Blazers by the Numbers- a series of in-depth looks at this iteration of the Trailblazers

***Hey all-

I'm the FNG, Dan- and I'm kind of a numbers geek. I've worked as an analyst for the entirety of my adult life, I take that experience and I try to apply that same rational, fact based, inference driven approach to sports- particularly basketball- more specifically the Trailblazers. ***


With all of that said I wanted to take this time to say that I'll be posting at least once a week in here on a deeper statistical dive concerning the Blazers. Whether that means a team focused approach or a more in-depth look at an individual player and/or position - it's all over the place. I can be a bit wordy- so for those looking for a TL;DR version- I’m pretty good with numbers and presenting them in a way that makes sense and I’ll be doing it here weekly.


The clear place to start would seem to be with Damian Lillard, considering the meteoric return to form over the last 3 games. However, instead I wanted to focus on someone Damian highlighted in his post game interview vs. OKC, Mason Plumlee. In the postgame comments when asked, “And how about [Mason] Plumlee getting the block? There was a charge taken late—those were big plays too.”

“Mase has been… even while I was hurt, just watching him, that was one of the biggest things I noticed is how much he does for our team and our team defense. Him coming over for blocks; him coming over, helping guys out, and his man sometimes scoring (emphasis added), but him scrambling on the backline of our defense and tonight he was huge. I mean, that block. That changed the game completely. That was basically the game winner right there.”

Damian seems to be throwing some weight behind Plumlee, and quite convincingly. But there’s that one point about “his man sometimes scoring” that I wanted to point to. Lillard didn’t need to mention it- especially considering all the praise he heaped Mason’s way- yet he did. To me it’s a backhanded compliment mixed in there, but not entirely unfounded.


Plumlee has been lauded for his heart and hustle. Cheered on for a behind the back dribble on the break and a bounce pass to a cutting guard on the baseline for an easy lay up. What gets lost in all of that is that Plumlee isn’t all that great at doing things centers are supposed to do. Namely, score inside efficiently, protect the paint, and rebound. Let’s take each of these by the numbers. Over the last 6 games this is what Plumlee’s shooting stats look like; 1-5, 1-2, 1-6, 7-9, 2-8, 5-12. Other than that 7-9 game we’re not talking about hyper-efficiency here. To illustrate my point further take a look at this shot chart: HERE
You can see that his range is pretty well limited to right around the rim, as anyone who’s watched him play would suspect. However, what’s a bit concerning is that among players 6’10” & taller who have at least 4 attempts within 5ft of the rim on a nightly basis he’s 3rd from the bottom- above such powerhouse interior finishers as Jusuf Nurkic and Danillo Gallinari.(CHART HERE) For being known as a elite rim runner with some serious hops, it often seems like Plumlee is caught directly under the rim or taking off too early on the roll- thus negating some of that athleticism, forcing him t rely on size/length. Therein lies the problem, because as centers go Plumlee is lacking in both the size and length categories. He comes in with a 6’11” wingspan, which sounds okay- but when you realize that he measured taller than 6’11” at the combine that makes him a bit of an anomaly in the NBA- as the ratio has typically been 4”+ height to wingspan size. This puts him on the stubby side- and it may manifest itself in some of those attempts under the rim being bothered easily, and show up in the fact that he’s 4th in getting his shot blocked (players 6’10” & taller) yet doesn’t attempt near the amount shots the 3 in front of him do (CHART HERE) After a bit of work once can begin to see that for all the things Plumlee brings to the floor one thing he is falling short on, the ability to consistently score efficiently in the paint.


Now let’s take a look at defense. While it’s hard to truly constitute defensive impact- you can take from a lot of different places to paint a pretty consistent picture of the impact a player may or may not have on the defensive end of the court. One of the simplest ways to measure a centers defensive presence is to look at blocks. Considering that Mason is at .8 blocks per game, I’m sure he would rather not be measured by that standard… and while I’m not excluding it I’m not going to lose my mind over it because there are other ways to provide solid defense- particularly protecting the paint and being active in the pick and roll game (PnR). So how does Mason rate in the PnR game as the big on the “roll man?”(CHART HERE) Well… 27th percentile isn’t … well it’s terrible. Flat out and plainly, that’s awful. Thankfully that only counts for little more than 7% of his defensive impact. How is he in the post?(CHART HERE) 30th percentile? Ooookay…. Good news! He’s trending up here from 27th to 30th. Improvement!! Problem here is, this accounts for over 20% of his chartable defensive plays- essentially 1/5 defensive possessions is giving up a point per possession. Again… we’re not exactly looking at prime era Tim Duncan here. How about rim protection as a whole? (CHART HERE) Plumlee contests the 5th highest percentage of shots.. and does next to nothing to influence percentages, allowing 57.2% on contested shots! How is that even possible? According to Seth Partnow’s formula for points saved, Plumlee is a net negative at -0.6 Pts/PG. So by nearly every measureable Plumlee’s defense comes up wanting at the least. One can appreciate the hustle to chase down a fast break and pin a would be bunny lay up off the backboard. That kind of stuff is great, necessary within a team even- however if you’ve got a starting center out there who plays a net negative on every given night, he better be getting a chase down block once a game… (remember he averages LESS than a block per game).


Lastly, there’s rebounding. Considering Mason has one double digit rebounding game in the last 8, this one probably isn’t going to go much better. Once again, I’ll refer to the wonderful people at Nylon Calculus
(these guys do some AMAZING work) for some contextual rebounding numbers (CHART HERE). Essentially what these numbers say is that Plumlee chases rebounds like a mad man- empirical evidence of that beloved hustle!- however, he comes up well short on endeavors on both sides of the court. On the offensive boards, among players with at least a 30% chase rate, Plumlee manages to secure a lower percentage than anyone else- securing barely over 28% of the time. This means that he goes after them a lot, but hardly comes out ahead. High attempt, low success rate. Not exactly a good thing. How about on the defensive side of things? Among players with a 35% chase rate Plumlee does do a bit better, coming in above the cellar floor- but still registering in the bottom third at a shade over 36% (36.2) When you consider that guys like Hassan Whiteside and Andre Drummond are securing over 50% you begin to see how big of a disparity there is between sub-par, solid, and elite level rebounders there is.


While I’m sure anyone reading this feels I’m being unduly harsh to Plum-Dog-Millionaire, I don’t mean to tear the young fella down. The eye test on him was always two fold- on one end you have endless effort, heart and hustle- mixed up in a 6’11” package capable of leading the break and threading a pass that most guards can’t/won’t make. On the other hand you have a guy who constantly gets destroyed by larger frontcourts- reference Whiteside, Steven Adams, Nikola Vucevic, Anthony Davis, etc. – on both the boards and the score line. Personally I think Plumlee is a fantastic high energy big that is perfect for 18 minutes a night off the bench. He would hardly ever be matched up with an overpowering big capable of dominating him inside, and you could use his playmaking skills to help further facilitate 2nd unit offense- while also injecting some needed energy/hustle into the 1st unit as they come back on the floor. However, keeping him as a starting option for anything longer than this year just doesn’t bare out in any way as a path for success.


Having read this, how do you feel about Plumlee and his future here in Portland? Should he stay the starter and be given the chance to prove his worth there? Maybe he should be pushed to a reserve role where he can be better used in spot minutes? Or perhaps he should be packaged up and moved in a deal that brings in a big that is stronger in one/all of the areas mentioned? Please take a minute and discuss what you think below- or what you think of this piece in general. I hope you all enjoyed it and I welcome all the feedback you have to give constructive or otherwise!

 

Thanks for the analysis.

Blazers fans love visible hustle and visible heart more than results.

(Example: Batum)

 

Good post man! But I think the stats on the PnR is missing some context. Portland's strategy on the PnR is for the big man to sag into the paint, and our guards are not particularly good on defense. It makes more sense to use Plumlee's quickness to hedge PnRs rather than protect the paint, since he's not a great rim protector by any stretch of the imagination. I don't think this stat is necessarily fair to him.

Also, team defense plays a huge role. Guess who is in the 91 percentile on PnR defense? LaMarcus Aldridge. Pretty sure if you looked up LMA last year, he wouldn't be where he's at.

LOVE Nylon Calculus. The rebounding numbers match the eye test with the entire team. There's a lot of hustle, but hustle only gets you so far.

 

What does iteration mean?

 

Say again?

 

Great post

 

Thanks.

 

Solid post again.

Plums was a worthwhile investment this summer but it is becoming increasingly clear that he is NOT the CotF, unless a rim protecting rebounder is at PF next to him. But as a bench piece on a deep team, I think he can definitely work.

Sidebar: Nylon Calculus has been the best new discovery for me this season. Love their graphs.

 

Tldr

 

Cuz I'm at work.

 

Hi PapaG

 

Yes- context does play a part as well as scheme concerning defense. I didn't want to go too far down that rabbit hole but you've twisted my arm. For those that don't know- the basic defense that the Blazer bigs run is based of the ICE principle- or in the Blazers case I've heard them yell "blue" (for reference- great breakdown of the whole scheme). That in essence, due to Plumlee's limitations that I describe hurt his overall effectiveness on the defensive end. I don't have access to the historical numbers right now, (Synergy is mean like that) but I actually will have my own Synergy account here in a month so I'll be sure to revisit these for clarification- but I would assume that Plumlee's numbers were a bit better based on his performance in Brooklyn.

As for how LMA measures up defensively in the PnR- I actually ran those numbers quite a bit last season and he was very good. Aldridge would constantly meet and "push" back up to the top of the key- so much as to pick up a switch in the PnR game. While he isn't Anthony Davis, he was way above average, especially for his size and how awful the help defense was from Lillard, for his position. Yes team composition helps a great deal as well- Aldridge currently has the matador defense of Parker/Ginobili in front of him but is backed up by all world defenders Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan, respectively, behind him. Those guys mixed with LMA's flexibility bot inside and outside combine to make a rather ridiculous defensive frontcourt. However, that doesn't diminish what LaMarcus did last year, and years past. His defensive numbers often went unnoticed as he typically held opponents well below their expected averages from the field - if you go to Nylon Calculus the 14-15 numbers are still available- and while he was a net negative in "points saved" he held opponents to 45% at the rim. Two things here, his points saved metric is skewed by constantly switching- I've discussed this with Seth Partnow and he has revised his formula a bit to reflect as such this year- the second being that LMA was in the company of Gobert, Ibaka, and Bogut- pretty much the who's who of interior defense.

As I stated before- defensive metrics are harder to quantify- which is why I brought up a couple of examples, however- having looked back at Plumlee last year- he still doesn't show up very well. So it's kind of a ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ situation to say the least. Bottom line- I like Plumlee but he comes up short on that side of court no matter how you slice it.

 

wow.

awesome deep-dive into some interesting stats - great read & great post, looking forward to the Meyers one and Ed Davis.......

 

So actually Mason Plumlee is Joel Freeland...liked the article and welcome to the forum!

 

I totally agree with this entire post. I just wanted to point out that these stats right now paint Aldridge as the 2nd best PnR defender for roll men in the league, and that is a bit misleading.

I've always thought that LMA was our best/most underrated defender during the last two years of his tenure here.....but there was always a very vocal group that claimed he "sucked" on defense.

 

Ed's will be pretty easy- at this point he is what he is. The things he's good at- he does on a nightly basis, you know what you're getting out him- and of those things they're easily quantifiable. In my personal view, Ed is the perfect back up traditional 4. Night in night in- he checks in and gets it done. That kind of consistency is quite rare and really under appreciated.

Now Meyers on the other hand- full disclosure here: I have an irrational want for him to succeed. One, because the guy is easy to root for- but 2 on a selfish "numbers" level, the guy is a unicorn. Because of that, he's fun to study- but very hard to predict. I've been wanting to go a bit further on him for a while but I've wanted there to be enough evidence to support any claims, so I'm holding off until All Star weekend before getting there. But, that is one that is high up on my list.