Blackhawks falling apart.

DP · Jul 9, 2010

PaintItBlackhawks.com

Jim Neveau, PIB Co-conspirator

With all of the salary cap crunching that has gone on during this off-season for the Chicago Blackhawks, all signs seemed to point to the Hawks making a big push to keep as many of their restricted free agents as they could. Ben Eager and Andrew Ladd were dealt in separate trades to Atlanta, and as things progressed, it appeared that Chicago was going to do everything in their power to sign Niklas Hjalmarsson and Antti Niemi to extensions.

That plan was thrown off the tracks on Friday, however, when news broke via TSN that the San Jose Sharks had signed Hjalmarsson to an offer sheet, worth $14 million over four years. The average cap hit on this deal would be $3.5 million, and that figure probably falls outside of the Hawks’ price range if they want to keep both players.

The move is an interesting one by the Sharks. The biggest factor in the decision was certainly a desire to bolster their blue line (especially with a goaltender in net not used to high pressure situations in Antero Niittymaki), but a contributing factor was likely an effort to undermine the conference champion Blackhawks. The Hawks, as you’ll recall, swept the Sharks out of the playoffs back in May, and really embarrassed them with their dominating play in that series. This move, done ostensibly to help out the Sharks defensively, has the added benefit of putting the Blackhawks into a precarious situation cap-wise, and really jeopardizes what they were trying to do in attempting to keep both Niemi and Hjalmarsson.

On the flip side of the coin here is the fact that Hjalmarsson had to sign the offer sheet in order for any of this to take place. It may seem like a pure cash grab for a player to sign an offer sheet, but truth be told, we aren’t sure of how negotiations between Stan Bowman and “Team Hjal” were going before this, so perhaps Niklas just felt that his interests would be better served by trying to move things along.

The Blackhawks have seven days to match the offer sheet that San Jose signed Hjalmarsson to, and if they decline to match it, they will be compensated with San Jose’s first and third round draft picks next season. If the Hawks elect to match the offer, they will be paying the Swede $3.5 million a year, which would be more than they were paying Kris Versteeg before his trade to Toronto.

Putting this in the clearest terms possible, it appears unlikely now that the Hawks will be able to keep both Hjalmarsson and Niemi. With that in mind, the question becomes this: should the Hawks match the offer sheet and lose Niemi, or should they let Hjalmarsson walk, take their draft picks, and focus on an all-out effort to re-sign Niemi?

Arguments to Match Hjalmarsson’s Offer Sheet

-Blue line depth is a huge issue for the Hawks. They already have dealt away Brent Sopel to Atlanta, and all indications are that they are not going to re-sign Kim Johnsson or Nick Boynton. This leaves Chicago with three defensemen under contract (Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Brian Campbell), and with Jordan Hendry and Hjalmarsson un-signed.

Adding the loss of Hjalmarsson to this situation wouldn’t help matters at all, and would probably make it necessary for the Blackhawks to bring back a guy like Boynton in addition to bringing along some blue line talent from the minors. Shawn Lalonde would be a likely candidate to be brought to Chicago in that situation, but further trades or signings could be in the offing as well.

-With the loss of Brent Sopel, the Hawks are a bit short right now in the shot-blocking department. Yes, Keith and Seabrook do their fair share, but outside of Sopel no one on the Hawks was more adept at blocking shots last year than Hjalmarsson. The loss of shot-blocking prowess would be a huge blow to the team’s penalty killing unit, and would also allow teams to game plan around simply avoiding the top defensive line on the ice if they want good opportunities to score.

-Hjalmarsson has the potential to be one of the best two-way players in the game. Scotty Bowman doesn’t throw around praise lightly (just read Ken Dryden’s excellent book “The Game” if you want some examples of his feelings towards players), so when he says that he sees a guy as a Nicklas Lidstrom type of player, you had better believe he’s something special.

-Antti Niemi’s salary arbitration is not likely to go very well for the Blackhawks. With the contract that Jaroslav Halak got from the St. Louis Blues (4 years for $15 million), Niemi can expect to get a similar amount in arbitration with the Hawks.

Instead of going that route with a goaltender who hasn’t even started a full regular season’s worth of games in his career, the Hawks would perhaps be better suited matching the Hjalmarsson offer-sheet, letting Niemi go, and then bringing in a cheaper veteran free agent to compete with Cristobal Huet for the starting job in Chicago. Whether that would be a guy like Marty Turco or Jose Theodore remains to be seen, but there are other options available at the goaltending spot should the Hawks decide to part with Niemi.

Arguments to Let Hjalmarsson Walk

-San Jose really put the Hawks between a rock and a hard place with the contract they offered to Niklas Hjalmarsson. GM Doug Wilson undoubtedly knew that it would put Chicago in a tough spot financially to match the offer sheet, and an opportunity to simultaneously improve his roster and hurt their Western Conference rival.

The Sharks also put themselves into a precarious situation as well with the offer to Hjalmarsson. The Sharks currently have 18 players under contract (9 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies), and are about $6.1 million under the salary cap. If the Hawks don’t match the offer seat on Niklas, the Sharks will add an eighth defenseman to their depth chart, and will only have about $2.6million remaining in cap room to sign at least three more forwards.

It will be interesting to see how the Sharks would line up on the offensive side of the puck next season with the number of young, unproven players that will populate their roster. Needless to say, if the Hawks decline to match the offer sheet, they will pick up San Jose’s first and third round picks in next year’s draft, and leave the Sharks in an odd situation with their depth chart.

-If the Hawks let Hjalmarsson walk, it would certainly mean that they would have enough money to give goaltender Antti Niemi a contract extension. With how well he played in the postseason, and with the veteran like calm he played with during just about every game he was in the crease for, the Hawks are definitely better off with him in the crease than a scatter-brained Cristobal Huet.

Even if the Hawks bring back Niemi, they could still send Huet down to Rockford, and use the cap savings of the move to sign a veteran back-up in case Niemi falters. Theodore and Turco were already mentioned as possible replacements for Niemi, but they would also be very good back-ups to him if the Hawks decide to go that route.

-Lost in all the discussion over which player the Hawks should keep between the Finn and the Swede is whether or not Hjalmarsson is even worth the $3.5 million a season he will be paid by San Jose. Yes, he is an excellent shot-blocker, and has the potential to be a very serviceable offensive weapon, but the reality of the matter is that the Hawks could probably bring up a player from their farm system with enough grit and selflessness to be a good shot-blocker, and pay him a good chunk less than Niklas.

His offensive contributions will be missed by the Hawks, but they will still have two d-men (Keith and Campbell) capable of putting up some great numbers from the blue line, and Brent Seabrook has a good enough slap shot that he could be a valuable weapon offensively as well. When push comes to shove, even with further development Hjalmarsson would still be the fourth offensive option on the blue line for Chicago, and that simply isn’t worth the money he will be getting.

The Verdict:

If the choice in this regard is simply whether to match Hjalmarsson’s offer sheet, then the Hawks should do everything in their power to make it happen. If they feel like they need to trade a player like Tomas Kopecky to make it happen, then so be it. The fact is that Hjalmarsson is a very solid defender who could be a tremendous asset to a team in transition like Chicago.

If it becomes more an issue of which player should the Hawks keep between Niemi and Hjalmarsson, then Niklas wins out again in that debate too. Niemi is a very solid goaltender, and will likely have a successful NHL career, but the fact of the matter is that goalies can sparkle for stretches, and then completely disappear. This is especially a problem with younger goalies, and with little track record to reflect on, Niemi very well could end up being a bust in the coming years.

Hjalmarsson, on the other hand, displays skills that really aren’t subject to cold stretches that render them ineffective. He puts shots on net, can find sticks in front with those shots, and shot-blocks in a precise and effective manner that makes him a perfect player for a team whose success is predicated on allowing as few shots as possible.

That all being said, it becomes clear that the defenseman wins in a battle with the goaltender for who the Hawks should shell out the big bucks for. Yes, it will be over-paying to bring back Hjalmarsson at this rate of pay, but if the Hawks don’t want to strengthen a conference rival, while at the same time keeping some measure of depth on their blue line, then they have no choice: Niklas has to be the guy.
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Blackhawks falling apart.

DP He shoots, he scores!

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Blackhawks falling apart.

DP He shoots, he scores!

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