Quick thoughts - 7-8 would've been ideal, this is a little much - Now Barg, Hedo and Jose won't be contractual issues for a few years, that's a good thing - Why announce this now?
so hedo at approx 10.5 million; bargs @ 10 mil; caledron @ 8 mil and bosh @ 20 mill + if he resigns. thats approx 50 million in contractual obligation for the 2010 season= colangelo is fucking over the raptors
My initial reaction: This had to be done this offseason. If you think Bargnani's good enough to be apart of your core (which isn't that wild an assumption), extending him this off-season makes the most sense. Let's just say that he averages his January-April numbers this upcoming season (21ppg, 7rpg, 1.5bpg, 48% shooting). He makes $10mill/year easily, and you have the very real possibility that multiple suitors inflate his price even more. For comparison's sake, let's look at the contracts that other promising center's signed coming off their rookie contract: * Samuel Dalembert - Six years $60 million * Tyson Chandler - Five years $54 million * Emeka Okafor - Six years $72 million * Andrew Bogut - Five years $72.5 million * Andrew Bynum - Four years $58 million * Nene - Six years $60 million * Andris Biedrins - Six years $62 million * Troy Murphy - Six years $57 million * Chris Kaman - Five years $52.5 million * Eddy Curry - Six years $57 million * Memo Okur - Five years $50 million Bargnani is right there at the bottom of that list now, next to a player who he's frequently compared to. When you factor in his age (23), then you start to realize that this extension has the potential to be a real bargain down the road. We're taking advantage of his development being delayed because of an injury and a ridiculously poor coach to lock him in at a conservative price.
Also Bas, a $7-8mill per year extension never could have happened. He's due to make $8.5 million on the last year of his rookie contract. If he was getting offers that poor, there's no doubt in my mind that his agent waits until this season is over before negotiating. After that season, you either know he's a bust and not worth building around, or his price has shot up past $10 million. Having this guy on our team is going to be a risk, regardless. I think we have to come to terms with that reality. I personally believe he's worth it. I'm sure many others think he isn't. But believing that keeping him on this team won't present risks is being unrealistic.
chutney u disappoint me. all those contracts above are terrible with the exception of maybe okur. other gm's awarding perennial underachievers with overachiever contracts isnt justification to do the same with bargnani. i say let bargs hit the open market in the same year as lebron and the other hall famers and then we will see bargs intrinsic value.
I think it'll be the other way around actually. As of now, there are a crapload of teams who have positioned themselves to have "superstar" cap space for 2010. When you consider the lack of superstar free agents that have left their own team since the salary cap was instituted, you realize that there will be a lot of teams with a lot of money with very few avenues to spend it all. Naturally that is going to spill into the next tier of free agents, who will benefit immensely. Furthermore, non-franchise center's are always overpaid. That's just the reality of the NBA. You couple those two facts together and it's clear that Bargnani would get much more than $10 million in 2010. It's also worth comparing the type of players that all those dudes were when they extended. Bargnani compares quite favourably to a lot of them. He's always been excellent offensively and he's only becoming more well-rounded in that area. Defensively, he's made great strides and is a very capable man-to-man defender. He's also a pretty decent shotblocker.
a big with bargnani skills and for his age.. thats a guaranteed 10million right there; regardless of the market. he probably wont start earning that money till maybe a yr or two down the road but i definately think BC did the right thing here in locking him up. who knows he might put up numbers like chutney said.. thats already to me is full worth, if he puts those numbers up on a consistent nightly basis.
so teams will settle for bargnani because they cant get bosh, lebron, wade, amare, joe johnson, brandon roy? highly unlikely considering the new financial constraints teams are facing and the new cba redefining the entire landscape. plus, my biggest concern is that colangelo has us allocating our resources irresponsibly. awarding 50 million to bargs, hedo, caledron and bosh is just stupid.
what's the point in using bad contracts in the past to justify bad contracts now? bargnani's deal is horrible for the raptors. so in judging his contract we should pretend that he put up numbers that he never actually put up(those weren't his january-april numbers)? doesn't really make sense. based on his production at this point, he's basically an MLE level player and the raptors just threw 10 mil a year at him for basically no reason. he's a bad rebounder and defender. the only positive thing he really brings to the table is his scoring ability and he's not consistent enough there. he's shown that he can go months at a time(or even entire seasons if you look back a year) where his shot just isn't falling and he basically contributes nothing to the team. he also doesn't really draw fouls at a high rate and is assisted on the vast majority of his baskets. i really don't see any way to defend the deal at this point.
Not sure where you got those numbers, but they aren't accurate. His actual Jan-April numbers were 18.95 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 1.15 BPG on 46.7% FGA. BNM
They won't target him as a franchise player, but the dude will get a lot of money if he sustains (or improves) on the numbers he's putting up now. The 2010 summer will almost be the exact opposite of this one. Right now you have free agents squeezed into weak contracts because of the lack of serious bidders. Next year you'll have more bidders than there are quality players and Bargnani, because of his unique skill-set and position, will be one of the players that reaps the benefits of that. You yourself mentioned that Memo Okur's contract was probably the only reasonable one on that list. The Bargnani that Colangelo's paying for essentially matched his numbers from January to April (a little poorer rebounding, but a little better shooting/shotblocking and much better defense), and he's only 23. He's a bad rebounder (mediocre defensive rebounder, non-existent offensive rebounder) and a weak help defender. I'm not sure why he keeps being characterized as a piss-poor overall defender. One of the reasons he's worth keeping IMO, is because he can guard the center position. Unlike similar offensive mismatches at the center position, he has the unique ability to actually prevent his man from making those points back on offense. In one-on-one situations, he plays good positionally and has the length to block or disrupt shot attempts. Towards the end of the season he also showed an improving ability to move his feet with guards/swingmen, when switched onto them. And your summary of his offensive game is inaccurate, IMO. He's an great shooter, but also demonstrated the ability to consistently draw fouls and get to the free throw line this year. He's an excellent passer and only needs to bridge his 3 pt. shot to his driving ability with a mid-range game, to become a very versatile offensive weapon. Saying he can go through season-long shooting slumps ignores why he didn't start realizing his potential until about January this year. He had to deal with a coach who didn't understand how to utilize or develop his skillset and it led to a frustratingly inconsistent role on the team. He also had to deal with a deviated septum through the entire '07-'08 season (the one where he sucked ass). I don't think it's a coincidence that he blossomed once he had a new coach and was the team's firmly established center. Thanks for the clarification. I think I mixed up his January numbers with his January-April numbers. I know that when he began starting at center after the JO injury he started lighting it up and his numbers were about where I quoted them as (for the first 15-20 games). They tailed off a bit over the course of the rest of the season.
He's not just a bad rebounder, he's a historically BAD rebounder - the worst rebounder of any starting 7-footer since Brad Sellers over 20 years ago. Perhaps this is why: http://www.82games.com/0809/0809TOR1.HTM His +/- was -248, by far the worst on the team. More details here: http://www.82games.com/0809/08TOR14.HTM If you look at the On Court/Off Court Stats, you'll see that Toronto was a MUCH worse defensive team when Bargnani was in the game than when he was on the bench. With him in the game, Toronto was outscored by their opponents by 248 points and gave up 113.1 points per 100 possessions. With him on the bench, Toronto actually outscored their opponents by 17 points and gave up 106.2 points per 100 possessions. That's a HUGE negative impact for one player to have on his team's defense. He averaged 3.9 FTA/36. Nothing exceptional about that, and not much of an improvement over the previous season (3.3 FTA/36). He averaged 1.4 AST/36 - below average for a starting big man. Outside of rebounding, his inability to create his own shot and score in the paint are probably his two biggest weaknesses. 75% of his shot attempts were outside jump shots - and he was assisted on 81% of them. Over all he was assisted on 68% of his made field goals. That's an extremely high percentage for a big man and highlights his inability to create for himself, and his almost non-existent offensive rebounding. In 16 games in January, his averages were: 19.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 0.6 BPG. March was his best month over all. In 12 games, he averaged: 20.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 1.3 BPG. That's the closest he came to averaging the 21/7/1.5 you originally stated - and it was for only 12 games. He tailed of in April to: 16.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 2.5 BPG. BNM
even when bargnani was playing well last year, he had an off month. after "breaking out" in january, he shot 41% from the field and 31% from 3 in february.
Could be a shrewd move if Bargs has a bust-out season this year and becomes a stud, but shit, like that's going to happen...
