NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rose in early May to its strongest since the September failure of Lehman Brothers, with rising expectations the economy may be in the last stages of the recession, a survey showed on Friday. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of confidence for May rose to 67.9 from 65.1 in April. This was above economists' median expectation of a reading of 67.0, according to a Reuters poll. The index of consumer expectations jumped to 69.0 in early May, its highest since October 2007 and up from 63.1 in April. "Consumer confidence rose in early May as consumers became increasingly convinced that the economy is in its final stages of contraction, and paradoxically, that their personal finances would remain dismal and keep their spending at reduced levels for the foreseeable future," the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-co...66.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= I hope the economy is turning. In my little business world, I don't feel it turning . . . but Oregon seems to lag behind in both when the recession hits and when the economy recovers. Nike jut announced 500 layoffs in Beaverton (1,750 cuts from Nike overall). I see Joes going out of business, rumors of other companies in danger, Chrysler and GM closing thousands of franchises. Still, I get the sense this thing is turning around . . . let's hope so.
There is nothing in the fundamentals that should give anyone any hope that the economy is turning around. Credit is still difficult to get, we're still losing jobs at an alarming rate and with our profligate spending, taxes and inflation are both going to increase.
It's an odd situation. Investing in the stock market is being discouraged by Obama as raised capitol gains taxes by 35% and he wants the markets to have a substantially lower wave. I agree with the later, but not the former. He wants the feds to have part ownership in large american companies and also give them over to union ownership, ala Europe. Again, I see his thinking, but the bond holders are being horribly raped and it has placed the national debt into an area we shall never hope to recover from. He wants a single payer national health care system- I may disagree, but it's a matter of opinion. In some respects it would be better and in some it would be worse. But to do so at the expense of millions and millions of jobs and people not getting the care they need, unnecessary deaths, far less advancements in medicine... seems disasterous. On the other hand, it provides a bona fide health care policy to every person residing in the country which is something most people would agree we need in some form or another. Housing market is starting to pick up, but so are forclosures. We are now bracing for the commercial property sector to fully collapse and the impact is going to be unbearable. Companies that have been supporting the economy are now going flat on earnings... So it's definately mixed signals. I sure hope it overall positive.
This article is not a little old, but take a look. Hard to see any signs up improving consumer confidence there. https://mail.google.com/a/google.com/?AuthEventSource=SSO#label/economics/120b25c3f80a51bd
I am not a huge fan of credit... I have 1 house payment and 1 vehicle payment... that is it. Credit was being handed out like candy there for awhile. There was a time when I had to move into a pretty nasty appt for a very short time while a house I was having built was being finished... and some of the very low income residents there all had monster AV systems... tricked out stereos in their cars... new furnature... nice toys... all things I couldn't afford even with a good job. "No down payment? No credit? No problem!"
Good point. Now that credit is harder to get, I wonder how confidence is up. It could be that prices have dropped and gas remains reasonable. I noticed last night that more stores have some really good sales to attract buyers.
I'm lost. You supply an old link to say hard to see consumer confidence improving. I put out a current link taht says consumer confidence is rising. I would think the more recent link would be a better indication if consumer confidence is rising . . . or is it that the source in the link that you disagree with?
Confidence was so low it may not have had anywhere to go but up. I don't know. I refinanced my house right in the middle of when the banks and everything were supposed to be out of money and I didn't have a problem. Credit and dept probably doesn't make people feel great. I know at times I was in a hole so bad I didn't think I'd ever get out... and credit was a big part of that. Making min payments on a $10,000 credit card is recipe for disaster.
Commercial real estate will be the biggest test. Look for more and more signs of cracks by fall. The holiday buying season might help the situation but after that its more than likely too much for the market to bear.
I'm surprised our economy hasn't been reduced to bartering small wooden figurines and animal pelts, seeing as how the economic sector (as well as every other branch of government) is now ruled solely a bumbling, clueless, Marxist former lawyer turned fake messiah
Potentially because very few of the people I know can a) whittle wooden figurines, b) hunt and kill animals with pelts, c) do anything with the pelts if they did manage to kill it, and d) grow enough food to subside on while whittling. My skill is a relatively specialized one. And yet, even if I went to the library and checked out a book, and learned how and wanted to grow corn in my yard, the homeowners' association says I can't. So, imho, the "bumbling, Marxist former lawyer" doesn't have a lot of leeway in his scheme to make major changes in our way of life. And personally, I haven't been too impressed with the results. But here's hoping he's able to pull off what 150 years of communistic thinkers haven't been able to do--make it somehow efficient and profitable.
I was at a BBQ with MBA's from USC over the weekend...they claim that from their 06 class, 40% are unemployed. Getting a job is tough, and when they do get a job, its for a pretty low wage (at least for an MBA from a decent school).
It was the line before that that I felt was good news . . . not great news and not saying thre isn't a long road ahead. But 3 months ago I couldn't find any good news (remember your post about dow at 6500 and how bad things are). I think even the optomistic people realize it will be a long up and down road to recovery . . . but the question of if a recovery is in sight can now at least be debated.
Meanwhile a poster here graduates with an impressive business resume from OSU and lands a job within 6 months. Just never can tell in this economy. Maybe those USC boys aren't in the biggest hurry to get a job . . . what with thier trust accounts and all.
