I don't know of a site that does the PER stat for preseason so I used something called linear weights PER (lwtsPER) to get estimates: Noah 18.9 Mohammed 17.8 Boozer 17.7 Hinrich 16.6 Hamilton 16.4 Robinson 15.9 Deng 15.5 Butler 12.0 Gibson 10.9 Belinelli 5.3 Radmanovich -12.3 Teague -12.7 Beyond PER, both Robinson and Mohammed have been pleasant surprises for me. Robinson's shown himself to be more than just a JLIII-type chucker. Both his assists and number of trips to the line have been impressive. Despite limited minutes, Mohammed led the team in offensive rebounds...very surprising. The Bulls led the league in offensive rebounding as a team last season with Noah and Asik both being near the top as individuals. We can't expect Mohammed to be the dominant defensive presence Asik was, but it'd be great if he can help keep the Bulls at the top in offensive rebounding and second-chance points. Despite reports from many that Hinrich's game had seriously regressed since leaving Chicago, I didn't see it in the preseason games I watched. He looked like, well, Kirk Hinrich. He never was a great player and he certainly hasn't become one. He appears to be a good player and I've always liked him better at PG on offense than SG. Returnees Boozer, Hamilton, Deng and Noah all appear to be in good health and good shape. Gibson's shooting was godawful, but because I've seen so much of Taj over the past few seasons, I'm not worried. He'll be fine. Jimmy Butler's preseason play was a bit of a disappointment. Making fans forget Ronnie Brewer wouldn't seem like an overly daunting task, but Butler didn't do it for me. He needs to step it up. We can only hope that Belinelli's preseason was nothing more than a slump. 11% from the arc does not a Kyle Korver replacement make. Not much is expected from either Radmanovich nor Teague and from what we saw in preseason, that's a decidedly good thing. This said, I found it a little scary to see just how lost Teague looked out there...even against marginal NBA talent. Usually, I'm glad to see the preseason end so we can get to the "real" games. I don't know about you guys, but I feel a little different this year. The period where we're waiting for DRose to return has a not-quite-prime-time quality to it. I'm sure that the players don't feel this way and I wish I didn't, but I do.
Nice rundown. Robinson's only issue with me is height. He's tiny. Which starter can we least afford to lose for some stretch of games?
Good question. On the face of it, the Bulls deepest position is PF because Gibson's the only Bulls' sub who is a starting-caliber player, but I'll say Boozer. Though everyone seems to want to amnesty the guy, if Boozer went down for an extended period early this season, I think the Bulls would be in a world of hurt. Without Rose, Boozer is the Bulls most accomplished scorer and scoring enough points is clearly going to be this team's biggest challenge while they await Rose's return. Also, moving Gibson from the bench to a starter hurts the Bulls in many ways. Gibson can't backup Noah at center if he's the starting PF and a Boozer absence probably brings Radmanovich into the rotation (and Radmanovich sucks IMO).
I'd say Hinrich. That would mean the guy with the -12.5 PER has to play big minutes. I think Deng is the #1 option.
Yeah, having Nazr Mohammad step in so effortlessly -- a pleasant surprise. Nate Robinson being more than a chucker -- a pleasant surprise. Kirk being Kirk -- a pleasant surprise. The chemistry between Kirk and Rip and Booz -- a pleasant surprise Noah's generally good health - whew! The rest of the bench --- patience.... Their job is to hold the fort down until the reinforcements come. And maybe they don't come this year? In answer to Denny's question, I can see the rationale for least affording an injured Kirk. But...if you look at this with a longer term point of view, it might be something that bears good fruit in a year or two, if Teague is force fed some development, and Thibs helps him keep his chin up in spite of daily failures. I agree that Boozer's absence will hurt, as there is nobody to develop behind Taj. But yeah, the guy we can least afford to lose is the guy Thibs counts on for >40 minutes per game, Sir Luol. (KC has already benighted him, I think)
Goodhope, I agree with the general idea about Marcus, but the specifics of his situation don't support your desires, IMO. Right now he looks like the kind of guy that if you put him in the game you pray the team hasn't relinquished a ten point difference on the scoreboard by the time he gets out. Once the season starts he won't have enough development time to get from point A to point B. We'll bring back Mike James on a series of 10 day contracts before we play Marcus. Otherwise, I more or less agree with the other observations. We're not good enough to beat good teams at their best, but we should be good enough get in the playoffs and maybe make the second round if the ball bounces our way (assuming we never have a healthy Derrick). To me the biggest relief is the combined play of Kirk and Nate. If they stay healthy they look like they should compliment each other pretty well and hold the fort down. I see little reason to expect the play of Noah, Boozer, Taj, Deng or Rip to be all that different from years past. That's more or less a good thing. Boozer'll put more points on the board since his job will no longer be to get out of Rose and Noah's way on offense......but he ain't gonna carry us. He'll still have his good nights and bad nights and mostly score off of others.
Noah is really good at offensive rebounding and scoring on put backs. That is going to make up for a lot of ills.
You can calculate "Game Score" which is like a rough estimate of PER. Then you can use average league offensive rating to adjust for league environment. Although, PER/GS needs to have a usage component or it is much less valuable. "Hollinger game score As an extension of the Player Efficiency Rating, Hollinger also developed a simpler formula that quantifies how impressive a player's individual performance is in a given game. The Hollinger Game Score formula is: (Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0) The entire modern box score of the player is needed for calculation, including offensive and defensive rebounding, steals, blocks and turnovers, so the Hollinger Game Score can only be applied to games played since the 1978 season." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hollinger
All the guys are playing as advertised for the most part, except for Hinrich who does look like his old self to me as well. Let's hope he can stay healthy. Looking like a bottom tier playoff team if all goes well before Derrick comes back. They need a second star in order to hang with the elites. Its going to be tough some nights scoring the basketball.
I did say, "might". You just never know what happens in player's minds that allow them to start making sense of their role. I can hope, right? I have no doubt, however, that the team would suffer in the short term.
Rosenthall, has Marquis' play of late changed your mind about the timetable for his becoming a useful nba player?
He's going to languish on our bench, then get cut. He'll sign with the Knicks and be the next Jeremy Lin.
GH, I'm happy to admit that I might have to eat some crow He's very raw, but damn, is he fast. It still looks like Thibs has decided to keep him on the bench this year, but yes, if one of Nate or Kirk goes down for a while then I'll expect Marquis to see some time. His defense definitely looks legit.
