I decided to take a look at how finals teams have been constructed the last few decades. I'm usually not a fan of judging players by points scored but with a team successful enough to make the finals playoff PPG is as good a measure as any. There have been 11 unique individuals leading their team in scoring for the last 20 champions; 7 drafted by their team, 2 signed as free agents and 2 acquired via trade. The number indicates draft position: #1 Duncan #3 Jordan #5 Wade #7 Curry #9 Dirk #13 Kobe #28 Parker LeBron and Shaq were signed as free agents. Garnett and Rip Hamilton were acquired via trade. Obviously the takeway here is don't select players with even lottery picks. Next I looked at the top scorer from the team that lost in the finals. There were 10 more unique individuals, 8 drafted by their original teams and two acquired via trade: #1 Dwight #1 Iverson #1 LeBron #2 Durant #10 Pierce #11 Reggie Miller #13 Malone #17 Kemp Jason Kidd and Latrell Sprewell were acquired via trade. Finally lets look at the second leading scorers. For both teams in the finals there were 19 more individuals of whom 9 were still with the team that drafted them. 3 signed as free agents and 7 acquired via trade: #1 Kenyon Martin #1 David Robinson #2 Payton #4 Westbrook #5 Pippen #11 Klay #16 Stockton #20 Ilgauskas #57 Ginobili Billups, Allan Houston and Rashard Lewis were signed as free agents. Jalen Rose, JR Smith, Aaron McKie, Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Shaq, and Jason Terry were all acquired via trade. In total there was 40 unique players; 24 drafted by their original team, 5 signed as free agents and 11 acquired via trade. Six #1 picks Six picks #2-#5 Six picks at the end of lottery #6-13 Six picks in the middle to end of the first round or with Ginobili the second round.
This bodes well for us as we are loaded with guys taken in this range, and will probably have another next June (but lose Kaman and maybe Hendo). Guys we drafted: #6 Lillard #10 McCollum #11 Leonard #? 2016 Pick Guys drafted by others: #6 Kaman (doesn't really count) #8 Aminu (counts) #9 Vonleh (better count) #12 Henderson (may not count) #13 Davis There's a lot of value there for a team $14 million below the league's salary floor. BNM
Well, This has basically solidified my point all along. We have enough lotto picks already. One more doesn't change this much.
Even furthering my point about the upcoming draft. Its a HUGE crapshoot. Much rather trade for potentials and stars and throw contracts at free agents while our current lotto picks either prove themselves or get traded. If all drafts had equal talent, then I would be more on the wagon of trying to get a top 3, but they aren't. So we tank to try to get a top three. We end up with 5. only the top three are truly potential future game changing all stars.. we are left with another that we already have. Lotto is a crapshoot. Why do you think the odds are always in the millions. I would say its a million to one odds that we would get a future MVP or perennial all star if we tried to tank for a top three this season.
To see just how hard it is to win a title through the draft, just look at Cleveland. They won the ultimate draft sweepstakes ever when they got to pick LeBron at No.1, and still couldn't win a title. After 7 years and zero rings, he left for 4 years and let then get THREE more No. 1 overall picks in those 4 years (plus 2 No. 4 picks) - and they STILL haven't won an NBA championship. Think about that - LeBron + 3 more No. 1 picks and they still haven't won a title. This may be the year they finally do, but there are no guarantees. So, will a top 3 pick in the 2016 draft get us closer to a ring? Who knows. I know I don't. BNM
The 2016 draft is supposed to be one of the weaker drafts in the last decade. Obviously Simmons is a stud prospect but after the top 2 its weak. Thats why Neil insisted we keep our 2015 pick in the Denver trade.
Most drafts are fairly weak in comparison to the best couple drafts ever. One of the many reason why I think people who think we should tank for a top 3 pick are delusional about the importance of it. Yes, its valuable, but much more valuable as a trade pc then thinking your assured an all star. People who think we should tank, I think just see it going from tank =top 3 pick. MANY MANY factors go into it before you get that top three pick and then many more factors go into it to have that top 3 pick actually be a intrical piece to win a ring. Thank you for some of these recent posts on stats that help back me up and shine light on those with tunnel vision regarding the draft being the end all for us this next off season.
I would LOVE to make trades for superstars! That's definitely the best option. But it takes two to tango. Superstars are rarely traded. Regarding crap-shoots - you're right, the draft is a crap shoot. But so is betting on our current guys to become superstars. I don't know anything about NCAA ball, but I think odds are higher that Simmons and/or Bender become a superstar than anyone on our team (aside from Dame) becoming a star. That's why you hope for (not tank for) a high lotto pick.
Good information. What I gathered from this is 50% of the teams had a top 5 talent. You broke it down by trade/FA/draft but in the end the big markets like L.A. get that talent regardless the way. Our team though struggles to get FA's in the first place let alone top 5 draft picks in there prime. So in our case we need to rely on the draft. What I'm afraid of is we have a lot of that middle young potential talent. And this year we should be around 8-11th probably in the west, which will not net us a top draft pick. I personally would have rathered chosen 3-4 core players and let them develop this year, and tank, then to put together a team just good enough to miss top talent.
I'm hoping for a consolidation trade this season. I think that's why Olshey put together this roster - so he has lots of interesting pieces to work trades with.
