Draft thoughts in light of recent events...

Ike Diogu had a great game today,so good Ariz St nearly beat Arizona. Diogu now has a very good perimeter shot,seems hit hit about every 3,also great D. S Stoudamire also looked good, looked faster than I thought. Only saw part of Taft's game and it was far better than yhe last I saw of him. Cincy's Jasom Maxiel,who's 6-7 looked way bigger. There was a 9 min stretch where Cincy allowed ZERO points. Pretty hot considering the JC I woprk at has a bigger front line

 

Are you sure Taft's inconsistency is due to his unselfishness rather than work ethic or complacency? I'd hate for the W's to waste a high draft pick if it's passing up a an athletic, fundamentally sound big man. You don't get many of those. If we do trade down I hope we're getting somebody we want in addition to the pick.

 

Taft seems to mainly play a post up game,but he isn't quite massive enough to do it on power,so focus and intensity-plus fundamentals,are pretty important. He's not lazy,but being a bit indeciscive gives a similar result. By comparison Bogut is bigger with better footwork and a nice J so it's hard to counter all he can do. I really find Taft hard to figure,especially as a center. undersize C's,6-9,6-10 need to be in great condition,quick with intensity and fundamentals-Ben Wallace,Amare,Alonzo Mourning in his prime,being good examples

 

Hmm... what about Warrick? The guy is kind of skinny, limited range, but lots of upside. I feel it's drafting a player we already have. He is a good ballhandler and seems to be fierce at both ends. He would definitely put a guy like Pietrus as the odd man out, though, unless Warrick is playing the 4 Tough decision. We need a center and you probably know Dunleavy will be retained no matter what, making Pietrus the odd man out, anyway. I don't really have an idea what Cohan is prepared to do with all these guaranteed salaries.

 

Also I saw where Jason Collins re-upped with the Nets,but Tyson Chandler is still possibly an FA. When I think of a trade down my view is we could turn our pick into a pair of midround 1's,maybe also other deals adding a high #2. I am impressed by I Diogu,Sheldon Williams,Wayne Simien,Danny Granger and Saleem Stoudamire. I like Warrick too but a trade down would,I assume mean he's taken. Round 2 has some possibilities. Some project Granger as a 2,or Stoudamire,which would be a steal. Point G's like Nate Robinson,Aaron Miles,can be good rd 2 finds. I'd hate to spend a high pick on a borderline C or a project who could take 3 yr to just be okay when there are some good players in the pool. If we have deep talent we may be in a position to deal later to get a big C

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">Hmm... what about Warrick? The guy is kind of skinny, limited range, but lots of upside. I feel it's drafting a player we already have. He is a good ballhandler and seems to be fierce at both ends. He would definitely put a guy like Pietrus as the odd man out, though, unless Warrick is playing the 4 Tough decision. We need a center and you probably know Dunleavy will be retained no matter what, making Pietrus the odd man out, anyway. I don't really have an idea what Cohan is prepared to do with all these guaranteed salaries.</div>
With no massive C,an uptempo style makes a lot of sense. Warrick seems super quick and excells and driving to the hoop,filling the lane etc. Pietrus' ability to play g+f could be a plus when the pace requires the bench to get a lot of minutes. After seeing Ike Diogu Saturday I raised my opinion of him, He was a beast on D,he hit 3's,he's quick enough and strong enough for either F role. Both guys are relentless in their style and I feel that will also reflect in the way they do all they can to improve their game. Warrick will likely develop decent range,because he's committed to winning. Eventually he may surpass Carmelo just by paying the price

 

New Mex beat Utah behind a stunning Danny Granger Performance. NM uses Granger in a rather unique role-as if he was playing all 5 positions. He often is their playmaker,as well as their shotblocker,top rebounder,inside threat and 3 pt specialist. Bogut played great-Granger had to more than match that or no NCAA for the Lobos. I saw a major mock draft list him as a round 2. Absurd. Granger will be one of the better picks in this draft,would be a good choice even as early as slot 10,but I think he can be had later around pick 20. I want to see if Ike Diogu and Sheldon williams declare and if so, would our #1 pick be about the right place. Williams is slightly bigger,Diogu is a bit quicker with a better perimeter shot.,Both are NBA ready,but getting dissed by some draft experts-though the march madness results ought to force some adjustments. I can not imagine anyone who saw Diogu,S Williams,or Granger lately would have any interest in Chris Taft.
Odds are slim we pingpong into pick-1 and Bogut,but it is a possibility. I'm mostly looking at a scenario where we pick from 5-8,which I'd hope becomes Sheldon W or Diogu. To gain a later # 1 or more,D Fisher and Dunleavy would tend to be bait. I'd hope to get Granger and Saleem Stoudamire,with,if we can't land Stoudamire,Aaron Miles,Kansas,an option in rd 2. With some real solid players to be had,if we don't get a Center,its okay. I would not get desperate and throw huge $ at Kwame Brown who has made no progress,but there may be a big low-end FA worth signing

 

I dunno I look at the consensus of various projected drafts and probably the reason guys fall into the second round, despite showing good performances, has a lot to do with the level of talent in their conferences and the amount of upside they have in their game. But you never know.

 

This seems like a fairly deep, but not necesarilly good draft class. The only player you can really be sure is going to have some kind of impact seems to be Bogut and possibly Paul if he can step up his defense like Hinrich has. There are going to be some good players coming from the draft, and some busts, and I'm not really sure it's worth risking a seasoned veteran like Fisher for a gamble on a late 1st round pick. I REALLY don't think any of them are worth an up and coming player like Dunleavy, either.

 

Saleem Stoudamire is the best 3 pt shooter I've seen in college,shoots a lot of 3's but makes over 50%,he's quick too. In 2 yrs Fish will have lost a step,but will still have a big contract-Stoudamire will be still on the rookie contract-much less,will have developed point g game and will be our best perimeter shooter. Contract issues also factor in with Dunleavy. NOBODY wants to re-sign at a reasonable salary-how much does dunleavy get?. Granger,right now,is equal to Dunleavy in pretty much any area,even is able to play some point, but over the next few years Granger's salary would be about 1/3 Dunleavy's and before long he'd also be a better player.

 

Rerem, all these guys you mention could very well end up being mediocre or cancerous role players in the NBA. I think Mullin will go for a balance of good upside, good attitude, and good skillset. I dunno if it's even worth risking Derek Fisher's intangibles (leadership, good work ethic, good lockerroom presence) for guy that's a questionable late first rounder or 2nd rounder that posesses a volatile personality. This is what's questionable: The few things scouts sometimes leave out about Salim Stoudamire is his attitude on and off the court. He's known as a complainer and he's not a leader. Plus, Fisher, believe it or not, has a higher skillset when it comes to dribbling and passing. The knock on Fisher is that he's too slow, doesn't have great vision and can't penetrate so he shoots jumpers, but he did finish second to Baron Davis in the skills challenge on allstar weekend. You might not believe it, but Fish is a pretty accurate passer when he makes the right decisions and he's got 25 more lbs on Stoudamire. Plus Fish is still learning Montgomery's system and I think it's a matter of the people on the floor trying to get open in order for Fisher to be successful. I get pissed off when Fisher doesn't distribute, but I respect him as a player for what he's accomplished. Stoudamire, on the other hand, might end up being worse than Eddie House with Nick Van Exel's talent every other game, but also Nick Van Exel's poor attitude when things aren't going well. I'd think Mullin would want to use a first rounder that could help the team and also would be attractive to other teams. Plus, with our roster so young, we don't need the immature types. We need leaders and great individuals who have been in big game situations, that over the course of the season, can help a team come together rather than apart.

 

The biggest question I still have about this draft is where are the minutes going to come for a young rookie to develop?

Players on the bench have struggled to find playing time this year, even though it's a losing season.

Next year, with all the heightened expectations and pressure given the moves and contracts made by Mullin and it's hard to see any rookie getting much playing time.

That's why I still feel that outside of a big man like Bogut, or maybe Shelden Williams - though with Wiliams the Warriors would probably have to trade down to take him - I don't see where a player is going to get minutes...unless, and this is a big caveat, there is some move made by Mullin.

Therefore, given the current situation I think the best option might be to either trade up - and take Bogut, who can come in and play - or take the best available player like Marvin Williams or Rudy Gay - if either come out - and let them have a year or two to mature on the bench and in practice, or take the best available big man - be it Andriuskivicius, Petro, Splitter, Vazquez, etc. - and the keep them overseas for a year or two to develop - physically, mentally, and in their games - by getting into real games and then bring them over to go with Biedrins.

In other words, other than Bogut, this draft looks to be primarily about potential.

The one thing about the Warriors is they should be high enough to where they can give a solid - probably top 5 - GUARANTEE to a top notch player if Mullin sees someone that he really likes. Given the rumored changes to the draft in the future it might be enough for a young player to go into the draft when he might otherwise wait until next year.

 

In the past 2 weeks I have seen Diogu play,Granger-twice,and Sheldon Williams 3 times. I have also seen Marvin Williams 3 times. Diogu,S Williams and Granger can be starters right away,all have very nice skills,fundamentals,all are well above average rebounders and defenders,each has the maturity and class to be in shape and play to the max. The Baron deal may wind up costing the W's a draft slot or 2,as they are playing better. If I am picking #6#7,or #5,I'd be okay with taking one of those 3 guys. I'd freak if we took Marvin. What I have seen is a player who lacks the desire and motivation to become the player his raw tools seem to say he might be. As is,playing in the ACC tournament,on TV,failed to stimulate Marvin into much effort on D or any inside game. A guy like Diogu would score 30 on Marvin every time,as would Granger. Rudy Gay at least is working to become a player and,with luck he might eventually be as good as Granger. As for Ptro etc-hell,why not take Luke Schenser if a lanky 7ft guy is so vital? What the hell have Petro,Martynas A. done? Nothin. To be anything,they need to add strength,and a lot of guys,when they bulk up become a lot slower. I wonder why any of us would expect Petro to develop a 10ft J or decent hands when we all fuss that Adonal still has not-and nobody works harder than Adonal. I think its nuts to spend an early pick on a guy who,as-is,could not start for a good college team.

 

I am totally focused on those players who I have seen as the LEAST LIKELY to become"mediocre role players or cancerous". Diogu,Granger,S Williams are not arrogant,selfish,lazy,dumb or any of that. You can easily see the team attitude and charachter in how they play,how they are with teammates. Stoudamire is a bit like Arenas in that he's a fighter by nature. He's no gangbanger,loafer etc,and,when its a pick around the end of round 1 or early #2,a very mild risk isn't a problem. I like the Idea that such a good pure shooter can be had cheap in a draft where teams seem eager to spend high picks on the next Zarko.....Hasn't anyone seen these guys play?

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">In the past 2 weeks I have seen Diogu play,Granger-twice,and Sheldon Williams 3 times. I have also seen Marvin Williams 3 times. Diogu,S Williams and Granger can be starters right away,all have very nice skills,fundamentals,all are well above average rebounders and defenders,each has the maturity and class to be in shape and play to the max. The Baron deal may wind up costing the W's a draft slot or 2,as they are playing better. If I am picking #6#7,or #5,I'd be okay with taking one of those 3 guys. I'd freak if we took Marvin. What I have seen is a player who lacks the desire and motivation to become the player his raw tools seem to say he might be. As is,playing in the ACC tournament,on TV,failed to stimulate Marvin into much effort on D or any inside game. A guy like Diogu would score 30 on Marvin every time,as would Granger. Rudy Gay at least is working to become a player and,with luck he might eventually be as good as Granger. As for Ptro etc-hell,why not take Luke Schenser if a lanky 7ft guy is so vital? What the hell have Petro,Martynas A. done? Nothin. To be anything,they need to add strength,and a lot of guys,when they bulk up become a lot slower. I wonder why any of us would expect Petro to develop a 10ft J or decent hands when we all fuss that Adonal still has not-and nobody works harder than Adonal. I think its nuts to spend an early pick on a guy who,as-is,could not start for a good college team.</div>

First of all, I specifically stated that the Warriors do not need someone who can start right away. They already have 1-4 locked up with Davis, JRich, Dunleavy and Murphy...and Biedrins is going to be the starting center before anyone in this draft (outside of Bogut). There's no room on the roster for a starter right now. There's not even that much room on the bench.

Therefore, what does it matter if Granger can start right away if he isn't going to. He won't be seeing much time next year, or maybe even the year after that. Montgomery and Mullin want this team to win starting next year...that means a limited bench.

Why draft someone who is better right now when they aren't even going to get much time for at least one or two years in the league?

I want the better player in two years (and ultimately in five years) ...and that means drafting a player on potential and either developing on the bench or overseas.

And guys like Diogu and Shelden Williams at 6'8 and 6'9, are undersized. It's the same problem with Wayne Simien...no matter how good they are on the college level.

Shelden Wiliams has a huge frame so perhaps he can still play center...but his size limits his overall potential.

Now, I've liked what I've read about Rudy Gay...sounds like a potential top-notch defender with great athleticism and good offensive skill set. He could turn out to be the best player of his class. If Marvin Williams lacks the internal drive, then by all means the Warriors should pass him up.

As far as Luke Schensher...he doesn't possess the coordination, athleticism, or overall potential, as Andriuskivicius. Schensher's a backup center on any good team. Andriuskivicius is reported to be a more athletic Ilgauskaus. That's worth looking into.

Petro is supposed to be huge and athletic...but very limited offensively and some questions about his motivation. Again, I am not in a position to know everything about these players...all the information available is second or third hand, at best.

But before we start completely dismissing all the reports of international prospects...let's remember Biedrins had a lot written about him and he's at least shown that he was worthy of some of that hype. Nenad Krstic has been a similar revelation in New Jersey this year, as has Primoz Brezec in Charlotte. It's not like they are all 7-foot stiffs. As for Biedrins....I think he can play power forward, and his athleticism might be better utilized in that position...therefore, I'd like the Warriors to look for another long term center...and some of the best prospects are from overseas.

And again, drafting an international player allows the team to leave him in Europe and actually play against good competition, instead of remaining on the bench for most of the year. It also delays any salary hit on the team...which has a lot of money wrapped up in a lot of players right now.

 

When I say a guy can start now,that does not say he must start now. Rather I'm saying he won't be a guy like Rodney White who 3 years later is still not good enough to start and needing to prove he's good enough to be in the NBA. Schenser was a starter who got a double-double yesterday when G-Tech beat NORTH CAROLINA- Martynas A IS a backup to Tanoka Beard in Lithuania. Tanoka Beard was an American College player a few years back,don't recall the school,but Beard was not seen as a serious pro prospect. Beard is averaging 19pt over there in the minors,Martynas averages just under 5 pt. IN THEORY Martynas---or Tshikavili-or Darko Milicek or Shawn Bradley---will benefit greatly once on an NBA roster,with a mega $ deal.

 

My 2 cents about draft... (and hopefuly not many bad english mistakes )

Let me first say that the only prospect i have seen play is Martynas Andriuskevicius (in his very limited time, ~10min per game).

From what i have read i have high hopes for Warrick. Some people think he can't play 3 in NBA, other say he will be elite defending 3 with ability to post-up smaller 3's. I have read (and seen from pictures) he has superb athleticism with long arms and great college stats. In his rookie year (when he can hopefuly develope some ballhandling skills and extend his range) he might be great backup for Dunleavy and Murphy - is it worth a 4th-5th pick?

Warriors greatest need is center. i doubt we will pick pg's Paul or Felton (even if they are BPA). I doubt we get Bogut, that leaves Taft, Splitter and maybe Villanueva. Yesterday Splitter had great game - 21pts, 6rebs, 2as, 2st, 2blks in 26min. If he plays good in Euroleague i'm sure his stocks will rise. Splitter plays PF in Europe and i somehow think he might be similar to Biedrins meaning he needs some time to adjust and develope. We need center who can give us 20min good playing time and be a impact player from first day like we hope Taft would be, and i doubt Splitter would be that player. I think good benchmark for Splitter in his rookie season would be Cavs Varejao, although he (Varejao) is smaller and older he produced exactly identical numbers in very similar team in same leagues (Spanish ACB and Euroleague). Is it good enough for 4th-5th pick? I hope i can see him play in TV soon.

If i would be Mullin i would try to set up Splitter vs. Taft workout to see how they compete (and measure) against each other.

 

i found this little video clip about Splitter
http://acb.com/redaccion.php?id=21920

 

Rerem - Rodney White is a great example of why I don't completely agree with you. He was a great college player who had all of the offensive tools and enough athleticism to make him seem like a good defender. In short, I see a lot of similarities between his college game and Granger's.

When White got to the NBA, he crumpled under the tougher defense. Now he has become a streaky shooter who can't play defense and hardly rebounds. I'm not saying that Granger will necessarily go down the same road, I hope he won't, but who can say that he absolutely will be a starting caliber player when he reaches the NBA?


Endym - Thanks for the clip. I was anxious to see some footage of Splitter playing. I'm not sure I liked what I saw, though. From the descriptions I've heard and from that clip, it looks like he could be another Zarko Carbarkapa. I like Zarko, but we don't need 2 of him (sorry Skitiz). I'd be anxious to see him playing defense, rebounding, or scoring with his back to the basket before I were to jump on his bandwagon.

 

Did you see Granger a couple of days ago against Utah,or Ike Diogu last week against Arizona? R White never played at that level. Diogu,Sheldon Williams,and Granger are guys who play with skills,brains and nads. Any one of them would become our best defensive F pretty quick. They all are around 10 rbd per game. Reality is that if you suck enough to miss the playoffs over 10 yrs straight you DO need quality players,overachievers,guys who WILL deliver as opposed to fishing for someone who could be good someday---if. The Warriors have made some dreadful,awful moves over the years in the neverending quest for a true C. The best hope is to develop plenty of talent and deal from a position of strength. I mentioned Schenser who is7-1 and a likely rd 2 pick. Is he worse than Darko? Is he worse than Johan Petro? How about Kwame Brown? I would not want to spend a lottery pick on a big man and find out he is no better than Schenser. By the way-it is good to hear Splitter is able to score 20 +,of the mystery imports he may be the legit top 10 pick...but I'd still much prefer Diogu. I assume we all saw Duke-NC last week when Sheldon Williams 3TIMES rejected Marvin Williams at the rim...nuff said