Division lead (or, whats weak this week)

[julius]

It's been a while since I updated this (having Portland start playing craptastically didn't help), so I wanted to do another one. With Portland finally getting off the schnide and winning some (coinciding with OKC losing 2 in a row and Portland winning the season series), things have changed a bit in the last week.

Current records:

Portland 38-19 (57 games, 25 left).
OKC 32-27 (59 games, 23 left).

OKC Is behind Portland by 8 games in the loss column (which is the important #). To Pass Portland, OKC has to win 9 more games than Portland does. Pretty much, the magic # for Portland to win the division is 17 games (the most OKC can win is 55, so 55-38=17). The magic # for Portland to make the playoffs is also 17.

That would be a 17-8 record for Portland, so I'll start from there.


If Portland finishes 16-9 (54-28), OKC has to go 23-0 (55-27).
If Portland finishes 15-10 (53-29), OKC has to go 22-1.

Instead of going through the potential records like this, I'll just say this. OKC has to HOPE Portland finishes no better than 11-14, to make it possible for them to win the division, winning 50 games (going 18-5 to finish the season) and Portland winning 49.

To put it into perspective, since Portland was at it's peak games over .500 (30-8, 22 games over .500), they have gone 8-11. They'd have to continue playing at this poor of a % to give the Thunder a decent shot at the division. While it is still mathematically possible, it seems unlikely.

There are at about 15 games that are "should win, and could win" wins left for Portland. And as I showed above, that would take a historic finish for OKC to pass Portland. The 5 game trip (in a stretch of 7 of 8 on the road) coming up is where the Thunder have their best chance of Portland faltering. The team plays the Raptors, Wizards, Heat, Magic, Grizzlies on the road, come home to play the Warriors, and then are out on the road to face Utah and Phoenix. If they can win 5 of those games (going 5-3) it will huge.

Especially when you take into account the Thunder have a stretch of 8 of 10 at home around the same time.

 

[KingSpeed]

It's done. We will win at least 54 this season. OKC needs to be worried about beating red hot Pelicans for the 8th playoff spot.

 

[Draco]

What the hell I'll type it out. Since both teams won today its now:

If Portland finishes 15-9 (54-28), OKC has to go 22-0 (55-27).
If Portland finishes 14-10 (53-29), OKC has to go 21-1 (54-28).
If Portland finishes 13-11 (52-30), OKC has to go 20-2 (53-29).
If Portland finishes 12-12 (51-31), OKC has to go 19-3 (52-30).
If Portland finishes 11-13 (50-32), OKC has to go 18-4 (51-31).
If Portland finishes 10-14 (49-33), OKC has to go 17-5 (50-32).
If Portland finishes 9-15 (48-34), OKC has to go 16-6 (49-33).
If Portland finishes 8-16 (47-35), OKC has to go 15-7 (48-34).
If Portland finishes 7-17 (46-36), OKC has to go 14-8 (47-35).
If Portland finishes 6-18 (45-37), OKC has to go 13-9 (46-36).
If Portland finishes 5-19 (44-38), OKC has to go 12-10 (45-37).
If Portland finishes 4-20 (43-39), OKC has to go 11-11 (44-38).
If Portland finishes 3-21 (42-40), OKC has to go 10-12 (43-39).
If Portland finishes 2-22 (41-41), OKC has to go 9-13 (42-40).
If Portland finishes 1-23 (40-42), OKC has to go 8-14 (41-41).
If Portland finishes 0-24 (39-43), OKC has to go 7-15 (40-42).

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I like our chances to go 14-10 from here on out. So can OKC only lose one game? Haha. Don't think so.

 

[Strenuus]

What the hell I'll type it out. Since both teams won today its now:

If Portland finishes 15-9 (54-28), OKC has to go 22-0 (55-27).
If Portland finishes 14-10 (53-29), OKC has to go 21-1 (54-28).
If Portland finishes 13-11 (52-30), OKC has to go 20-2 (53-29).
If Portland finishes 12-12 (51-31), OKC has to go 19-3 (52-30).
If Portland finishes 11-13 (50-32), OKC has to go 18-4 (51-31).
If Portland finishes 10-14 (49-33), OKC has to go 17-5 (50-32).
If Portland finishes 9-15 (48-34), OKC has to go 16-6 (49-33).
If Portland finishes 8-16 (47-35), OKC has to go 15-7 (48-34).
If Portland finishes 7-17 (46-36), OKC has to go 14-8 (47-35).
If Portland finishes 6-18 (45-37), OKC has to go 13-9 (46-36).
If Portland finishes 5-19 (44-38), OKC has to go 12-10 (45-37).
If Portland finishes 4-20 (43-39), OKC has to go 11-11 (44-38).
If Portland finishes 3-21 (42-40), OKC has to go 10-12 (43-39).
If Portland finishes 2-22 (41-41), OKC has to go 9-13 (42-40).
If Portland finishes 1-23 (40-42), OKC has to go 8-14 (41-41).
If Portland finishes 0-24 (39-43), OKC has to go 7-15 (40-42).

Thanks a bunch for doing this. Really clear now that even if we go .500, they'd have to go 19-3 to even win the division. Good to know.

 

[Draco]

We're just 3 wins from being guaranteed a winning record. After those stretches of being in the lottery I'll appreciate every year we have a winning record. So nice to think about playoff seeding instead of draft prospects.

I'm hoping we can put a little run together to challenge Memphis and Houston for the 2 and 3 seeds. I thought Houston would've lost more games when Dwight went out but they're still winning. Would be nice to possibly have home court advantage in a later round. The 4, 5 or 8th seed as a group I'd say are more likely to come out of the top half of the bracket than the 1 seed so getting the 2 or 3 seed is most likely the difference in home court advantage during the western conference finals.

 

[blue32]

We're just 3 wins from being guaranteed a winning record. After those stretches of being in the lottery I'll appreciate every year we have a winning record. So nice to think about playoff seeding instead of draft prospects.

I'm hoping we can put a little run together to challenge Memphis and Houston for the 2 and 3 seeds. I thought Houston would've lost more games when Dwight went out but they're still winning. Would be nice to possibly have home court advantage in a later round. The 4, 5 or 8th seed as a group I'd say are more likely to come out of the top half of the bracket than the 1 seed so getting the 2 or 3 seed is most likely the difference in home court advantage during the western conference finals.

Sir flops-a-lot is why they're still winning. Free points every trip down. smh

 

[Draco]

Both teams won again tonight. Both in overtime. The Thunder were at home and the Blazers on the road. The Blazers opponent, LA Clippers, is just a tad better than the 76ers.

If Portland finishes 14-9 (54-28), OKC has to go 21-0 (55-27)
If Portland finishes 13-10 (53-29), OKC has to go 20-1 (54-28)
If Portland finishes 12-11 (52-30), OKC has to go 19-2 (53-29)
If Portland finishes 11-12 (51-31), OKC has to go 18-3 (52-30)
If Portland finishes 10-13 (50-32), OKC has to go 17-4 (51-31)
If Portland finishes 9-14 (49-33), OKC has to go 16-5 (50-32)
If Portland finishes 8-15 (48-34), OKC has to go 15-6 (49-33)
If Portland finishes 7-16 (47-35), OKC has to go 14-7 (48-34)
If Portland finishes 6-17 (46-36), OKC has to go 13-8 (47-35)
If Portland finishes 5-18 (45-37), OKC has to go 12-9 (46-36)
If Portland finishes 4-19 (44-38), OKC has to go 11-10 (45-37)
If Portland finishes 3-20 (43-39), OKC has to go 10-11 (44-38)
If Portland finishes 2-21 (42-40), OKC has to go 9-12 (43-39)
If Portland finishes 1-22 (41-41), OKC has to go 8-13 (42-40)
If Portland finishes 0-23 (40-42), OKC has to go 7-14 (41-41)

 

[Strenuus]

Good lord, if we even go .500 they can only lose 2 games? It's getting better. Won't feel comftorable till it's official, but it's looking good.

 

[magnifier661]

Both teams won again tonight. Both in overtime. The Thunder were at home and the Blazers on the road. The Blazers opponent, LA Clippers, is just a tad better than the 76ers.

If Portland finishes 14-9 (54-28), OKC has to go 21-0 (55-27)
If Portland finishes 13-10 (53-29), OKC has to go 20-1 (54-28)
If Portland finishes 12-11 (52-30), OKC has to go 19-2 (53-29)
If Portland finishes 11-12 (51-31), OKC has to go 18-3 (52-30)
If Portland finishes 10-13 (50-32), OKC has to go 17-4 (51-31)
If Portland finishes 9-14 (49-33), OKC has to go 16-5 (50-32)
If Portland finishes 8-15 (48-34), OKC has to go 15-6 (49-33)
If Portland finishes 7-16 (47-35), OKC has to go 14-7 (48-34)
If Portland finishes 6-17 (46-36), OKC has to go 13-8 (47-35)
If Portland finishes 5-18 (45-37), OKC has to go 12-9 (46-36)
If Portland finishes 4-19 (44-38), OKC has to go 11-10 (45-37)
If Portland finishes 3-20 (43-39), OKC has to go 10-11 (44-38)
If Portland finishes 2-21 (42-40), OKC has to go 9-12 (43-39)
If Portland finishes 1-22 (41-41), OKC has to go 8-13 (42-40)
If Portland finishes 0-23 (40-42), OKC has to go 7-14 (41-41)

Guess we just need to win the next 15 straight and the division is ours

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I think we got this in the bag, my cap on thunder wins are 48.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

You know you all wanted an update on this...

If Portland finishes 10-10 (52-30), OKC has to go 18-0 (53-29)
If Portland finishes 9-11 (51-31), OKC has to go 17-1 (52-30)
If Portland finishes 8-12 (50-32), OKC has to go 16-2 (51-31)
If Portland finishes 7-13 (49-33), OKC has to go 15-3 (50-32)
If Portland finishes 6-14 (48-34), OKC has to go 14-4 (49-33)
If Portland finishes 5-15 (47-35), OKC has to go 13-5 (48-34)
If Portland finishes 4-16 (46-36), OKC has to go 12-6 (47-35)
If Portland finishes 3-17 (45-37), OKC has to go 11-7 (46-36)
If Portland finishes 2-18 (44-38), OKC has to go 10-8 (45-37)
If Portland finishes 1-19 (43-39), OKC has to go 9-9 (44-38)
If Portland finishes 0-20 (42-40), OKC has to go 8-10 (43-39)

Basically, the Blazers' "magic number" for winning the division is 11.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

10-10 or better? We got this!

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Looking at our schedule... 14-16 wins SHOULD be the goal.

 

[illmatic99]

Knock on wood, but the division is fairly locked up. The lowest we can drop to is the 4 seed (4 w/o HCA).

Now would be a good time to rest guys and get them healthy. I'm really coming around to the idea that HCA does not matter. We just need to win one of the first two road games in a series, and we're golden.

And I see matchups vs HOU/LAC/SAS as all the same. They will all be tough but manageable. Unless we have a shot at drawing DAL in the playoffs, we should worry more about getting healthy and practicing, while giving some bench guys like CJ/Gee/Leonard/Wright a real shot at gaining some confidence before the playoffs.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

Knock on wood, but the division is fairly locked up. The lowest we can drop to is the 4 seed (4 w/o HCA).

Now would be a good time to rest guys and get them healthy. I'm really coming around to the idea that HCA does not matter. We just need to win one of the first two road games in a series, and we're golden.

And I see matchups vs HOU/LAC/SAS as all the same. They will all be tough but manageable. Unless we have a shot at drawing DAL in the playoffs, we should worry more about getting healthy and practicing, while giving some bench guys like CJ/Gee/Leonard/Wright a real shot at gaining some confidence before the playoffs.

There's two teams I think the Blazers can beat in the first round, and thats Dallas and the Clippers. I'm fairly confident those two will be in the 6/7 slot, that is why its important to finish 2nd, or at worse 3rd. I'm about 90% sure Dallas finishes 7th, and 60% about Clippers finishing 6th.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

If we lose all 20...
We still have a winning season,
We still finish ahead of Denver, Sac, LAL, Minny, even if these teams win out.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I believe you should always play to win. So, I say we do everything we can to lock up the 3rd seed, or even try to pass MEM for the 2nd seed.

I feel very comfortable matching up with HOU, DAL or LAC (or even OKC, but they aren't going to get any higher than 8th and we're not going to catch GSW for the 1st seed) in the 1st round. Finishing 2nd or 3rd should get us matched up against one of those three - with HCA.

We beat HOU last year when they had a healthy Dwight and HCA. Losing Wes hurt as he did such a great job on Harden last year in the playoffs, but after watching Afflalo guard Harden on Wednesday night, I'm still confident we can beat them in a series.

DAL has too many old guys who don't seem to be meshing well. They can't keep up with our younger guys. The trades they made in attempt to strengthen their starting 5 haven't really helped, but they weakened their bench in the process. Amar'e has been scoring well off their bench, but he doesn't play defense or rebound well. Kaman can hang with him, no problem. They don't shoot the 3 exceptionally well, and are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the 3. Our defense ranks 1st in the league in allowing 3-pointers and 2nd in Opponent's 3FG%. DAL is dead last in 3-pointers allowed and 28th in Opponents 3FG%. That along is enough to tip this series in our favor.

LAC have a huge problem that's going to hurt them in the playoffs. They rely WAY to much on one player to defend the basket. DeAndre Jordan is very good at it, but late in games, because of his ridiculously poor FT shooting, he becomes a huge liability. The guy misses 6 of every 10 FTs during the regular season. You can just see it messing with his head when teams intentionally foul him for possession - and it's only going to get worse during the pressure cooker of the post season. So, either Doc has to live with Jordan bricking FTs or pull him and kill his team's interior defense. Lately, that's meant Spencer Hawes at the 5, and he's no rim protector. Most teams, when they have to pull their starting center for any reason (foul trouble, match up reasons, etc.) tend to go small and slide their starting power forward over to the center spot and play "small ball". SAS have done that forever with Duncan. He starts at the 4, but with the game on the line, he slides over to 5 and they go small with Manu off the bench. The Clippers don't have that luxury. Their starting 4, Blake Griffin, is not a paint protector that can effectively play the 5 spot. And, that's a huge advantage for us. Even without Wes, our small ball line up with Aldridge at the 5 is much better than their small ball line up. Surprisingly, they aren't all that great are guarding the 3-point line (26th in 3-pointers allowed), and in spite of having DeAndre Jordan, 27th in offensive rebounds. The Blazers are 4th in defensive rebounding. So, that should help limit their second chance points.

So yeah, give me the 2nd or 3rd seed against any of those 3 teams in the first round and let MEM, SAS and GSW battle it out on the other side of the bracket.

BNM

 

[-Ace-]

So our magic number for the division is currently 11. I like that.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Both Hollinger's Playoff Odds and Basketball-Reference Playoff Probability Report are currently projecting us to finish in a 3-way tie with MEM and LAC at 54 wins. For some reason, Basketball-Reference the lists us as the 2 seed. Wouldn't MEM hold the tie breaker over us in a 3-way tie?

Both also project the Rockets finishing one game back at 53 wins.

BNM

 

[H.C.]

Both Hollinger's Playoff Odds and Basketball-Reference Playoff Probability Report are currently projecting us to finish in a 3-way tie with MEM and LAC at 54 wins. For some reason, Basketball-Reference the lists us as the 2 seed. Wouldn't MEM hold the tie breaker over us in a 3-way tie?

Both also project the Rockets finishing one game back at 53 wins.

BNM

I think so yes, I might be wrong but I also think they're the only team in the West that have locked up the season series vs Portland.
Or wait.. have the T-Wolves also locked up the season series vs Portland? Ha, maybe.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Both Hollinger's Playoff Odds and Basketball-Reference Playoff Probability Report are currently projecting us to finish in a 3-way tie with MEM and LAC at 54 wins. For some reason, Basketball-Reference the lists us as the 2 seed. Wouldn't MEM hold the tie breaker over us in a 3-way tie?

Both also project the Rockets finishing one game back at 53 wins.

BNM

Yes. LA would lose out first because they're not a division winner, and then Memphis would surpass us via head to head.

 

[magnifier661]

Both Hollinger's Playoff Odds and Basketball-Reference Playoff Probability Report are currently projecting us to finish in a 3-way tie with MEM and LAC at 54 wins. For some reason, Basketball-Reference the lists us as the 2 seed. Wouldn't MEM hold the tie breaker over us in a 3-way tie?

Both also project the Rockets finishing one game back at 53 wins.

BNM

Yes Memphis would hold the tie breaker because they also won their division

 

[Boob-No-More]

Quick update on the playoff predictor bots...

After last night, Hollinger actually predicts us finishing ahead of MEM (55 wins for us, 54 for them) and taking the 2nd seed. Basketball-Reference, has us tied with MEM at 55 wins (actually 54.8 for us and 54.9 for them).

Of course, these are just predictions based on simulations, but we will need to win tonight to keep pace with MEM, both with the bots and in the real world. Basetball-Reference gives us a 53% chance of beating WAS tonight, but has MEM at 76% odds of beating DEN. Go Blazers! Go Nuggets!

BTW, Neil Olshey is a fucking genius. Not only did he get us a starting caliber SG in exchange for guys who weren't even in the rotation, one of those guys might actually help our playoff positioning more as a Nugget than he ever would have as a Blazer.

BNM

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Since the beginning of February, we're 12-4... 8 of those wins coming by 10 or more points. That's strong basketball.

 

[Further]

some people around here are getting overconfident regarding playoff match ups. Dallas may end up being cream puff, but that's it. Houston, OKC and the Clips are all going to be tough match ups over a series. Not that the Blazers can't win, but it's not going to be a cakewalk. Players like Chris Paul and Westbrook will give the Blazers fits in the Playoffs.

 

[magnifier661]

some people around here are getting overconfident regarding playoff match ups. Dallas may end up being cream puff, but that's it. Houston, OKC and the Clips are all going to be tough match ups over a series. Not that the Blazers can't win, but it's not going to be a cakewalk. Players like Chris Paul and Westbrook will give the Blazers fits in the Playoffs.

I don't think most fans believe any matchup in the western conference will be a cake walk. The suggestion of teams you want to face are probabilities of having the best chance to beat. So OKC, Clips, Houston and Dallas are the best teams to face in the first round. Not because they suck, but because we have the best chance of beating them in a 7 game series.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

No match in the West is going to be easy... including any matchup with us. I'm excited about the playoffs.

 

[Spud147]

Since the beginning of February, we're 12-4... 8 of those wins coming by 10 or more points. That's strong basketball.

I'm probably going to regret saying this (with the possibility of a jinx and all) but since the All Star break the Blazers have made their wins look easy. They've been playing really good teams and the way they are playing right now reminds me of the Spurs in the play offs last year. Teams can kind of hang with them for a while but the Blazer's lead just slowly builds until it's just too late to catch back up.

They're peaking at the exact right time and I don't see a bunch of other teams that are way better. This is looking a lot like the year Dallas won... I think a handful of teams could win it this year, including the Blazers. I'm more excited about the play offs than I have been in many years... I can't wait!!!!!

 

[Rhal]

I'm probably going to regret saying this (with the possibility of a jinx and all) but since the All Star break the Blazers have made their wins look easy. They've been playing really good teams and the way they are playing right now reminds me of the Spurs in the play offs last year. Teams can kind of hang with them for a while but the Blazer's lead just slowly builds until it's just too late to catch back up.

They're peaking at the exact right time and I don't see a bunch of other teams that are way better. This is looking a lot like the year Dallas won... I think a handful of teams could win it this year, including the Blazers. I'm more excited about the play offs than I have been in many years... I can't wait!!!!!

I dont want to make a big deal comparing us to the 2011 Dallas team but there is another almost shocking similarity. Dallas's third best player also went down for the year, Caron Butler, and everyone was also writing their playoff obituary long before the playoffs arrived.