Drew Brees to Phins?

Discussion in 'AFC East' started by Uptown, Mar 10, 2006.

  1. Uptown

    Uptown NFLC nflcentral.net Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>ESPN Insiders Article...http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/col...%26id%3d2362347Dolphins shouldn't jump at BreesThe Miami Dolphins ended the 2005 season on a six-game winning streak and are viewed by many as being only a player or two away from becoming a strong playoff contender. One of those players most certainly will be a quarterback, and one of the quarterbacks the Dolphins reportedly have a strong interest in is Drew Brees.Brees' 2005 standard passing statistics compare quite favorably with the Dolphins' combination of Gus Frerotte and Sage Rosenfels. Brees completed 64.6 percent of his passes and posted a rating of 89.2, averaging 7.15 yards per passing attempt. Frerotte and Rosenfels combined to complete 52.3 percent of their passes for a rating of 72.8, averaging 6.22 yards per attempt.These numbers certainly suggest that Brees would be a considerable upgrade for Miami, but how does Brees measure up in a passing metrics analysis?First, let's take a look at the metrics for Brees for the 2005 season (excluding his Week 17 against the Broncos when he was knocked out with an injury):These are certainly very solid metrics. It has been said that Brees has trouble throwing deep passes, but he completed 46 percent of his deep passes in 2005. This percentage wasn't an anomaly, as Brees also completed 42 percent of his deep passes in 2004. To put that percentage in perspective, Brees finished the 2004 season with the fifth highest deep-pass completion percentage in the league, and I expect him to finish at least that high in 2005.Now let's compare these numbers against the Dolphins' tandem:The first thing to notice about this comparison is the similarity in the short and medium pass numbers. The attempt and completion totals are nearly identical in some cases, and the other numbers are also extremely close.Brees did toss 11 interceptions in short or medium passing attempts, while Frerotte and Rosenfels combined for eight, but the Dolphins' duo had three other interceptions on passes that were either tipped by opposing linemen at the line of scrimmage or thrown as the quarterback was being hit by a defender. Since the depth of these passes isn't clear, I put them in a separate category. If those three interceptions were included in the short and medium pass comparison, the Dolphins' total would equal that of Brees.The deep-pass category is where the Dolphins struggled last year. Rosenfels and Frerotte attempted 28 more deep passes than Brees yet had six fewer completions. Frerotte and Rosenfels completed only 26 percent of their deep-passing attempts, a number that will place them near the bottom of the league for 2005.The one aspect of the comparison that surprised me was the inaccurate pass metric. On each passing attempt, I track whether the quarterback threw an accurate or inaccurate pass. When an inaccurate pass leads to an incompletion , I track the number of yards the play would have gained if the receiver had caught the pass at that point (I don't factor in any potential yards after catch). This includes inaccurate passes that were dropped, and inaccurate passes that were so far off the mark the receiver had no chance to catch the pass.The Dolphins' quarterbacks were widely criticized for being extremely inaccurate last season (especially Frerotte). When I ran a metric comparison, I found the difference wasn't as great as expected, largely because Brees had accuracy issues of his own.Brees had 38 total inaccurate passes that cost his team yards (15 were dropped and 23 were simply off the mark). These passes would have gained a combined 422 yards.The Dolphins' quarterback duo had 66 total inaccurate passes (28 were dropped and 38 were off the mark). These passes cost the Dolphins a total of 597 yards.The Dolphins certainly want to upgrade their quarterback position, but the difference between Brees and the Dolphins' current stable of quarterbacks isn't as great as it might seem. Their short and medium metrics are almost identical. Brees is certainly more accurate, but the Dolphins only lost 175 more yards on inaccurate passes last year. Brees had a much higher quarterback rating, but a lot of that was due to the Dolphins' heavy reliance on the deep passing game.The real question for the Dolphins is how much they want to pay for Brees, who is coming off major shoulder surgery and might improve their team only incrementally. If the price is too high, the Dolphins might do better investing in other areas of the team.KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He has a Web site at http://thefootballscientist.com.</div>
     
  2. The Marine

    The Marine BBW Member

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    I think they will sign him, i can just see it happening, but maybe im wrong
     
  3. NFLCMS2

    NFLCMS2 NFLC nflcentral.net Member

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    I hope they sign him cuz Gus sucks and i like the Phins cuz Zach Thomas is my favorite LB !! And Brees to Chambers what a combination !!
     
  4. BigMike23

    BigMike23 NFLC nflcentral.net Member

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  5. NFLCMS2

    NFLCMS2 NFLC nflcentral.net Member

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    MIAMI (March 12, 2006) -- Free-agent quarterback Drew Brees showed good mobility, completing a visit with the Saints in New Orleans and then flying to Miami to talk with Dolphins officials on March 12. The meetings were confirmed by Brees' agent, Tom Condon. He declined to characterize negotiations but said a deal was unlikely before March 13 at the earliest, with Brees planning to remain in Miami overnight. "I'm not going to talk to the Dolphins until (Monday)," Condon said. They might be a chance that they will make a deal late on Monday night on early on Tuesday evening.
     
  6. Uptown

    Uptown NFLC nflcentral.net Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Sources close to the Dolphins tell me that by the time the clock strikes midnight tonight the Dolphins will have a new QB in place. After pulling a playground move and cutting in front of the line yesterday by having Nick Saban board the owners jet to meet Drew Brees before he left for New Orleans the Dolphins have turned their attention to Daunte Cullpeper. 5 hours of dialogues with the Vikings and 3 hours with Drew Brees and the Dolphins feel as if they will have their man today. Just not sure what man it is.</div>
     
  7. NFLCMS2

    NFLCMS2 NFLC nflcentral.net Member

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    Maybe he will be signed sooner than i thought or some changed there mind.
     
  8. AdropOFvenom

    AdropOFvenom BBW Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Dolphins | Brees reportedly prefers MiamiTue, 14 Mar 2006 06:07:28 -0800Jason Cole, of the Miami Herald, reports sources indicated that free agent QB Drew Brees (Chargers) preferred the Miami Dolphins over the New Orleans Saints even though the Saints made a more lucrative offer when he visited them Saturday, March 11, and Sunday, March 12.</div>Well see.....It doesnt sound like the Dolphins are willing to spend the big bucks for him.
     
  9. AdropOFvenom

    AdropOFvenom BBW Member

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    Dolphins and Brees UNABLE to reach agreement.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>According to a source, the Dolphins reached a contract impasse with free-agent quarterback Drew Brees, but no matter who the quarterback will be in 2006 at least they'll have a new bodyguard to protect him.The Dolphins wasted no time in finding a replacement for recently released left tackle Damion McIntosh, as they signed free-agent L.J. Shelton. ESPN.com reported that the 6-foot-6, 341-pound Shelton agreed to a four-year, $15 million contract that included a $3.5 million signing bonus.After three consecutive days of negotiations, the Dolphins and Brees were unable to reach an agreement as the source said that the 2004 Pro Bowl quarterback and his agent Tom Condon were "asking for too much." The source added that Brees flew back to Birmingham, Ala., Monday night and could possibly decide between the Saints and Dolphins later that evening.The Dolphins are apparently having reservations about giving him too much guaranteed money because of the his serious shoulder injury sustained in the 2005 season finale.Several published reports have indicated that if the Dolphins don't land Brees they would turn to disgruntled Vikings three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Daunte Culpepper, who fell out of favor in Minnesota before he injured his right knee on Oct. 30 against the Panthers.The Dolphins would most likely have to surrender a draft pick to acquire Culpepper, who starred at University of Central Florida and grew up in Ocala, unless the Vikings release him rather than pay a $6 million roster bonus on March 25.However, several sources have indicated that the Dolphins are in hot pursuit of Falcons quarterback Matt Schaub, the 6-5 backup to Michael Vick. Schaub, who's in the final year of his three-year rookie $1.85 million contract, has started two games in two seasons.The former third-round pick out of Virginia drew rave reviews when he started the fifth game of this past season and completed 18 of 34 passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 31-28 loss to the then-defending world champion Patriots."There's been phone calls but nothing that has made us reconsider where we are, at least at this point," Falcons General Manager Rich McKay told the Atlanta-Journal Constitution. "We like the player, and he plays a very important position. From our position what it would take would have to be very strong."A source said the Falcons have received inquiries from several teams this offseason for Schaub, but it would take "a high pick" to possibly get him.</div>
     
  10. NFLCCombs

    NFLCCombs NFLC Root *****

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    That was probably the worst and most pointless article i've ever read.
     

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