Bring Back BNM's Rookie EFF Rankings?

Hey Gang,

Some of you that have been around a while, may recall the Weekly Rookie EFF rankings I used to post on BBF back in 2006-0y. Of course, we had two outstanding rookies that year (Roy and Aldridge, of course). So, it was fun to track their progress against the rest of their rookie class.

Well, this year, we once again have two lottery picks - one guard who is likely to be a starter and key contributor, and the other a big man who will likely come of the bench initially and may crack the starting line-up by the end of the season. We also have 3 other rookies that will likely be part of our regular rotation.

This should be a much stronger rookie class than the class of 2006-07, with several rookies likely to start and make significant contributions. So, I think it would be fun to track how our rookies stack up compared to the rest of their fellow first-yearers.

For those who weren't around on the old BBF forum, I'll post a sample of one of my weekly Rookie EFF Rankings posts so you know what I'm talking about.

Since tracking and updating this stuff is very time consuming, I'll only put in the effort if there is significant interest. I'm not usually into the whole reputation thing, but in this case, to see how many people are interested, I'm going to be a total rep whore:

If you'd like me to post weekly Rookie EFF Rankings, please rep this post. If at least 20 people rep me, I'll put in the effort to track the stats and post weekly updates. Because, frankly if fewer than 20 people are interested, I'd rather spend my time elsewhere.

BNM

 

An example of one of my previous weekly Rookie EFF Rankings updates:

Here's the up to date rookie efficiency ratings for all games played through 3/25/07.

The big news this time is the BIG week for the two Trailblazer rookies LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy. These two continue their stellar March play, and after a couple bad games by Rudy Gay, are the only two left in the running for March Western Conference Rookie of the Month. The question is, which one will get it. Roy has won it the last two months, with an EFF of 17.06 in January and a 15.73 in February. He is actually playing even better this month with an EFF = 19.00 for the month of March – so far. Roy has been incredibly consistent and productive all month. He hasn’t had a single single-digit EFF game all month and has scored at least 14 points in every game in the month of March.

His rookie teammate LaMarcus Aldridge joined him in the starting line-up back on March 1. Initially, Aldridge was starting at center in place of the injured Joel Przyvbilla, but slid over to the starting power forward spot and didn’t miss a beat when Zach Randolph left the team for bereavement leave. Highlighting his versatility, Aldridge has fared equally well at both positions. He hasn’t been as consistent as Brandon Roy, but Aldridge has put up some monster games this month. Aldridge started the week with an huge EFF = 32 game on Tuesday and then topped that with an EFF = 34 game on Friday. Those two games give Aldridge a total of 4 EFF ≥ 30 games during the month of March. No other rookie has more than one EFF ≥ 30 game for the entire season. It’s been a wildly productive month for LaMarcus Aldridge, and a lack of consistency, including a couple single-digit EFF games, is the only thing keeping Aldridge from running away from teammate Roy for March Western Conference ROM honors.

Aldridge and Roy still have three games left in March, but here’s their numbers for the month so far:

Code:

Brandon Roy:       [B]18.42 PPG[/B], 5.58 RPG, [B]4.83 APG[/B], [B]1.25 SPG[/B], 0.17 BPG, 45.5 FG%, EFF = 19.00
LaMarcus Aldridge: 16.08 PPG, [B]8.50 RPG[/B], 0.58 APG, 0.92 SPG, [B]1.83 BPG[/B], [B]52.5 FG%[/B], [B]EFF = 20.08[/B]

With three games to go, I’d say this one is still too close to call. It will be interesting to see if the voters favor the steady, consistent all-around excellence of Brandon Roy, or if their heads are turned by those HUGE games Aldridge has been putting up once or twice a week.

And, no I did not forget about the rest of the top rookies. Several of them had very productive weeks, but their performances were clearly over-shadowed by the week Roy and Aldridge had. The other top news of the week is that Toronto rookie, and No. 1 overall pick, Andrea Bargnani is out indefinitely after an emergency appendectomy. Bummer, I was looking forward to a strong finish by Bargnani. The good news is once the incision heals, there should be no long term ill effects from Bargnani’s surgery. Still no word on when he’ll be back. Hopefully, in time for the play-offs. Here's the latest rookie efficiency ratings for each of the top eight rookies listed by season total, change since last week, current month (March) and most recent week (ending 3/25/07).

Code:

[B]Rank  Player            Season Change Month  Week[/B]
 1    Brandon Roy       16.04  +0.41  19.00  20.75
 2    Jorge Garbajosa   10.86  +0.16   8.82  16.00
 3    LaMarcus Aldridge 10.85  +0.89  20.08  23.25
 4    Paul Millsap      10.12  +0.33   9.75  17.33
 5    Rudy Gay           9.97  -0.22  12.73   5.00
 6    Andrea Bargnani    9.92  +0.00  12.00    NA
 7    Randy Foye         8.83  +0.15   9.25  11.25
 8    Craig Smith        8.75  +0.24  10.50  12.75

Trends: As mentioned, a huge week for Roy and Aldridge. Roy now has both his scoring average (16.3) and EFF (16.04) up over 16 for the first time. Roy continues to distance himself from everyone else besides Aldridge. At this point, barring some major catastrophe, the ROY is his – by a large margin.

So, everybody else is battling for the 2 – 5 spots and a chance to be 1st team all-rookie. This is way too tight to call at this point. It took a career high of 22 points by Jorge Garbajosa to hold off LaMarcus Aldridge by a scant 0.01 for the second spot in this week’s rookie EFF rankings. After a down couple weeks, Paul Millsap is back to his old productive self, got his EFF back above 10.00 and wrestled the 4th spot back from Rudy Gay. After scoring in double-digits in the first nine games of the month, Rudy Gay scored in single-figures on both Thursday and Saturday. This included a stinker of an EFF = -1 game on Saturday that cost Gay dearly. It bumped him out of running for Western Conference ROM, dropped him into 5th place behind Millsap and barely ahead of the idle Bargnani.

Right now, with three weeks left, positions 2 – 6 are really too close to call. Some people may want to include Randy Foye in the running for 1st team all-rookie. For me, that depends on which Randy Foye we’re talking about. The one who put up EFF = 28 and EFF = 18 games on Wednesday and Sunday, or the Randy Foye that put up EFF = -3 and EFF = 2 on Tuesday and Friday. I know rookies are supposed to be inconsistent, but Foye takes inconsistency to an extreme. When he’s good, he’s very good. When he’s bad, he stinks. Just to give you an idea of how Foye’s performance wanders all over the map, here are the EFF numbers for the 12 games he’s played in March:

6, -2, 11, 11, 3, 13, 24, 0, -3, 28, 2, 18

That’s about as inconsistent as you can get. Six double-digit EFF games, including two in the 20s, combined with six single-digit EFF games, including one EFF = 0 game and two negative EFF games.

Just for grins, compare that with the steady consistency of Brandon Roy:

26, 17, 23, 18, 23, 11, 12, 15, 20, 19, 22, 22

For the month, not one single-digit EFF game. And while Foye’s performance has been up and down like a yo-yo over the last week, Roy’s EFF has been rock steady between EFF = 19 and EFF = 22 for the past week. The potential is there, but due to the wild inconsistency, if I was voting today, Randy Foye wouldn’t make my all-rookie team. Still there are three weeks left to play and as Foye has shown, there’s no telling what he might do.

By contrast, Foye’s less heralded teammate Craig Smith continues to be the Rock of Gibraltar. Smith had a very solid week and is having a productive, if unspectacular March. He easily holds on to the 8th and final spot in the rookie EFF rankings.

As for the rest, they’re not really worth getting too excited about at this point. If Rajon Rondo ever hits two shots in a row, his EFF should FINALLY creep up over 8.00 and he’ll make my list. He came oh so devilishly close to making it again this week, ending the week at EFF = 7.97. This is the second time Rondo has ended a week within a few hundredths of 8.00. Last time I was lenient and put him on the list. He promptly tanked and ended up with a rule named after him. Fool me once… Sorry, not this time. You want to make the list, get your EFF above 8.00.

Adam Morrison continues to shoot like he’s unconscious – literally. As a result, his EFF continues to sink like the Titanic. Last week, after shooting 28.6% from the field, his EFF dropped below 8.00 and he became a casualty of the Rajon Rondo Rule. Well, the good news for fans of the ‘Stache is he shot the ball better this week (31.7%), but his EFF continues to plummet and is now below 7.50 for the season.

So, with Bargnani out for the last week and a half of the month, just who wants March Eastern Conference ROM. Frankly, nobody else is deserving. Garbajosa has had 3 really good games – and 8 really bad ones. At least Rondo has had 6 good games to go with his 6 bad ones. If they decide not to give it to Bargnani, Rondo is one of the more “deserving” candidates, but does a guy who’s averaging 6.25 PPG while shooting 36.0% from the field and 57.5% from the line REALLY deserve ROM honors?

And then there is Renaldo Balkman who’s had one really huge game and three decent games. It’s pretty sad when that makes you a contender for Eastern Conference ROM, but that’s the reality of the situation. What about Tyrus Thomas? Interesting… He had that one huge game and he’s been scoring a bit and rebounding a bit more. If only we all agree to pretend he doesn’t have almost as many TOs (27) as made field goals (31) for the month, and is only shooting 61% from the line, he’d have a good shot at winning the award.

However, there is one guy who may just swoop in out of nowhere and snatch the award from them all - Walter Hermann. Yes, you read that right. With injuries to Emeka Okafor and Sean May, Hermann is getting some significant PT. After not really accomplishing anything of note over the first 6 games of the month (including a pair of DNPs), Hermann has had a very solid seven game stretch – averaging 15.3 PPG. Which may be enough to make him the odds-on favorite for Eastern Conference ROM. He’s scored in double-figures 7 times this month, and even has a double-double. One of his most impressive stats of the month is his 57% FG%. If Hermann can score in double-digits one more time in his last two games of the month, he may indeed come out of nowhere to win this award.

Poor Adam Morrison. First he can’t hit a basket in a Pier1 store, and now he’s not even the best rookie on his team. Adding insult to injury, the Fabio clone Hermann also has better hair and the ability to grow a decent mustache in about 3 days. Note: emphasis added for the Draft the 'Stache contingent of this forum.

Summary: Brandon Roy continues to lead the pack by a huge margin in scoring and EFF and should win the ROY award in a landslide. His only legitimate challenger for Western Conference ROM is his teammate LaMarcus Aldridge, who continues to rack up huge games at an impressive rate. After scoring in double-digits the first 9 games of the month, Rudy Gay fell flat by scoring in single-digits in the last 2. That pretty much eliminates him from serious Western Conference ROM consideration.

In the East, Andrea Bargnani is out indefinitely after an emergency appendectomy. Thus leaving the Eastern Conference ROM up for grabs. Nobody is really deserving, but I suppose they have to give it to somebody. That somebody might end up being Charlotte he-man Walter Hermann.

With three weeks left in the season, the ROY is pretty much decided. The only real question now is which four other rookies will join Brandon Roy on the all-rookie team. If I was voting today, it would be Aldridge, Bargnani, Millsap and either Garbajosa or Gay. This last spot is up for gabs, and too close to call at this point.

BNM

 

Sounds cool, a lot of work for you to do but its something i'd like to see. Repped.

 

So, what is EFF, how is it calculated and why use it instead of PER to track rookie performance?

These questions were asked multiple times the last time I posted weekly Rookie EFF results in the 2006-07 season. Rather than answer them again every time I post a weekly update, I'll share the answers here in this thread.

What is EFF?

EFF is an official NBA stat that is tracked on nba.com. It is listed at the top of every player's bio page and is one of the sortable stats on nba.com. It is a very simple :good minus bad" stat that tracks a player's total net contributions. If you can add and subtract, you can calculate EFF for a game, week, month or season. All you need is a box score, or listing of basic stats on a weekly, monthly or seasonal basis.

How is EFF Calculated?

The formula for EFF is:

Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks - Turnovers - Missed Free Throws - Missed Field Goals

So, from last night's box score, Damian Lillard had an EFF of:

15 + 2 + 7 + 0 + 0 - 1 - 7 = 16.0

And Meyers Leonard had an EFF of:

4 + 6 + 1 + 0 + 1 - 4 - 0 - 1 = 7.0

Golden State lottery pick Harrison Barnes had an EFF of:

6 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 - 1 - 0 - 3 = 4.0

For the Preseason:

Damian Lillard (4 Games):

EFF (per game) = (64 + 10 + 22 + 1 + 0 - 12 - 0 - 27)/4 = 58/4 = 14.5

Meyers Leonard (5 Games):

EFF (per game) = (37 + 25 + 1 + 3 + 5 - 10 - 2 - 4)/5 = 55/5 = 11.0

Yes, it's just preseason, but for comparison:

Brandon Roy Rookie EFF = 16.5 (1st among all 2006-07 rookies)
LaMarcus Aldridge Rookie EFF = 10.8 (2nd among all 2006 - 07 rookies)

And, here's the current Top 10 rookies in preseason EFF:

1 Anthony Davis EFF = 16.5
2 Damian Lillard EFF = 14.5
3 Andre Drummond EFF = 14.4
4 Perry Jones EFF = 14.3
5 Jared Sullinger EFF = 14.2
6 Bradley Beal EFF = 14.0
7 Maalik Wayns = 12.6
8 Brian Roberts = 12.2
9 Terrence Jones = 11.0
9 Meyers Leonard = 11.0

So, our two lottery picks are currently 2nd and tied for 9th in Rookie EFF.

Why use EFF instead of PER to track rookie performance?

The simple answer is because it's a lot easier. The calculation is a lot more simple. There is no advanced or proprietary formula involved. It can be calculated on a game-by-game basis from the box score, without even using a calculator, let alone a computer.

EFF makes no attempt to normalize based on minutes played or pace. To me, this actually makes it a better measure of rookie contributions than PER. It is a measurement of total production that favors the rookies that are playing significant minutes for their teams, that are contributing against other starters, when it counts. With PER, there will always be some guys who rank very high in limited garbage time minutes. You have to ask, who is making the greater contribution, the rookie who starts and plays 30 MPG, against the other teams best players, or the guy who pads his stats in 3 or 4 minutes of meaningless garbage time every 3rd or 4th game? The former will have a higher EFF, but the later will have a higher PER.

Plus, I know of no source for individual game, weekly or monthly PERs. EFF is easily calculated for all these splits. It is also possible to sort all these splits on the nba.com web site for all rookies. I also use this data to identify trends - which rookies are improving and which have hit the rookie wall and seen their performance tank.

Ultimately, it is the rookies who play the most minutes and make the most significant contributions that will be considered for ROY and 1st and 2nd team All-Rookie. And, that is really my motivation. There is a very high correlation between rookie EFF and ROY and All-Rookie Team voting (with a slight bias to players with a higher scoring average). So, tracking Rookie EFF is my way of projecting will is most deserving of these honors.

BNM

 

Thanks to all who have repped me so far. Keep 'em coming.

I enjoy doing this, especially when we have rookies that will be in the mix for ROY and the All-Rookie teams, but it is a lot of work. If there is sufficient interest, I'll put forth the effort. If not, I'll just track it on my own using the sortable stats at nba.com. The value added is: I massage the data to identify trends, and also provide my own running commentary (and hope others will participate) on how the various rookies are performing relative to their rookie classmates. This is also where the work comes in.

Given the fact that we have 5 rookies on our roster, most that will be part of our regular rotation, and are likely to miss the playoffs, this will give us something positive to focus on and hopefully stimulate discussion during this "down" year.

BNM

 

Man, 5 rookies. At one point in the game last night, Terry went with the all-rookie line-up of Lil/Barton/Claver/Freeland/Meyers. Was kind of a mess.

 

eff ing a

 

I am a big fan from years gone by.

I still remember how you tracked LaMarcus progression his rookie season as he got better, and how he was superior to other rookies that got lots more pub.

Looking forward to it with all the rookies we have this year.

Rep.

 

Halfway there! Keep that rep coming!

BNM

 

Count me as a rep, I just need to spread some around first. But I am very interested to see the rankings again.


EDIT: I just randomly repped a half dozen posters so I could get my rep on. BNM, you have been repped!





Oh, and 20 reps seem like a high hurdle in preseason. If you don't make your arbitrary mark, I hope you still rank the rooks.

 

Up to 15 (thanks to every one of you) only 5 more to go. With only 174 thread views, we should be able to get to 20 once more people see this thread.

BNM

 

That's more important than the reps. Just do it if you want to. I don't think it's worth the dozens of hours it will take. Most people will just skim the long entry into which you put 2 laborious hours.

My philosophy on repping is so simple. I don't rep, but you may rep me. I allow others more freedom than I allow myself. I'm unselfish.

 

OK, still need 4 more reps.

BTW, I'm not doing this for the rep, because I don't really care. But, I figure if someone takes the time to rep this thread, they are genuinely interested in reading the Rookie EFF updates. And, if enough people are genuinely interested, I'll put in the time and effort to post them.

BNM

 

what an unapologetic rep whore

 

That's me!!!

BNM

 

that reminds of that time i got repped in the truck stop bathroom by this guy named sea bass