Bubble Thread

Who are the teams you think will make the tournament? Assuming that only locks win their conference tournament, here are your are the locks.

<u>Locks</u>

ACC: North Carolina, Maryland, Duke, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Big East: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova
Big Ten: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana
Big 12: Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Southern Cal
SEC: Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
MVC: Creighton, Southern Illinois
Mid-Majors: Butler, Nevada, Memphis, BYU, Air Force, UNLV

Total: 36 Locks
+ 31 Auto Bids
- 11 Auto-Bid winners who are also locks
__________________________________
56 slots more or less filled in the tournament

All of that rambling nonsense basically means that there are essentially only nine spots open for bubble teams this season.

Of the following bubble teams, which ones do you think will make it?

<font size=""1"">Xavier
23-7 (13-3)
RPI: 32
Key Wins: @ Virginia Commonwealth, Villanova, Illinois, UMass
Bad Losses: @ Cincinnati, Bucknell, @ Saint Louis, @ Duquesne
Last 10 games: 9-1

Georgia Tech
20-10 (8-8)
RPI: 34
Key Wins: Purdue, @ Memphis, Duke, North Carolina, Boston College
Bad Losses: @ Miami, @ Wake Forest
Last 10 games: 7-3

Illinois
21-10 (9-7)
RPI: 35
Key Wins: @ Bradley, Michigan State
Bad Losses: N/A
Last 10 games: 7-3

Clemson
21-9 (7-9)
RPI: 36
Key Wins: @ Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Boston College, @ Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: @ Wake Forest
Last 10 games: 3-7

Missouri State
22-10 (12-6)
RPI: 38
Key Wins: Wisconsin, @ Bradley
Bad Losses: Northern Iowa, @ Evansville
Last 10 games: 7-3

Old Dominion
24-8 (15-3)
RPI: 39
Key Wins: @ Georgetown, Virginia Commonwealth
Bad Losses: @ James Madison, @ George Mason
Last 10 games: 9-1

Drexel
23-8 (13-5)
RPI: 40
Key Wins: @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Creighton
Bad Losses: @ Penn, @ Rider, @ William & Mary
Last 10 games: 7-3

Texas Tech
20-11 (9-7)
RPI: 42
Key Wins: Kansas, Texas A&M, @ Texas A&M
Bad Losses: @ Baylor, @ Missouri, @ Oklahoma, Nebraska
Last 10 games: 5-5

Alabama
20-10 (7-9)
RPI: 45
Key Wins: Xavier, Kentucky
Bad Losses: @ Auburn, Auburn, Mississippi State
Last 10 games: 5-5

Purdue
20-10 (9-7)
RPI: 46
Key Wins: Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana
Bad Losses: @ Indiana State, @ Minnesota
Last 10 games: 7-3

Florida State
19-11 (7-9)
RPI: 47
Key Wins: Florida, Virginia Tech, Maryland, @ Duke
Bad Losses: N/A
Last 10 games: 5-5

Arkansas
18-12 (7-9)
RPI: 48
Key Wins: @ Southern Illinois, West Virginia, @ Vanderbilt
Bad Losses: @ Missouri, @ South Carolina, @ LSU, @ Mississippi State, @ Auburn
Last 10 games: 5-5

Syracuse
21-9 (10-6)
RPI: 49
Key Wins: @ Marquette, Villanova, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Wichita State, @ St. John's
Last 10 games: 6-4

Oklahoma State
20-10 (6-9)
RPI: 52
Key Wins: @ Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Texas
Bad Losses: @ Colorado, @ Oklahoma, Missouri, @ Baylor
Last 10 games: 3-7

Michigan
20-11 (8-8)
RPI: 53
Key Wins: Davidson, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Bad Losses: @ N.C. State, @ UCLA (by 37)
Last 10 games: 4-6

San Diego State
21-9 (10-6)
RPI: 55
Key Wins: Air Force, UNLV, BYU
Bad Losses: @ Western Michigan, Wyoming, @ Wyoming, @ Utah
Last 10 games: 8-2

Stanford
18-11 (10-8)
RPI: 57
Key Wins: @ Virginia, Washington State, Southern Cal, UCLA, Oregon
Bad Losses: California
Last 10 games: 4-6

West Virginia
21-8 (9-7)
RPI: 58
Key Wins: Villanova, UCLA
Bad Losses: @ Cincinnati
Last 10 games: 6-4

Kansas State
20-10 (10-6)
RPI: 60
Key Wins: @ Southern Cal, @ Texas
Bad Losses: @ California, @ Colorado State, @ Nebraska
Last 10 games: 6-4

<strike>Gonzaga
22-10 (12-3)
RPI: 67
Key Wins: @ North Carolina, @ Texas
Bad Losses: @ Georgia, @ Loyola Marymount
Last 10 games: 7-3</font></strike>

<u>In or Out?</u>

Xavier - In
Georgia Tech - In
Illinois - In
Clemson - Out
Missouri State - In
Old Dominion - In
Drexel - Out
Texas Tech - Out
Alabama - Out
Purdue - In
Florida State - In
Arkansas - Out
Syracuse - In
Oklahoma State - Out
Michigan - Out
San Diego State - Out
Stanford - In
West Virginia - Out
Kansas State - Out
<strike>Gonzaga - Out</strike>

 

Xavier - In
Georgia Tech - In
Illinois - In
Clemson - Out
Missouri State - In
Old Dominion - In
Drexel - In
Texas Tech - Out: I think Texas Tech will make a run in the Big 12 tourney, but right now, I would have them out.
Alabama - Out
Purdue - In
Florida State - Out
Arkansas - Out
Syracuse - In
Oklahoma State - Out
Michigan - Out
San Diego State - Out
Stanford - Out
West Virginia - Out
Kansas State - Out
Gonzaga - In (I think they get the job done tonight against Santa Clara in the WCC championship)

 

<div class="quote_poster">UKFan33 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">
Gonzaga - In (I think they get the job done tonight against Santa Clara in the WCC championship)</div>

I can't say that I disagree with you on that one, but if they do win it, and they make the tourny as an auto-bid, that opens another at-large bid for one of those bubble teams.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Voodoo Child Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I can't say that I disagree with you on that one, but if they do win it, and they make the tourny as an auto-bid, that opens another at-large bid for one of those bubble teams. </div>
Yeah, I think Florida State would be that odd team out. I like their wins against Duke, Virginia Tech and Maryland, but they have too many bad losses to deserve a spot in the big dance. They desperately need to win their first round game against Clemson. I think the winner of that game ultimately gets a bid...

 

Great first post.

I want to first go through and see if I can punch a hole in any of those "locks" but they look pretty safe to me. Still, even though they're probably all in, I guess I can point out some weaknesses. Virginia: RPI only 43, road record 3-8. Michigan State, 4-6 in last 10 and 3-9 on the road. Southern Cal, RPI is pretty bad 54, no marquee wins. Kentucky, 4-9 vs. the top 50. 5-5 in their last 10. Air Force, they're really tanking lately, only finished 10-6 in their conference, 3-5 on the road in conference games.

That said, those teams probably don't have much to worry about. So...

<u>In or Out?</u>

If there are a few upsets in small conferences, I won't mind that much because a lot of these teams I wouldn't feel too bad if they didn't make it. I think I'll try to put them in order so as the number of open slots decreases I don't have to figure this out again to decide who gets bumped out, but this order isn't really perfect. A few things I like to look at are RPI, conference record, road record, key wins...

1. Xavier - In.
32 RPI, 23-7 (13-3).
They have a list of nice wins, they have a good RPI, good conference showing. They seem like a lock.

2. Texas Tech - In.
40 RPI. 20-11 (9-7).
RPI is pretty respectable, but also two wins over Texas A&M are icing, in my opinion.

3. Missouri State - In.
38 RPI. 21-10 (12-6).
The committee can't keep them out again this year, not with a win over mighty Wisconsin, can they?

4. Old Dominion - In.
39 RPI. 24-8 (15-3).
They beat Georgetown. A lot like Missouri St.'s profile: a marquee win, a good RPI, and a good record in a powerful midmajor.

5. Syracuse - In.
50 RPI. 21-9 (10-6).
Lost to bubble teams Drexel, Oklahoma State. Not a good RPI. But they finished 10-6 and they beat Georgetown, I guess they're probably in.

6. Georgia Tech - In.
34 RPI, 20-10 (8-8).
Only 8-8 in their conference, 1-7 in away games. That is pretty staggering, they are heating up now but through home game wins. Still, with their RPI and wins over UNC and Memphis they will be in.

7. Drexel - In.
46 RPI. 22-8 (13-5).
Road warriors, 14-5. Respectable 46 RPI. Win other fellow bubble team Syracuse, away, and over tourney lock Villanova, away, and over tourney lock Creighton, away.

8. Purdue - In.
45 RPI. 20-10 (9-7).
Pretty middling profile. Mediocre record vs. top 50 and on the road. Beat Illinois.

9. Illinois - In.
35 RPI, 21-10 (9-7).
Basically no really good wins, and they're 3-8 vs. the top 50 RPI teams. Most of the time, they just beat the teams they're supposed to.
10. West Virginia - Out.
58 RPI. 20-8 (9-7).
Yucky RPI. But, like Stanford, they also beat UCLA. So did Washington. I don't think there's enough else in this profile.

11. DePaul - Out.
61 RPI. 17-12 (9-7).
Felt compelled to add these guys. They beat Kansas, went 9-7 in the Big East. Too many losses, probably.

12. Stanford - Out.
57 RPI. 18-11 (10-8).
4-6 in last 10. Lost to Air Force and Santa Clara at home early. They did beat UCLA.

13. Kansas State - Out.
59 RPI. 21-10 (10-6).
A good win at Texas, but just not enough. Although they are 10-6 in conference.

14. Clemson - Out.
36 RPI. 21-9 (7-9).
3-7 in last 10, 7-9 in the ACC. Meltdown of a season. Their RPI still holds up and they have some decent wins, however.

15. Gonzaga - Out.
67 RPI. 22-10 (11-3).
They do have some good wins, good record, all that. They're not far outside but that RPI puts them in the boat with a lot of "normal" midmajors.

16. Appalachian State - Out.
62 RPI. 22-7 (15-3).
Added these guys too. Lost in OT in their tourney. Won vs. Virginia and Vanderbilt and VCU, none of those were at home.

17. Michigan - Out.
53 RPI. 20-11 (8-8).
They blew it when they choked against Ohio State. Their record and RPI and wins aren't enough to get in as is.

18. San Diego State - Out.
55 RPI. 19-9 (10-6).
3-5 vs. top 50. Swept by Utah. I don't know why they'd let this team in, but they sure surprised me last year with Air Force I believe it was.

19. Florida State - Out.
47 RPI. 19-11 (7-9).
4-11 vs. top 50. Losing record in conference. They have a few nice wins but forget it.

20. Oklahoma State - Out.
52 RPI. 19-10 (6-9).
Losing record in the Big 12, and they've completely fallen apart, so even early season wins lose luster.

21. Alabama - Out.
42 RPI. 20-10 (7-9).
Losing record in the not-so-special SEC, I can't justify it.

22. Arkansas - Out.
48 RPI. 18-12 (7-9).
Another losing record in the SEC.

 

Fixed mine up. I have Stanford out and Drexel in (yes, i think the CAA gets three in).

The committee usually looks at a teams last 10 games and Stanford has went 4-6 compared to Drexel's 7-3 record. Plus, Drexel has one of the most intruiging resumes among all of the mid-major teams (wins @ Creighton, Syracuse and Villanova).

 

I think the CAA should get 3 teams - ODU and VCU have been the most impressive teams during conference play, but Drexel has a couple of very good wins on the road against major-conference at-large teams. I'd give Drexel/ODU a bid over Missouri State, even though I like Mizzou St more than those CAA teams. The Bears faded down the stretch, even after they spoke of playing with a chip on their shoulders for being snubbed last year. I don't think they did quite enough.

 

With the Zags winning the WCC, they're no longer on the bubble. I think mid-majors will get more looks now that GMU made it to the Final Four. Mid-Major games use to mean nothing to a lot of people but they'll watch a lot more of those games after last year's tourney.


Xavier - OUT
Georgia Tech - IN
Illinois - OUT
Clemson - OUT
Missouri State -IN
Old Dominion - OUT
Drexel - IN
Texas Tech - IN
Alabama - OUT
Purdue - OUT
Florida State - OUT
Arkansas - OUT
Syracuse - IN
Oklahoma State - OUT
Michigan - OUT
San Diego State - IN
Stanford - IN
West Virginia -IN
Kansas State - IN

 

<div class="quote_poster">Fast Luck Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">
2. Texas Tech - In.
40 RPI. 20-11 (9-7).
RPI is pretty respectable, but also two wins over Texas A&M are icing, in my opinion.</div>

What will probably tip the scales in the favor of the Red Raiders (other than the fact that they're Bobby Knight's team) is playing in the Big 12. While only three teams should probably make it out of that conference, the selection committee's more than likely going to give them four bids, and Texas Tech is really the best of the remaining teams.

In a perfect world though, I'd like to see Texas Tech in the NIT. They may have come up with three huge wins, but then the rest of their resume is marked with inconsistencies and disappointments. Losses to teams like Baylor, Missouri, and Nebraska are unacceptable, and even though they played a decent nonconference schedule, they didn't win against any of the good teams they played.

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">7. Drexel - In.
46 RPI. 22-8 (13-5).
Road warriors, 14-5. Respectable 46 RPI. Win other fellow bubble team Syracuse, away, and over tourney lock Villanova, away, and over tourney lock Creighton, away.</div>

Beating Syracuse, Villanova, and Creighton is a great testimate to Drexel's strength, but should that put them in the tournament? They also lost to the likes of Penn, Rider, and William & Mary. I know the Colonial was stronger than usual this year, but really, Drexel beat up on the bottom feeders like James Madison and Deleware a lot and then lost both of the times they played VCU and ODU.

They're sitting on the fence in my mind now, but I kind of have a hunch that the committee will snub them in favor of a high-major conference. They're human, and they're biased, just like all of us, and in the past they've shown a tendancy to be biased against mid-majors unfortunately.

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">11. DePaul - Out.
61 RPI. 17-12 (9-7).
Felt compelled to add these guys. They beat Kansas, went 9-7 in the Big East. Too many losses, probably.</div>

I thought about adding them, but with twelve losses, you've got to have one hell of a strength of schedule to make the tournament, and the Blue Demons didn't have that. Their RPI won't help matters either. Not too many sub-60 teams make it. The win over Kansas looks nice, but Oral Roberts beat Kansas too, so it's not a sure-fire ticket to the post season.

It's a shame though, because this team had all the talent in the world this season. What wasted potential.

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">12. Stanford - Out.
57 RPI. 18-11 (10-8).
4-6 in last 10. Lost to Air Force and Santa Clara at home early. They did beat UCLA.</div>

They're as good as in as far as I'm concerned. Air Force and Santa Clara aren't exactly bad losses. You're talking about a tournament team and the WCC's #2 seed. Besides, they didn't have Brook Lopez in the game against Air Force, for what that matters.

Their resume is just too strong to ignore. It's not just UCLA they've beaten. They've got wins over Texas Tech, Fresno State, Virginia, Southern Cal, and Oregon.

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">19. Florida State - Out.
47 RPI. 19-11 (7-9).
4-11 vs. top 50. Losing record in conference. They have a few nice wins but forget it.</div>

I think you're being way too harsh on the Seminoles. Sure, they went on a five game skid in the ACC, but that all went down without Toney Douglas, their second leading scorer. He was back again Miami the other day and looked healthy, so that should factor into the committee's decision just like Brian Butch's injury will factor into their decision making process with Wisconsin.

Anyway, I agree with all of your other picks more or less.

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Xavier - OUT
Georgia Tech - IN
Illinois - OUT
Clemson - OUT
Missouri State -IN
Old Dominion - OUT
Drexel - IN
Texas Tech - IN
Alabama - OUT
Purdue - OUT
Florida State - OUT
Arkansas - OUT
Syracuse - IN
Oklahoma State - OUT
Michigan - OUT
San Diego State - IN
Stanford - IN
West Virginia -IN
Kansas State - IN</div>

Those are some weird picks, J_Ray.

 

My problem with letting in 7-9 from the ACC is that we'd also be leaving out 9-7 from the Big East and 10-6 from the Big 12, things like that (okay, the Big 12 is weak besides the top, but still). I mean, take DePaul. Beat a #1 seed and had a WINNING conference record. West Virginia. Beat a #1 seed and had a WINNING conference record. The ACC is a really strong conference, but if VT and UVA are getting wins, I think it can be done. UVA is actually helping out a few teams with their tournament resumes, I noticed (Purdue, Appalachian State, Stanford).

 

<div class="quote_poster">Fast Luck Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">My problem with letting in 7-9 from the ACC is that we'd also be leaving out 9-7 from the Big East and 10-6 from the Big 12, things like that (okay, the Big 12 is weak besides the top, but still). I mean, take DePaul. Beat a #1 seed and had a WINNING conference record. West Virginia. Beat a #1 seed and had a WINNING conference record. The ACC is a really strong conference, but if VT and UVA are getting wins, I think it can be done. UVA is actually helping out a few teams with their tournament resumes, I noticed (Purdue, Appalachian State, Stanford). </div>

That's a good point. I think the ACC is just that strong this year though. And the Big East is such a huge conference, that it's hard to take conference records seriously. For example, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame play in the same conference yet never even meet eachother once. I think a conference should be small and close knit. That's where conference records matter, when your opponents know everything about you and play you multiple times.

Has any team ever made it with a sub-.500 conference record though?

 

NC State made it a couple years ago with a 7-9 conference record, and their RPI was like 65 or something too. They probably didn't deserve it but they beat the Chris Paul-less Wake and suddenly they were in.

 

<div class="quote_poster">J_Ray Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> Xavier- OUTquote]

As Voodoo said, very interesting picks. I disagree with a few, especially the Xavier pick. They were the co-champ of the A-10 and have quality wins over the likes of VCU, Illinois, Villanova and Kansas State. And they have also won eight straight games, so I think you can pencil Xavier in as an at-large barring a total collapse in the A-10 tournament.

[quote name='J_Ray;783578']San Diego State - IN</div>

The only way San Diego State gets in is if they win their conference tournament...and I do not see that happening with the way UNLV is playing...

 

Wright State wins Horizon conference tournament, so Butler gets an at large and someone elses bubble is burst.

 

^ CAA/MVC won't be happy about this...I think Missouri State will end up out, as Joe Lunardi had them as the last team in, I believe.

Good for Wright St, though, and the Horizon league. No longer is it just UW-M, there's some depth to the conference. And Dashaun Wood is a good story. I like their freshman, Duggins. He's got an all-around game. They could be dangerous in the NCAAs.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Voodoo Child Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Those are some weird picks, J_Ray.</div>

No one said the committee was going to be normal, last year they put in Air Force and Utah St. despite their weak RPI and all the other mumbo jumbo they go off of.

<div class="quote_poster">UKFan33 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">[quote name='J_Ray;783578']


The only way San Diego State gets in is if they win their conference tournament...and I do not see that happening with the way UNLV is playing...</div>

San Diego St. has been on fire as of late just manhandling BYU, Air Force, and UNLV if I can remember right. It's the way you end the year, not how you begun it. I expect them to win their tourney witht he way Heath is playing.....

 

Haha I don't think even the committee had any idea why they let Air Force in

 

I think FSU gets in with two ACC tourney wins.

And good for Wright State. Bad for hopeful bubble team. Gotta love March Madness.

 

Air Force lost in the first game of the MWC tourney today. They've lost their last four in a row and could only manage 10-7 in the Mountain West. Their RPI is good but I really think they should be out now. Not saying they will be out, just that they should be.