I wanted to chart the last couple regular seasons of Yao and Shaq, game by game, to compare the trend of their stats. I've got two charts, both displaying data representing average "game score" over their last 9 games (including across seasons, which may not have been a good idea). I'll stress up front that aspects of the game not recorded in the box score (like help defense, intimidation, "making other players better", etc.) is not captured by this formula. <font face=""Courier New"">Game score = (Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0)</font> Game score (developed by ESPN contributor and stat-guy John Hollinger) is a composite formula which takes all the box score numbers for a player and summarizes how good a game he had, statistically. It's a decent, relatively quick way to guage how good a game a player had ("by the numbers"), or (as I'm doing here) how good a stretch of games a player has had. <u>Yao and Shaq's Statistical Trend (unadjusted for minutes played)</u> The above chart doesn't take into account minutes played. Consequentially, it favors the player who's getting more minutes (Shaq for most of the first season, and Yao this season). Again, each data point represents the average game score for the player over his last 9 games. I added trend lines for each player as well, to aid in the comparison. Note that the top axis refers to the dates of Shaq's games, while the bottom axis is for Yao's games. Also, observe that Yao has steadily been improving since December unlike he ever has. For those who think his last 9 games are just a fluke, since January his "last 9 games" have been getting better and better. I believe this is the longest period of sustained improvement of his career. <u>Yao and Shaq's Statistical Trend (adjusted for minutes played)</u> Adjusting for minutes played, we probably get a better indication of how well they've played. Shaq was well ahead most of last season, while this season it's has been much closer. Also, Shaq overall has been more consistent, per minute, while Yao has been prone to slumps and surges. If you look at the trendline, it's interesting how they seemingly have converged at this point. Both Shaq and Yao are gaining steam as this season is coming to a close. Statistically speaking, it seems like they're pretty much at a tie right now. One other thing to note: Yao's numbers over the last 9 games (whether you want to adjust for minutes or not), beats any 9-game stretch Shaq has had since he's been with Miami.
Obviously though Yao is getting better numbers than shaq in miami, with 27.6 and 13.6 over the last 9, that's more like shaq in LA in his prime. How long could this last though?
Thanks for answering to my request, durvasa. Much appreciated. One interesting thing to note is how Yao's numbers were so up and down up until November of this year. Shaq's been pretty consistent all along, and that's what Yao needs to get to. However, since his return from injury Yao has been steadily going up, and what I'd definitely love to see is his ratings stay up there. From the chart, it's really easy to see how Shaq's performance has dropped this season. It's been mostly a downward trend, and I'd predict that Yao would continue going up while Shaq would consistently decrease.
