In this thread, I'll list by position who I think has a chance to be selected by the Sonics in the first round. This is assuming they remain at the 7th pick in the first round. It should be noted that this draft is a huge toss-up in terms of talent. There are no sure things and draft positions are likely to change during workouts, after which I'll probably update this list. If you want more detailed analyses of the players I recommend checking out http://www.draftexpress.com First, the players that are almost certain to be gone before the 7th pick: Tyrus Thomas, LSU (Freshman) Lamarcus Aldridge, Texas (Sophomore) Joakim Noah, Florida (Sophomore) Andrea Bargnani, Italy Not a big deal, since they're all power forwards and the Sonics seem to be set in the size department for now. If any of those guys dropped, though, I doubt Rick Sund would hesitate to pull the trigger. On to the positional rankings. Centers: None. The only true centers projected to be taken in the first round aren't worthy of a 7th pick and, of course, we have next Twin Towers in Johan Petro and Robo Swift. Power Forwards: 1. Tiago Splitter, Brazil Why? - We can keep him overseas for a couple seasons and potentially have a very good power forward ready to play in the NBA without needing to develop him much. He wouldn't affect the big man roster, which is currently full. It's unlikely a Fran Vasquez situation would repeat itself. Why not? - Foreign players are even more of a risk than Americans due to the lack of scouting material. Even if he stays overseas for a few seasons, the current Sonics power forwards are young enough that they'll be in their prime at that time and Splitter may never have a place on the roster. 2. Shelden Williams, Duke (Senior) Why? - He's better at defense than anybody on the Sonics right now, he's experienced, and he can do the dirty work down low while scoring a few buckets. You can never really have enough size. Why not? - His game is somewhat like a less athletic Chris Wilcox's and there's not a lot of potential there for a lottery pick. Small Forwards: 1. Adam Morrison, Gonzaga (Junior) Why? - The locals would love to have him on the team, and with the Sonics practically begging for a new stadium deal, any leverage they can get could be essential. He could make Rashard Lewis tradable if he has an immediate impact. His passion for the game is a trait the Sonics sorely lack at times. Why not? - He's not going to do anything Rashard Lewis can't do, since he can't play defense or rebound much. He might take a while to adjust to the NBA because he's not a great athlete. It's hard to see him getting along with everybody in the locker if he continues his oncourt antics in the pros. Potential to be a major bust. 2. Rudy Gay, Connecticut (Sophomore) Why? - His lackadaisical attitude and uninspiring performance in the NCAA tournament has caused his stock to drop, but he still has incredible potential as a basketball player. With their depth, the Sonics can afford to take a risk with the 7th pick and Rudy Gay would be a good one. Even if he never lives up to his potential, he'll probably be a solid defensive player. Why not? ? The Sonics hardly need another softy on the team, and Rudy Gay isn?t exactly renowned for his toughness. A huge risk, huge reward type of player, but Charlie Villanueva was in the exact same situation with people questioning his desire and has exceeded expectations by far. 3. Rodney Carney, Memphis (Senior) Why? ? On the off chance both Morrison and Gay are off the board by the 7th pick, Carney is the next best option at small forward. He?s one of the most athletic basketball players in America and would bolster the fast break and the defense if he was picked. Why not? ? For an athletic player, he doesn?t have a whole lot of potential. He could learn to be a good offensive player in time, but right now Carney lacks the basketball understanding to do anything but rely on his freakish physical attributes. Unless he completely blows the Sonics away during a workout, he?s not a great risk for the team to take. Shooting Guards: 1. Brandon Roy, Washington (Senior) Why? ? The local connection comes into play again. If drafted, Roy might instantly become the most popular player on the Sonics after starring in Seattle for the Huskies all year. He was one of the best defensive players in the nation, and has tremendous offensive versatility. There?s not much he can?t do on a basketball court. Why not? ? Roy isn?t a slowpoke by any means, but he also isn?t a spectacular athlete. Like Morrison, his game could be limited until he learns how to play around the uber-athletes of the NBA. Although he improved his shooting this year, he?s not a great shooter by any stretch of the imagination, which means he basically projects to be the type of player as Damien Wilkins is right now. The Sonics might do better looking towards a more potential-laden player. 2. J.J. Redick, Duke (Senior) Why? ? The dude can shoot. Anywhere, anytime. He?s one of the most experienced players in the draft, and his improvement over four years at Duke suggests that he has the potential for even more growth as a player. He?s sort of similar to Ray Allen, but not so much that he would be able to fit into the offense perfectly. Why not? ? Redick would be yet another defensive liability for the Sonics. He can shoot, but the way he?s choked in NCAA tournament games against athletic defenders during his career points to him being a spot-up shooter in the NBA instead of being able to use all the offensive moves he developed in college. He would help the Sonics, but it?s hard to see him playing much with Allen on the team, since neither can play anything but shooting guard for extended minutes. Combo Guards (PG/SG): 1. Mardy Collins, Temple (Senior) Why? ? Collins is basically Brandon Roy with a point guard tendencies. He could help the Sonics by bringing the ball up the court occasionally and playing tough defense. Why not? ? Like Roy, Collins isn?t a great athlete and isn?t bursting with potential. He played in a difficult system at Temple, which makes it even harder to judge how he?d play in the NBA. If he doesn?t improve outside of such a restrictive system he?s a lifetime role player and nothing more. The importance of having another ball-handler is diminished now that Earl Watson is on the team. 2. Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas (Junior) Why? ? Brewer is a lot like a more athletic Collins with a worse jump shot. He can bring the ball up the floor with ease despite being 6?7? and would provide a lot of energy from the bench with his quickness and athleticism. Pairing him with Luke Ridnour or Earl Watson would create an explosive fast break tandem. His defense is reportedly very good as well, but I haven?t seen enough of that to know. Why not? ? For all his energy, Brewer isn?t as smart a basketball player as the other guards on these lists. He relies on instinct to make plays instead of his head. However, as Chris Wilcox has shown, sometimes a little leap before you look can be a good thing. Brewer also has a medical problem with his arm that prevents him from having good form on his jump shot, something that could be a major problem down the road. Like Carney, he has the physical tools to be great but doesn?t seem to have an exceptional basketball mind. 3. Randy Foye, Villanova (Senior) Why? ? A one-man scoring machine, Foye has the skills to be sixth man of the year in the future. He?s got shooting guard game with a point guard height, but a running back?s frame. He?s such a good scorer that there?s almost no question he can get his shot off in the NBA, and he can play some stiff defense, too. He?s used to guarding taller players after spending the year in Villanova?s four guard system. Why not? ? Foye simply doesn?t have the height to play shooting guard full time, and doesn?t find teammates well enough to play the point full time. Unless he can prove me wrong before the draft, I?m confident saying that he?s tailor-made for bringing off the bench in a Bobby Jackson style role. The Sonics could use a scorer like that off the bench, but not one Randy Foye?s height. I doubt management wants three guys close to six feet tall in the rotation. And despite his experience guarding taller players, the NBA is on a different level. Point Guards: 1. Marcus Williams, Connecticut (Junior) Why? ? He has the potential to replace Ridnour because he is a more physical guard. He was the best passing point guard in college basketball this year, and has shown the ability to set up his teams perfectly both in the half court and on the fast break. Why not? - Even if he is physically more powerful than Ridnour, he?s not much more athletic (if at all) and doesn?t play much better defense. The Sonics have made a point of avoiding players who get in trouble with the law, and Williams got a black mark on his record after stealing laptops earlier in the year. Ridnour also seems to have some sort of embarrassing information about the front office, because they have looked past his mediocre play many times and kept him as the starter, so the chances they?d draft a replacement for him are somewhat low. 2. Rajon Rondo, Kentucky (Sophmore) Why? ? He might have been the number one prospect on the Sonics? draft board if they hadn?t traded for Earl Watson. Rondo has the potential to be an elite defender in the NBA, and can do just about everything on offense except shoot the ball. He possesses enormous potential, though. Why not? ? Now that the Sonics have Earl Watson, Rondo wouldn?t have much of a shot at cracking the rotation except at shooting guard, a position that he proved he can?t played this year at Kentucky. He had a lackluster year all around, but I attribute that to Tubby Smith?s own lackluster coaching, not Rondo?s personal deficiencies. Well, there you have it. More proof that I have way too much time on my hands. The last thing I?ll do is list the aforementioned players in their current order on my Unofficial Projected Sonics Draft Board. Remember, a lot changes before the draft. Until next time. 1. Adam Morrison 2. Rudy Gay 3. Brandon Roy 4. Mardy Collins 5. Ronnie Brewer 6. J.J. Redick 7. Rodney Carney 8. Tiago Splitter 9. Randy Foye 10. Marcus Williams 11. Shelden Williams 12. Rajon Rondo
Nice preview, very nice. I've said in the past that I'd like to have Roy. Morrison could be a bust, but he would give us another shooter, which is always a commodity. One thing to remember is that we may have Gelabale next year if all goes according to plan, so he'd fill that need for an athletic, playmaking 2/3.
I really, really like Rondo, but he's probably not going to be worth the pick we have at this point, and as Cas said, with Watson and Ridnour likely to be around next season it wouldn't make much sense. He has the potential to be the best defensive guard in the league though.
This thread should be stickied. I am a little disappointed to see the ranking of some of your draft prospects. For one, unless as an organization we decide not to overspend for Wilcox, there is absolutely no reason for us to even consider a low post option with our lottery pick--let alone someone who is as overrated as Tiago Splitter. The fact that your list would include Collins, Brewer, Redick, and Carney over Randy Foye is absolutely ridiculous. To be honest, outside of your top three picks I would probably look at 9-12, in that order be ahead of 4-8 who wouldn't be in that particular order. My list would probably look more like this after pick: 1. Adam Morrison 2. Brandon Roy 3. Rudy Gay 4. Randy Foye 5. Marcus Williams 6. Shelden Williams (Wilcox's free agency would make this pick the wild card) 7. Rajon Rondo 8. Rodney Carney 9. Mardy Collins 10. J.J. Redick 11. Corey Brewer Something tells me that Noah stock will drop at draft time too. Not only b/c his stock is at an all time high right now but also b/c he is overrated and a bit of a head case. Plus him yelling "I love you Roscoe," when winning the national championship made me question his character 100%. Anyone willing to do the homework on that one 1.) really has too much time on their hands and 2.) will enjoy the story in the Sonic suite.
The only reason Randy Foye is so low is because he's 6'2", 6'3" at most. The Supes should be looking for somebody who can guard swingmen.
Shiek, Corey Brewer? He means Ronnie Brewer, who I think would be a great fit for the Supes as someone who can log minutes at both guard spots and play defense.
