Well we are getting quite close to it all now. Regardless of how it ends up, as a fan I’m just happy to see them playing great ball, playing above expectation, and with STILL so much potential left waiting to be developed. (Exciting time to be a Blazer!) With that said I still think a final push, as we are back in good form, is not unreasonable for Home Court. Here are my predictions for what’s left, factoring in each matchup between Portland and Houston (Ignoring the Clippers for now since it IS possible they drop to a tie with us but we’ll just let the Clips do whatever they are going to do for now) APRIL 2nd HOU @ TOR HOUSTON LOSS - 103 to TOR 107 If ever there was a chance to strike for the Raptors against Houston this would be it. I don’t see Dwight back in the picture and they should be able to play some better offense in the middle. A victory here would start the path the Blazers need to see Houston go down over the remaining games of the season! HOU W-49 L-25 (.662) HOU W-49 L-25 (.662) PDX W-49 L-27 (.645) APRIL 4th PHX @ PDX PORTLAND LOSS 93 to PHX 109 The Suns were the only team to have our number early in the season, back when it was all offense and no D for us. I think tables are turned a bit, and PHX is fighting hard for a spot at all so this is a no-slouch game. Fueled by the home crowd, the desire to make our push for home court felt, this will be a early fight with Portland getting established early and breaking the will of the Suns. OKC @ HOU HOUSTON WIN 111 to OKC 107 Houston isn’t happy they’ve lost a couple now but I don’t think they will have the personnel on the court to do anything about it. I think OKC comes in here and does Portland a favor by breaking their spirit and giving the Rockets their 4th straight loss. HOU W-49 L-26 (.653) HOU W-50 L-25 (.666) PDX W-50 L-27 (.649) PDX W-49 L-28 (.645) APRIL 6th NOP @ PDX PORTLAND WIN 100 to NOP 94 This is a take care of business game for Portland. The first 2 meetings (within 1 week of each other back in December) were tight games causing a split. A few weeks ago we took care of business there and looked overall better then them. Home court for the Blazers plus locked in on what will be a 5-game roll equals another win for us. DEN @ HOU HOUSTON WIN 130 to DEN 125 Houston isn’t likely going to drop 4 in a row to the likes of Denver. Not saying we can’t get an upset here, but considering that the Nuggets play them again 3 days later in Denver catching the Rockets on the latter of a back-to-back, THAT match is more likely in their favor. Houston win in this one, but we’ll take any surprises here HOU W-50 L-26 (.658) HOU W-51 L-25 (.671) PDX W-51 L-27 (.654) PDX W-50 L-28 (.641) April 8th HOU @ LAL HOUSTON WIN 145 to LAL 130 Mini 3 game road trip for Houston starts with the first of a Back-to-Back with the Lakers. If Dwight is back, this is a bit of a contest. If not, its very likely that the Lakers finish what they tried to start with Portland and spoil things in our favor. Lakers proved they can throw up points, Houston can do the same…but with Gasol back in the starting lineup and the Sasquatch along side him they could cause problems for a struggling Rockets team. I actually think Houston wins this one, but as always, I’ll take a loss! HOU W-51 L-26 (.662) HOU W-52 L-25 (.675) PDX W-51 L-27 (.654) April 9th SAC @ PDX PORTLAND WIN 100 to SAC 99 This is a red-hot-and-rolling sort of game for Portland that, if the evening plays out to my wishes, will have the media buzzing over what ‘might be’ and restore Portland to the discussion of one of the ‘better’ teams in all of the NBA. Blazers dropped one to the kings in Sacramento that they should have likely won. Flat out we close out the kings, take the series. Only pitfall is we will have had 2 days off and need to get past the glow of what will be 6 in a row. I think we are dialed in though and with the Rockets playing tonight willing ourselves to victory. HOU @ DEN HOUSTON LOSS 116 to DEN 123 This is the previously mentioned rematch that, if Denver didn’t do it earlier in the week, they have the best chance to do it now. A win for the Rockets in LA actually might benefit Denver here since the ‘desperation rage’ that likely would follow a loss to the Lakers might keep Houston from going ape in the Mile High city and allow the Nuggets some room to strike. Like a good game of Clue™ Denver, with the rock, in the Pepsi Center. HOU W-51 L-27 (.654) HOU W-52 L-26 (.666) PDX W-52 L-27 (.658) PDX W-51 L-28 (.646) April 11th POR @ UTA PORTLAND WIN 111 to UTA 99 Yes, it’s the last road game of the season and first one since the win in LA. Portland gets 2 nights of reset before heading here so there is plenty of time to get their heads right about it and just TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS. This should be a season sweep for the Blazers as the prior 3 meetings were ‘handled’ without much concern and we are looking even better now. I doubt there will be a drop off in performance here since, again if its all playing out to my plan, Portland needs this one to keep the pressure on Houston who should have had at least 2 losses by now (hopefully more!) HOU @ MIN HOUSTON LOSS 110 to MIN 112 This is a 50/50 game. Houston has manhandled the Wolves in the first 3 meetings this season, and by this time I think Dwight is back and in form so I just don’t know. The saving grace for Blazer fans is this is game 3 of a road trip that hopefully has dished out 1 loss to the Rockets and maybe its some sort of Timberwolves Fan Night so people actually show up to give Love to Love. Dunno. I think Houston takes this one. HOU W-52 L-27 (.658) HOU W-52 L-27 (.658) PDX W-53 L-27 (.663) PDX W-52 L-28 (.650) April 12th NOP @ HOU Big Easy comes in here and gets a win. This is the 2nd of a Back-to-Back, the 2nd back-to-back in a row and game 4 in 5 nights for Houston. The Pelicans have played the Rockets close in January, and 3 games left for Houston 2 of which are against this team this is the best shot for a New Orleans victory. Go Pelicans! (Yeah, I imagine even their own fans hate saying that, it just sounds funny). HOU W-52 L-28 (.650) PDX W-53 L-27 (.663) April 13th GSW @ PDX If the record is what I believe it to be, with the loss column tied and Portland with one more win than the Rockets then there is no way that GSW win this game in the Moda Center. This will be the energy game, and possibly ‘statement’ game (one of 2 with one more to go) to the league that we are here, and we are contenders. If Portland can go to that next level and DOMINATE the Warriors we can make a case we are here to win in the playoffs, not just satisfied with “We made it and that’s victory enough”. Regardless this is a good game and hopefully a Blazer win. HOU W-52 L-28 (.650) PDX W-54 L-27 (.667) April 14th SAS @ HOU This is the most pivotal game of the season for the Rockets I think. Depending on where the Spurs are in their mindset, and where Pop is…this will be vital no matter what. I think San Antonio will be engaged and hungry to win this one. Likely even with 1st place locked up. The Rockets have won all 3 contests this year against the Spurs, they don’t want to be swept by anyone I don’t think. But again, if they don’t ‘feel’ they have anything to lose then I could see them playing this with big rests for Timmy, Manu and Parker. Lets hope that’s not the case because if the Rockets record here is @ 27 losses, we need them to drop this one. HOU W-52 L-29 (.642) PDX W-54 L-27 (.667) April 16th LAC @ PDX What a game this could be!!! This is a setup, an opportunity, and really could be _THE_ game in the league that everyone will want to watch. If Portland has a 1 game lead in the Loss Category to Houston coming into here, then all pressure will be on the Blazers. I wouldn’t have it any other way for this season though. The Clippers could be in this discussion too but we’ve ignored them for purpose of focus in this post. It’s possible that coming into this game they are 2-4 with losses to PHX, DAL, OKC and take your spoiler pick of LAL, SAC or DEN. If this is the case and Houston’s records is 28 losses at this point then a Blazer win would move them to 3rd. (beating HOU outright and taking the Win/Loss tiebreaker over the Clippers) HOU @ NOP It’s a road game to finish the season for the Rockets and likely a comfortable victory over the Pelicans. If New Orleans did manage to get the win over Houston last week then all the more incentive for payback (since if this record I’m predicting holds, they will have plenty of anger over dropping to them and allowing Portland to move in position (and if that previously mentioned LAC records happens HOU drops as far a 5th since it will go Blazers, Clippers, Houston for 3, 4, and 5 (bet Houston wishes they had one at least ONE game against LAC before facing them in Round 1 without Home Court >.> ) HOU W-53 L-29 (.646) PDX W-55 L-27 (.671) THE SHORT VERSION: FOR PORTLAND We need to win out, and there is a good chance we can do that. If all things play out as I’ve predicted then there is a chance that we can give one game up (likely to the clippers or the warriors). Otherwise if Houston wins one of the predicted losses (like the split games to DEN or NOP…possibly that SAS game if Pop rests everyone) then Portland HAS to win out. FOR HOUSTON Injury now is their biggest enemy. Without Dwight and Bev not in the lineup there is room for teams like TOR, OKC, and SAS to win in deciding fashion, but more importantly the spoiler door is open for teams like MIN to take a game along with DEN and NOP splitting the 2 remaining games they each have with the Rockets. Dwight will come back but not before damage has been done I think This is some Solid Hope for Blazer fans as there is a real chance to improve their position. If we control our own games and win out through the final game on the schedule and Houston gives us the magic number of at least 4 losses going into the 16th then LAC vs PDX becomes the showdown of the year (and if LAC has slumped over their last six with a 2-4 (possible…very possible) then it’s a crowded 3-way with Portland being in the Driver Seat and the most to gain from a victory. (However more losses by HOU would be better ) GO BLAZERS!
Merge please http://sportstwo.com/threads/260091...nd-of-season-Playoffs!!?p=3298965#post3298965 http://sportstwo.com/threads/257966-The-Great-Playoff-Chase?p=3299043#post3299043 http://sportstwo.com/threads/259909...tage-in-the-first-round?p=3298982#post3298982
He "calls it" with only two posts and this is the best you could do? HCP is getting soft. Maybe the C stands for Charmin now.
is "HCA" something to do with "Hispanic causing" apathy? arousal? antisemitism? anger? agony? autism?
You know what, good point. Who cares what this rook is calling! He copy and pastes as if he's Golliver!
Yes, very nice post - I hadn't looked at what Houston had remaining, and your analysis does seem plausible. That would certainly be a welcome development!
Very thoughtful and nice post. Ill rep you for it when i get home. Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk
Thanks all, and yeah the more I looked at it...even if HOU has Dwight back to full power its still a very possible slide in our favor. Gotta respect a man who fronts a Beard and all and shoots like he does, but I don't think Harden can carry a team like the Rockets in the same way someone like KD could. (Although supporting cast for OKC is better that for HOU so not a fair comparison)
** UPDATED OP ** Houston loss to the Raptors and we are off to a good start!! Friday will be a fun one
Good post. One problem, unless my eyes stopped working, you seem to have credited a loss to Houston that you predicted as a win (loss 28, iirc). IF Portland passes Houston for 4th, that would be a pretty good recovery from the tailspin they were going into the last month+.
I had to go back and do a double take to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong I have Houston taking losses from: TOR, OKC, DEN, NOP, and SAS. There is a chance they lose to MIN (and more likely if the T-Wolves throw down like they did last night!) but I do credit HOUR with a win against MIN (i'd love to be wrong there...or any of the wins i'm giving Houston for that matter ) TOR was sketchy at the end there but got it done so that's one down and loss 25 for Houston. If you are talking about the commentary for the games on the 16th I do mention that if the Rockets are only 28 losses at that point we still move up (and possibly higher depending on the Clippers) even though I think they have 29 losses as of that night.
