Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...ord-high-saturday/?postshare=5511444401234491

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday

National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Records date back to October 1978.



Jinlun Zhang, a University of Washington scientist, studying Antarctic ice. “Why would sea ice be increasing? Although the rate of increase is small, it is a puzzle to scientists.”

In a new study in the Journal of Climate, Zhang finds both strengthening and converging winds around the South Pole can explain 80 percent of the increase in ice volume which has been observed.

“The polar vortex that swirls around the South Pole is not just stronger than it was when satellite records began in the 1970s, it has more convergence, meaning it shoves the sea ice together to cause ridging,” the study’s press release explains. “Stronger winds also drive ice faster, which leads to still more deformation and ridging. This creates thicker, longer-lasting ice, while exposing surrounding water and thin ice to the blistering cold winds that cause more ice growth.”

But no one seems to have a conclusive answer as to why winds are behaving this way.

“I haven’t seen a clear explanation yet of why the winds have gotten stronger,” Zhang told Michael Lemonick of Climate Central.

Some point to stratospheric ozone depletion, but a new study published in the Journal of Climate notes that computer models simulate declining – not increasing – Antarctic sea ice in recent decades due to this phenomenon (aka the ozone “hole”).

“This modeled Antarctic sea ice decrease in the last three decades is at odds with observations, which show a small yet statistically significant increase in sea ice extent,” says the study, led by Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Barnes.

A recent study by Lorenzo Polvani and Karen Smith of Columbia University says the model-defying sea ice increase may just reflect natural variability.

If the increase in ice is due to natural variability, Zhang says, warming from manmade greenhouse gases should eventually overcome it and cause the ice to begin retreating.

“If the warming continues, at some point the trend will reverse,” Zhang said.

However, a conclusion of the Barnes study is that the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer – now underway – may slow/delay Antarctic warming and ice melt.

Ultimately, it’s apparent the relationship between ozone depletion, climate warming from greenhouse gases, natural variability, and how Antarctic ice responds is all very complicated. In sharp contrast, in the Arctic, there seems to be a relatively straight forward relationship between temperature and ice extent.

Thus, in the Antarctic, we shouldn’t necessarily expect to witness the kind of steep decline in ice that has occurred in the Arctic.

“…the seeming paradox of Antarctic ice increasing while Arctic ice is decreasing is really no paradox at all,” explains Climate Central’s Lemonick. “The Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land, while the Antarctic is land surrounded by ocean. In the Arctic, moreover, you’ve got sea ice decreasing in the summer; at the opposite pole, you’ve got sea ice increasing in the winter. It’s not just an apples-and-oranges comparison: it’s more like comparing apple pie with orange juice.”

 

The "average world temperature" is 1.08 degrees cooler than it was in 1998, when rising temperatures reversed. There is still global climate change, but no longer global climate warming.

 

I'm not looking to stir up shit, but would you mind sharing the URL/source of that graphic? It doesn't jive with the temperature data I'm looking at here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

 

NASA? What do those hacks know about anything? They thought Matt Damon was dead on Mars when he clearly WAS NOT.

 

Pretty OK movie. I thought the home-made-bomb-detonation-brake-thing was a little stupid, but entertaining nonetheless.

 

Haven't seen the movie yet actually. I did read the book, and enjoyed it.

 

Fair request.

You can start by studying this site. http://www.remss.com/research/climate

Their research shows the most northern hemisphere has continued to warm. However, the tropics and south have stopped warming and cooled slightly. The overall affect is a lower “average global temperature".

Here is another chart that goes back to 1980 that shows the rise, the fall, and then leveling off of the average global temperature. This graph matches the original chart I posted for the same time frame.



The problem with the charts in the link you posted is, they go back so many decades they hide the recent global cooling that has taken place over the last 17 years. Temps is the USA are higher, but not world wide.

 

The link in my post does not work for me here. (not sure why) You may need to do a Google search for:

Climate Analysis, Remote Sensing Systems

 

CONGRATS BROS WE DID IT.

 

What about "the blob" off the oregon coast? I think the ocean is absorbing more carbon an heat than anticipated.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

 

I am sure glad the scientists and researchers finally found the “blob” of warm water off of the coast of Oregon and Washington. It took them long enough.

We ocean fishermen have been fishing that warm water blob for decades, only we call it the tuna highway.

The warm water blob starts around Hawaii every year at the end of winter. It crosses the ocean to northern Baja, picks up the waiting Albacore tuna schools. Then the blob, or tuna highway, moves north every spring and usually arrives off of Oregon coast around the end of June. When the blob arrives, the Albacore fishing goes off big time.

The Albacore that we do not catch in the PNW blob leave about this time of the year to travel to the waters around Japan to spawn.

The Native American Indians have been fishing the warm water blob for thousands of years. Excavation of thousands of year old Native American Indian settlements along the Oregon and WA coast has provided remnants of tuna skeletons.

 

It was only around 95 here today. All is good.

 

I encourage everybody to actually read through the findings here.

So at best you can say the models over-predict the rate of increase in global temperature, but the trends still point up in the data.

 

Wrong again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...rctic-sea-ice-has-not-recovered-in-7-visuals/

The most misleading aspect of all this supposed measurement is that it is not a true volume measurement, but basically a 2 dimensional measurement of surface area.

Over 90% of an iceberg's volume (and mass) is underwater. As an iceberg thaws and breaks up, the pieces rise to the surface and cover additional surface. So an increase in sea ice by this measurement is most likely consistent with continual thawing and breaking up of sea ice due to climate change.

This can be demonstrated with this easy experiment I learned in first grade.

One ice cube will not cover the top of your drink, but smash the ice cube into slush and it will.