<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">As I generally think was true of most NBA statistics types, when I first saw that Isiah Thomas had agreed to send Mike Sweetney to the Chicago Bulls as part of a three-player (and multi-pick) package that brought restricted free agent Eddy Curry to New York in a sign-and-trade deal made official yesterday, I initially judged the deal a coup for the Bulls. For a while now, I've been touting Sweetney as a future star. Here's what I wrote about him last summer for the best NBA blog around, KnickerBlogger.net: "Want some incredibly exciting news, Knicks fans? Here are Sweetney?s best age-21 comparables. Number one? Zach Randolph. Number two? Carlos Boozer. If I?m running the Knicks, I do whatever I can to ensure that Sweetney is playing at least 30 minutes per game next season, and let the results speak for themselves. Most Improved Player isn?t a bad guess, and I?ll pick Sweetney so long as a path is cleared for him to start." It wasn't a great year for undersized young power forwards, was it? While Randolph was injured and Boozer was injured and dealing with trade rumors, Sweetney had a solid but unspectacular second season in New York. He started for the Knicks after the trade deadline, averaging 9.1 points and 6.1 rebounds in that role but seeing only 22.5 minutes of action per game. Sweetney is still three weeks shy of his 23rd birthday, while Curry won't reach that age until December. Besides making me feel older than I should, this means both players have most of their careers in front of them. How can we make educated guesses at how they will develop? One way is what I alluded to in the earlier Sweetney comment I quoted - similarity scores. After seeing how useful similarity scores have been to projecting player development in baseball, notably Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, I pulled together my own version a couple of years ago. (John Hollinger of ESPN.com fame and Basketball-Reference.com have similar systems.) Explaining how the system works is beyond the scope of this column (I went into more detail here), but suffice it to say players are rated compared to league average and standard deviation for that particular season in nine statistical categories - a 'shooting' rating which combines 3-pointers and free throws; two-point percentage; rebounds per minute; possessions per minute; a 'pass' rating; blocks per minute; inside play (using threes and free throws again); minutes per game and overall efficiency. Also included are the player's height and weight because, more than overall ability, I'm looking to rate how the player plays, hoping this reveals development trends.</div> 82games.com
Well, Sweetney has proven to develop good rebounding and scoring in the post, while Curry does lack some tough defending in his game.
