Tennessee ended last season with a better regular season record (13-3) than Pittsburgh (12-4) and beat them in the regular season 31-14, but Pittsburgh was actually the better team and won the Super Bowl. Last year's meeting was very misleading, as the Steelers out-gained the Titans 5.7 yards per play to 5.3 yppl and lost because of an uncharacteristic -4 in turnover margin. That game was in Tennessee and the Steelers aren't likely to make those mistakes at home. Tennessee also isn't as good of a team this season, as their stout defense took a big hit with the departure of DT Albert Haynesworth, who is one of the NFL's best defensive players. Haynesworth occupied multiple blockers and allowed his fellow linemen to make plays while still recording 51 tackles and 8.5 sacks. Tennessee has been great in run defense the last two seasons with Haynesworth playing at a high level, but the Titans defense was below average in the 4 games that he missed in 2007 (he actually missed 5, but starters didn't play in week 17 against Tennessee), allowing 4.7 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.2 ypr against an average defense. The pass rush also disappeared in the games that Haynesworth missed that season and Tennessee's defense will be noticeably worse without their big man clogging the middle of the line. I still rate the Titans' defense as better than average and the offense is about average on a yards per play basis while limiting turnovers. Pittsburgh probably won't be quite as good defensively as they were last season (4.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team), but they're still likely to be the best in the league and the offense should be a bit better given better health at running back. My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points, so the line is about right, but Tennessee applies to a negative 4-15 ATS game 1 situation and the favorite has been covering at a high rate on Thursday's in recent years (25-5-2 ATS since 2004 and 59% ATS since 1980).
