OT Coronavirus: America in chaos, News and Updates. One million Americans dead and counting

IIRC, they were a little high in their last projection but maybe I'm thinking of another organization (yeeeeesh there have been a bazillion predictions!)

anyway, they estimate a current 4% total of infected nationally. That would be around 13 million and that looks kind of credible to me, although maybe a bit high. That's about 8 times the official number of positive cases. That would be a mortality rate around 0.75%. Again, that seems credible to my ignorant eyes.

in order to achieve effective herd immunity, a minimum of 70% of the population would have to have been infected, although for Covid I've seen 80% as the number. With a 0.75% mortality rate, a 70% target would leave 1.73 million dead. With an 80% rate, that would be 1.98 million dead. That's a high price to pay for herd immunity. And the problem with the herd immunity path is we don't know how long people would remain immune. It could be 4 years or it could be 3 months.

 

So the comedians are Reporter's now and the reporters Comedians, got it.

 

https://canbynowpod.com/news/canby-...e-with-the-coronavirus-it-was-just-a-bad-flu/

@HailBlazers

 

96,377 would give their opinion....if they could.

 

This is the truest definition of 'cutting off you're nose to spite you're face' I have ever seen.

WOW.

 

COVID-19 Weekly Report, May 19, 2020
Oregon's weekly report - check out zip codes
As testing goes up the percentage of positives has gone down. Check out the comments about A systematic.

 

The World Health Organization said lessons could be learned from Sweden — now its daily deaths are soaring
Published: May 22, 2020 at 9:32 a.m. ET
By
Archie Mitchell

Sweden was seen as a model for countries tackling coronavirus without economic disruption
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...y-deaths-are-soaring-2020-05-21?mod=home-page
Sweden’s policy of keeping schools, restaurants and businesses open while practicing social distancing to prevent the coronavirus pandemic from spreading was seen as bold, but now it has the highest deaths per capita in Europe from COVID-19.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...e-coronavirus-at-north-carolina-poultry-plant

570 Workers Test Positive For Coronavirus At North Carolina Poultry Plant

 

This video will give you a really good understanding of the statistics involved in modeling the pandemic and, basically why both sides in the political debate about reopening the economy are talking out of their backsides.

 

It was good and I agree with all that he said. But, you could tell he was targeting the heard immunity argument.

 

i watched the vid, and agree it is localized concerning risk/reward decisions, but there still needs for a centralized roll as overseer to be able to put the brakes on, if data suggests that it negatively impacts the greater less localized population, especially in concerns regarding travel from and into areas of breakout and/or the 'economic opportunity' zones. that guidance for the average person to form an informed opinion on the potential consequences of opening up really isn't there because we are still learning about the virus. the politicization negatively impacts any guidance suggested even. placing a higher value on capital by protecting business at the risk to labor without further compensation as a reward to determine if the costs are worth it to them is a problem in my opinion with an 'open it up' position that is not being addressed.

ps still need the ability of more, and faster testing before consumers will be willing to confidently re-engage in our new normal. i am in favor of phased reopening as the best management tool, and for the most part it has proven a success where it has been utilized with regard to risk with the thumb on the risk side of the balance.

 

you need to be cautious about this supposed drop in positives with more testing. For one thing, that's simply not true nationally when it comes to mortality rate. We're still hovering over a 5.9% mortality rate. We were at a 5.2% rate when we had tested 11,000 people/million. Now we are over 41,000 per million and have a 5.94% mortality rate

but perhaps a bigger factor is the extreme politicization of the CDC by the trump white house and how more and more often the data from the CDC is suspect and hard to trust. In this case:

"As of Friday, the CDC reported that America has done over 13 million tests. On a per capita basis, that still puts the United States in the #39 position—behind the U.K., Italy, Germany, and most of Europe, way behind nations like Iceland and the U.A.E. who are determined that everyone is going to get tested. Still, 13 million tests is a lot of tests, even if it did take months to get there, and even if just one Chinese province intends to do 11 million in just 10 days.


Only it seems that those numbers may be a little less than they seem on the surface. Because on Thursday the CDC acknowledged that the number of tests being reported combines the PCR results looking for active cases, with antibody tests looking for people who have been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. By combining those two values, the CDC is including test results from tests whose accuracy is still in doubt. And it could also be badly distorting the nation’s ability to conduct additional tests.

But the CDC action comes at a time when there is high concern over the ability of the United States to conduct a large number of cases in a short period. In order to support the reopening already underway in most states, it will require a very high level of testing ability—one that can be deployed again and again to spot active cases and support isolation and case tracing. By mixing together tests of all sorts, including those that were done to determine the percentage of people exposed across broad areas with no followup on individual cases, the CDC has made it seem as if the ability to test had greatly expanded, even though the value of all these tests was far from equal. It also appears that some of these tests were conducted across an extended period before they were added to the total, inflating the apparent increase in daily tests.


The mixing up of the two types of tests almost certainly contributed to the impression that the percentage of positive tests has rapidly declined over the last few days. That apparent decrease has been used both as an indication that the epidemic was somehow being brought under control, and that testing had expanded to the extent that it was broadly available. Neither of these impressions may be accurate, thanks to the mingling of PCR and antibody tests.


The CDC also seems to have made no effort to winnow out those tests whose results are suspect. Tests such as those used in two California counties generated national stories when they indicated that the number of people who had been exposed to COVID-19 may be far higher than expected. But it’s far more probable that these tests have a level of false positives that make their use in this kind of public survey questionable. These tests have still not been approved by the FDA.


Both antibody and PCR tests have value. But they are different tests for different purposes. Determining whether or not someone has been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 has critical value, especially as it seems increasingly likely that those with significant numbers of antibodies to the virus have obtained immunity to COVID-19 for a period of months or years. But determining who currently has COVID-19 and represents a potential vector of the disease is also critical. Putting both types of tests in one hat, and including the totals of tests that have not been approved along with tests that were conducted for purposes other than determining the status of an individual patient, inflates the number of valid tests that have been conducted and misrepresents the ability of the U.S. to conduct testing going forward."

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...a-could-create-misleading-picture-of-pandemic

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-inflating-America-s-testing-totals#read-more

 

While Trump cronies got early release due to Corona virus, last nigh Chris Hayes referenced a man who has been in prison for four years awaiting trial on drug charges. Not convicted of anything. He is paraplegic, has a respiratory condition, and tested positive for Corona virus. His family twice applied for emergency release and were turned down although he has not been convicted. His bail is $650,000. His family does not have the money, he's poor, black, and has no powerful friends, so he still is in jail, with courts shut, with high probability he won't survive.

 

I'm going to dispute your assertion a bit, at least on a general level

* on one side, you have those saying re-open nearly all phases of the economy right now. That side is fairly dismissive of concerns about the impact on the health care system and people lives. And also dismissive of advice from experts on epidemiology and public health. The economy is a much higher priority than public health

* on the other side, and I'd think people like Jay Inslee, Gavin Newsome, and Kate Brown are quite representative of that other side, you have people willing to open the economy cautiously and rely on data and numbers to determine the level of caution to attach to policies. Keep social distancing guidelines in place until it's more apparent what impact lifting restrictions has on the rate of spread, and what burdens those new policies place on the system.

where is the "talking out of their backsides" part about proceeding with caution?

sometimes, the 'both-sides' argument is false

 

Trump's going to do a white House briefing. What happened to the blonde lady that was quick on her feet?

 

On my way to the hospital to get my heart checked today.....will probably be tested for the virus...if I end up having it and die in the hospital I thought I'd just say..."fuck Donald Trump" here and "vote"....wish me luck …..

 

be safe my brother, be well