ESPN insider article. Here’s the meat: The expectations of peaking too soon It is easy to throw around the words "blow up" in Portland. After reaching the Western Conference semifinals in 2016, Portland has been bounced out of the first round in two consecutive seasons, including an inept performance this year against New Orleans. And this is a team with a payroll that ranks in the top 10 and one which will likely return many of the same faces. Many consider Portland to be a good team, but one that is stuck on the treadmill of having a limited upside. While the norm in the NBA today is to celebrate teams that hit the rebuild button and bottom out to focus on the lottery, teams like Portland are often criticized when winning 49 is just not good enough. Here's why the perception in Portland should be different. For starters, the roster that was constructed after 80 percent of the team was traded or left (like All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge) in 2015 after peaking too soon. A team many thought would finish in the lottery won 44 games in 2015-16, defeating an injury-depleted LA Clippers team in the first round to advance to the semifinals. The bar after that season was set too high, similar to what the Indiana Pacers will face next season. Fast forward to this season, and the projected win total before the season started indicated a lottery finish. Instead, the second-youngest team in the NBA would win 49 games and finish third in the West. Yes, a team that was swept in the first round overachieved. Take a deep breath with the roster Even with the roster overachieving this season, there are still questions heading into the offseason, especially with All-Star Damian Lillard (who will turn 28 in July) in the prime of his career. After all, it is tough to stand pat after being swept in the first round for two consecutive postseasons. However, as I learned with Brooklyn, you shouldn't overreact about your roster after losing in the first round. When you do, it could set you back for years and turn a patient approach into a win-now mentality. Sure, Portland could use CJ McCollum and the remaining $82 million left on his contract to shake up the roster. Moving the borderline All-Star could get you a player like Harrison Barnes or Hassan Whiteside. But filling a need at small forward or center would only leave you exposed at shooting guard. McCollum and his backcourt partner Lillard should not be trade casualties because of the shortcomings in the playoffs this season. How the Trail Blazers are going to improve is through the development of 2017 first-round pick Zach Collins, buying into the second round, and relying on their personnel department to find the next Shabazz Napier or, in the case of the Utah Jazz, Royce O'Neale. Napier is an example of a player that teams had given up on, and O'Neale was an undrafted player that bounced around Europe for two seasons. That doesn't sound appealing, but it is less reckless than attaching multiple first-round picks to the contracts of Evan Turnerand Meyers Leonard to try to hit a home run in a trade. Case in point: targeting Marc Gasol of the Memphis Grizzlies. Remember that the 49 wins this season could turn into 35 and see a playoff team from the past three seasons turn into a perennial participant in the lottery. Take advantage of their trade exceptions It is no secret that Portland took a conservative approach last season when it came to the finances of its roster. Faced with a looming luxury tax bill, Portland traded the Allen Crabbe contract to Brooklyn, did not use its $5.2 million tax exception and took a back seat at the trade deadline, content with its current roster. All three transactions saw the Trail Blazers stay under the luxury tax. Now entering this offseason, the first-round playoff loss will serve as a reality check, and staying conservative like last season will likely not be repeated again this summer. Despite roster restrictions with $112 million in guaranteed salary and the pending restricted free agency of Jusuf Nurkic, Portland has trade exceptions of $13 million and $3.5 million that can be used to acquire players. Although the exceptions cannot be combined, the two assets essentially serve as cap space to either claim a player off waivers or use in a trade. Both exceptions do come with a cost if Portland does become a luxury tax team (a likely occurrence if Nurkic is signed). There is also a timing issue since the $13 million exception expires on July 25. The restricted free agents The Trail Blazers are in a familiar position compared to 2016: forced to decide on retaining their own restricted free agents. However, while Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard and Mo Harkless had the benefit of the spike in the cap as a result of the new TV agreement, this year's group will put the Trail Blazers in the luxury tax. There is no bigger decision than what Portland elects to do with Nurkic. Portland can lose Nurkic for nothing or retain him at a substantial cost. Combined with a lukewarm free-agent market and restricted free agency, Nurkic should have a hard time registering interest from teams willing to pay $14-16 million for a center, even though he posted close to a double-double average since being acquired last February while still only 23. However, unless there is confidence that rookie Zach Collins is the center in waiting, signing Nurkic should be a priority. But at what cost? At the minimum, Nurkic can look down the bench at what his teammate Meyers Leonard received in 2016: four years, $40 million as a starting point. Or Nurkick can look at the player he was traded for, Mason Plumlee, for a baseline: three years, $41 million last July in Denver. Even if Nurkic accepted a below-average contract (an unlikely scenario), the salary in itself would push the Blazers into the tax unless they can shed contracts during the season like this past year. The Plumlee-type contract would cost Portland at the minimum $12 million in tax penalties. As restricted free agency has taught us, expect a drawn-out process unless Nurkic is willing to sign his $4.8 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2019. When it comes to Napier and Pat Connaughton, Portland needs to decide between priority or luxury. Can the Blazers find their replacements in the draft or the minimum market? Or, in the case of Napier, is Wade Baldwin ready to compete for backup minutes?
Good thing there’s a workaround Not a fan of Marks’ takes on players, but I do appreciate his understanding of the financial part of the league. He’s been consistent on what he expects Nurkic to get.
What a bullshit article... I wonder how much Neil paid him to write it. Another example of used car salesman Neil trying to sweep everything under the rug and make excuses. I have a feeling this will be a very disappointing off season with roster staying pretty much same plus an old journeyman like Courtney Lee
You do realize that you sound like the guy who calls bullshit every time someone disagrees with your opinion, right.
The only thing I call bullshit on is that Neil thinks no one should be held accountable for that epic failure in the playoffs and bringing back the same team and coach... I will respond to anything related to that
Because no one else is doing the job. The article simply repeats the Olshey mantra, of what a pitiful corner he's stuck in, without explaining that he painted himself into it.
Yeah, because we already know he painted himself into it. It's like theres a group of people that watched Neil paint an ugly shade of blue, and Neil wants to fix it and paint it white. So everyone is talking about how Neil can paint it white, while there's two people sitting there saying "Remember everyone, Neil painted it blue!" a million times in a row.
I didn’t want to start a new thread so I’ll put it here. I think the plan is to go all in with this core until the summer of 2020 when guys like Turner, Leonard, and Harkless expire. By “all in” I mean we will dive deep into the tax. We will use the MLE. We will use the TPEs. Any vet we acquire will not have a contract that extends beyond the 19/20 season. I believe we will also avoid the repeater tax by using this strategy. With the plan narrowed down, it becomes easier to guess who some of the trade targets could be. Here are some vets who qualify: 1. Courtney Lee. Contract expires after the ‘19/20 season. Fits Crabbe TPE, but could also be a deal involving someone like Leonard + our pick. 2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Contract expires after the ‘19/20 season, unless he declines his player option. Fits Crabbe TPE 3. Jonathan Simmons. Contract expires after the ‘19/20 season. Also only has $1m guaranteed for 19/20 season. Fits Crabbe TPE. 4. Harrison Barnes. Contract expires after ‘19/20 season, unless he declines player option. Doesn’t fit TPE. 5. Danilo Gallinari. Contract expires after the ‘19/20 season. Doesn’t fit TPE. 6. Bogdan Bogdanovic. Contract expires (RFA) after the ‘19/20 season. Fits Crabbe TPE. 7. Buddy Hield. Contract expires (RFA) after the ‘19/20 season. Also has a club option for that season. Fits Crabbe TPE (may fit the Vonleh TPE, not sure, think he just misses it)
