actually believe that they'll make it all the way to the finals. (I would bet on it)</p>


But yea keeping Theo, I guess they'll go after Camby (I hope they do) or maybe even KG?. </p>

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Re: Analysis of trade from the Celtics' perspectiv...

Premier, do you think Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will finish the next NBA season on the Boston Celtics</p>

And...what number will Ray Allen wear? I'm thinnking 17 to signify that he's half the player he used to be.</p>

 

Re: Analysis of trade from the Celtics' perspectiv...

Yes, they'll finish the season together. And Allen will wear #30.

 

Re: Analysis of trade from the Celtics' perspectiv...

I see no reason that the Celtics will trade either Allen or Pierce this season. Ray's wearing #20, too.</p>

 

Does any of the new BBW members here have any thoughts on the trade?

 

Well, we have all voiced our opinions in the past, but I like the deal. I have always been a big fan of Ray Allen. When I first heard that the rumor was Theo Ratliff, the #5 pick, and an undisclosed player, I did not like it. The fact that Danny was able to keep Theo and his valuable expiring deal and replace him with Wally, who is damaged goods and has a worse contract, was great.</p>

I am, however, a big Georgetown Hoyas fan. I love Jeff Green, but at the same time I realize that a rookie is not what we need. We would have taken Yi anyway, who is 100% up in the air. I'll miss the hell out of Delonte. He's was a real pleasure to have around, he has the heart of a lion, and he truly loved being a Celtic. Delonte was one of my favorites, I'll miss him, but at the end of the day we are a better basketball team.</p>

Ray is the best player Danny could have gotten for a reasonable price. I think it was a good move, I'm happy that we brought in another star without having to give up any of our more promising young players, and I think Ray will fit in nicely. Paul, Ray, and Al will co-exist because they are all competitors, they all want to win, and they are all completely different players. The naysayers try to bring up the point that Paul and Ray are two All-Star wings who need shots, but they are completely different playes, and both are unselfish. Paul is the power player, the slasher, he'll play a little in the post. Ray moves exceptionally well without the ball, will get easy opportunities off kick-outs from Rondo, and he doesn't need an iso to be effective.</p>

I think the number one difference we will see within the offense is not just the talent level, but the movement. We have gone through three straight years of our offense being completely stationary. The only guy who really moved well off the ball was Ricky Davis, and even then, he needed his iso's. Nobody cut, nobody moved without the ball, nobody set screens, nobody ran flashed out. Everybody stood in one position, therefore making us very easy to defend. Hell, we couldn't break a 2-3 zone. With Rondo running the show and Ray moving so well without the ball, I think our offensive sets as a whole will be more effective.</p>

Another thing is that Ray is a true leader. He wants to be around the team, he wants to put in work, he wants to tutor the young guys. He even said himself that he likes to make sure some of the young guys are getting rest, he might call some guys up to see if they want to go to the movies, etc. We really didn't have that before. We had Al and Perk hanging out, Paul and Delonte, Gerald and TA, and that was really it. Everyone had their own little cliques within the team, but I think Ray will help bring us closer together as a unit.</p>

I'm optimistic, but Danny needs to fill the holes before I can say we will be able to do damage in the playoffs. I think we will certainly make the playoffs, but I don't think we'll get passed the first round with this exact group. We need a veteran backup point guard, we need a big body off the bench, and we need to improve defensively.</p>

 

I wasn't a fan of the trade. It's a good stop gap trade and Ray will make this team much better for sure. However, he's 32 and if you look it up, MOST of all the great SG's start to diminish around that age. Not a huge drop off but the numbers start to drop. It's not always the scoring, but the FG%, assists, steals, rebounds. Some of it dips and they are less effective. It may not be this year or maybe not the next, but in 3-4 years he's going to have declinded.</p>

I don't think that's a great asset to aquire with the #5 pick in a very deeply talented draft. Ilike what charlotte did with the #8 pick in this draft by being able to aquire a solid SG who is 26 years olds.</p>

Getting rid of Wally was a nice touch though, even if it did cost us Delonte who I thought would be a solid combo guard off the bench. (which is where he belongs)</p>

I thought keeping the draft pick ment dealing Paul so I'm glad we did something, but IMO it was hardly the best deal we could have made.</p>

 

Do you guys think Danny will do another trade before the season starts?

 

yeah possibly but nothing spectacular.</p>

we still need a big body to help out Al and Perk in the post. Powe may be a gamer and a tough kid, but he's not able to guard talented big men as he gives up too much size.</p>

you can't count on Theo to give you even 70 games so he's not the answer either. He's also the only other C who is 6'10" or taller.</p>

guess we're playing Suns style small ball.. minus the speed of course</p>

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticKing)</div><div class='quotemain'>Do you guys think Danny will do another trade before the season starts?</div>That remains to be seen. Hopefully Ainge is able to acquire an interior defender than can step out and defend the pick and roll because Jefferson is best suited underneath the basket where he can mask his inability to defend post players. Jeff Foster and Marcus Camby come to mind. However, the best solution would be to aggressively pursue a trade for Garnett [Ratliff, Jefferson, Telfair, Green, protected '08 first, Minnesota's future-first from the Wally Szczerbiak trade] since his offensive ability and overall defensive talent and versatility allows the Celtics to start Kendrick Perkins alongside him since Garnett is able to guard perimeter big men. The other major need is a point guard that can convert open perimeter shots and allow Pierce to run the offense. Charlie Bell, Luther Head, and Juan Carlos Navarro come to mind. Rondo is not an adequate half-court point guard and since Pierce, Allen, and Jefferson are best in a half-court offense, the Celtics will not be running too much this season. Rondo is a poor shooter and when both Jefferson and Pierce or Jefferson and Allen are double-teamed, our point guard will be wide open. We need a guy that can hit these shots and as far as I can tell, Rondo is not that guy. </p>

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticKing)</div><div class='quotemain'>Do you guys think Danny will do another trade before the season starts?</div></p>

It's possible, but I'm not sure. I think it may happen, but I also think that it is a strong possibility that we hold on to Theo Ratliff's contract until the trading deadline, where it will be more valuable (especially if he can play a little bit this year). I think if Theo can stay relatively healthy, he may very well be the veteran big that we need.</p>

 

If Theo plays [passes his physical], his contract value becomes far less valuable. Expiring contracts, in the '05 CBA, aren't as valuable as before. The most attractive aspect of Theo's contract is that it's basically free. Insurance will pay for his guaranteed salary, making the contract highly appealing to owners trying to save some money. We don't want him to play.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Premier)</div><div class='quotemain'>If Theo plays [passes his physical], his contract value becomes far less valuable. Expiring contracts, in the '05 CBA, aren't as valuable as before. The most attractive aspect of Theo's contract is that it's basically free. Insurance will pay for his guaranteed salary, making the contract highly appealing to owners trying to save some money. We don't want him to play.</div></p>

I understand insurance pays off the salary if he doesn't play, but to a team that is trying to avoid luxury tax land in the coming years, an expiring contract is valuable. Having Theo, who is one of the top shot blockers and a professional, suit up will be appealing to some owners. Having Theo actually give them something on the court this season, while also knowing you will be saving roughly $12 million at the end of the year, is a plus.</p>

 

I'm of the opinion that Theo's injuries have rendered him useless. I fully doubt he will play and if he does, I expect him to be completely ineffective. I understand that his shot-block ability was based on superb timing, but he does not have any lift left in his legs whatsoever. We are better suited if he does not play, insurance pays for his contract, and we trade him to a team looking to save money [Phoenix, Denver, New York]. If he played and passed his physical, his expiring is only semi-valuable since the new CBA lessened the value of an expiring contract. Remember why we trade Antoine Walker [the first time]? It was for Chris Mills because the owners wanted to save money by acquiring a contract that insurance paid for while trading a guy that they had to pay for.

 

I'm not expecting much of anything out of Theo either, but I'm just saying it is a possibility. He's in a contract year, he claims to be healthy, and I'm sure he'll want to go out and get himself one more contract for some insurance money before he decides to hang it up. It is not out of the question that he may be able to contribute a little, whether it is likely or not.</p>

Of course the owners wanted to take back Chris Mills in the first Antoine trade, but let's also not forget that they took on Raef LaFrentz's horrid contract in the same deal. Of course you want to throw in a freebie in a deal like that. Theo's contract is more valuable than you're making it out to have, in my opinion. When a team wants to cut salary and/or avoid luxury tax land in the coming years, bringing on an expiring $12 million deal is a big help.</p>

 

The basic point is that it is in the best interest of the Celtics for Theo to fail his physical, making his contract more valuable than otherwise.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Premier)</div><div class='quotemain'>The basic point is that it is in the best interest of the Celtics for Theo to fail his physical, making his contract more valuable than otherwise.</div></p>

I disagree. I think it's in the best interest of the team for Theo to be able to contribute.</p>