Come one, come all...summer cap room primer.

Storyteller would do a much better job, I'm sure...but here ya go.

Portland, as it stands, has 50,546,518 in contracts and holds for next year (does not include 2009 1st, but does include PetKo and Freeland and renounces Frye). Even if you assume cap stays at 58.8M, that leaves 8.3M - 2009 1st hold (which, iirc is dependent on slot and should be around 1.2M or so). Let's call it an even $7M in cap space if we do nothing and a cap number of 51.8M.

If we don't exercise the option on Blake, then we have 47.8M in contracts and holds (C&H). If we don't pick up Travis, either, that's 44.2M. Supposedly that would give us a chance to make up to a 14M "lopsided deal or deals" for anyone we want. We cannot use MLE, BAE or any veteran's exceptions. And we've given up Travis and Blake.

Right now, KP could trade Blake and cash to a team under the cap to get a 4M trade exception. Same with Frye for a 3.2M exception, or Outlaw for a 4M exception. That way, we'd get space, PLUS 2 or 3 more valuable exceptions that could be used at the trade deadline or draft. Or, he could package RLEC, Outlaw and Blake right now for a stud, and then take MLE into the FA period, do sign and trades then, or use assets like the TEs at the draft.

Now, if we trade Sergio/Raef/Outlaw for VC and Dooling (kind of the worst-case scenario) we'd have 62M tied up for next year, which seems over the cap. But if the Miles appeal goes through, we are right back where we started with 53M tied up, the ability to not pick up Blake's option for another 4M and then we'd have ~10M in space.

EDIT: There really doesn't seem to be a downside for trading now. There IS a depreciation of assets if we trade later.

 

I mistyped that, Pop...thanks for the check.

The only way (as of right now) that we get anywhere near the space to make a "lopsided trade" as we can now is by renouncing Frye, Outlaw and Blake.

If we trade them now, we get a good player NOW. If we renounce them THEN, we have a SHOT at getting a good player/players THEN.

We keep talking about PA's pocketbook...people should do the math on what another 2-3 games in the second round and conf. finals, with the tripled prices, does for PA's pocketbook.

 

Where is Storyteller? I miss him.

(No offense, Brian! )

Trading Frye to a team under the cap makes a lot of sense to me... Frye is NOT useful on the court, IMO, and even if we cover the rest of his salary in cash, we'd come out ahead because of luxury tax ramifications.

Blake's still the starter and he'd be harder to lose for nothing.

Thanks for the overview!

Ed O.

 

But you shouldn't assume the cap is staying at 58.8. The league has notified the teams that the cap will be lower.

barfo

 

Exactly. I was using the best-case scenario for those who want to hold off on trading now.

 

Worst-case (imo) is that on draft day we trade Blake for another 4M (but longer) contract, or we pick up his option and Travis' by June 30.

Then the beancounters start figuring things on July 1, and it comes out that the cap will be at around 55M. And our Miles appeal doesn't work.

That leaves us with no ability to renounce Blake or Outlaw, less than the MLE to offer someone, and no ability to use the MLE. We'll be outbid by teams over the cap, if I'm reading the CBA right (which I may not be, but I think I am).

We're stuck hoping for S&Ts, AND we don't have an impact SF or PG. Or we could just trade now, and work with S&Ts and MLE in July.

 

I remember when he was LasVegasBlazersFan.

Oh, Storyteller, why have you foresaken us?



Ed O.

 

Frye can't unless you want a 10M or so cap hold. I don't think KP/TP do.

 

If the cap stays as-is, 7M.

If the cap goes down, (like Stern said it probably would), probably 5M or so.

If we don't pick up TrOut and Blake's options, 13-15M.

If we don't pick up TrOut and Blake's options and Miles is removed from the books through appeal, 22-24M.

 

We don't know for sure until we know the salary cap figure.

Then you need to figure out who of Outlaw/Blake/Frye you're going to renounce to clear more space.

Ed O.

 

So if it drops $1.5m and we renounce Frye but keep Blake and Outlaw under their present deals, that means we'll be at $5.5m under the cap.

What's the MLE again?

Ed O.

 

Doesn't matter, really, how much over the cap you are until lux tax threshold is in view, and honestly they have all year to get under that.

A drop of 1.5M means we'll have 5.5M to use...just about exactly the MLE. Unless we don't pick up Blake/Outlaw's options and renounce Frye. But if we were doing that, why not trade them today and get something for them?