That ridiculous article that suggested Ellis was up for S&T got me thinking. What is Ellis' value on the open market? Everyone knows how I feel about 2 guards. I think they're easily replaceable. (not that I want to dump Ellis by any means). I just started thinking, what could we get for him in a S&T if that's even possible. Kwan, CR2, etc... what do you think?
Well since I'm considered etc... I'll drop my 2 cents. He's worth a lot in my mind. Not max money, but he'll be a very good player. A star for sure. He bring instant offense to any team, even being undersized for a SG, he's incredibly strong. To S&T him, I think isn't a very smart idea unless you get a good SG in return and a draft pick.
I'm not sure, cH... maybe more future draft picks or big man that had an off year due to something? I think Ellis could definitely be swapped for a star player. Maybe not a big man, but some big men. Brand would be a nice target. If we're looking for shooters, I like Michael Redd, it's a just a matter of putting defensive players around him so he'll get more motivated to play D. I like Al Horford. I used to like Emeka Okafor, but him and Biedrins together might be complicated... I doubt the Hawks would give up Horford, Josh Smith, so maybe we could turn it into something like Marvin Williams + Josh Childress who are solid, but not star level like Ellis. I just don't know how hard it would be to get an established big man that scores, rebounds, and plays defense like Brand for a guy like Monta Ellis. I believe guys who start inside and out and control the paint are more valuable than your average star guard, although guards are very important in setting the table and setting the tone from the perimeter. So maybe if we looked at a trade that involved a guard for a bigger guard or swingman, it might work in our favor. For instance, Michael Redd and at least one other Buck player it might be worth it in some respects. I think Monta Ellis has more potential to change the game all-around than Redd, but maybe Bucks fans think otherwise. PG: Baron Davis SG: Michael Redd/Marco SF: Stephen Jackson/Redd PF: Brandan Wright/Jackson C: Andris Biedrins The thing I don't like is Michael Redd was never known for his unselfishness. What I do like is he's one of the best shooters in the league who can also slash. He's got the capability to play defense, but effort is a big question mark. Plus, price tag is questionable. Still, Redd is a top shooter in the league. He'll take a lot of 3's, but he'll also work his way to the line just as much... which is better than guys who chuck and don't wear down the defense by taking it inside or getting defenders up in the air. Redd's play would probably leave very few shots for everyone else unless he learns to be more unselfish. He's not a blackhole per say, but he can definitely blur his intended role as a shooting guard unless Sjax comes in and performs that role. Josh Howard is also a player that might seem like a nice fit and he's improving all the time with defense as his bread and butter. He's more forward-like, but it makes Sjax that much more valuable since Sjax is an oversized shooting guard. PG: Baron Davis SG: Josh Howard/Marco SF: Stephen Jackson/Howard PF: Brandan Wright/Jackson C: Andris Biedrins Sounds like a nice defensive team on paper, but one has to wonder (like Michael Redd) if the chemistry is there. The team sounds like it has nice rebounding potential, though. It could also run the floor pretty well. That lineup is probably the biggest in size that we've seen in years if Nelly doesn't opt to replace Wright with another small forward. And for any other trades... it's anyone's guess. Maybe swap Rudy Gay for Ellis. Rudy G is definitely unique and very all-around, but consistency wise I think Ellis still rules. It's just hard though because Ellis seems to be the most consistent player out of any warrior and a lot of players that I think teams would give up, so it's like he's in between the value of some big men and past the value of some volume scorers who don't shoot that consistently or at high %'s. If a guy shoots a consistent 43% game average that's great. But if he's a volume shooter up and down and all over the place, then obviously Ellis is more valuable than that guy no matter what his offensive contributions are. At least in my opinion. I think it's the difference between Antoine Walker and an Antwan Jamison or a Jerry Stackhouse and a Jrich. No team really gives up consistent and efficient production unless they're trying to get more of something else. And i hope for consistency and %'s sake, that the player at least has the right timing and gives up the ball. So I guess maybe Antoine Walker and Stackhouse criticisms are unfair because they do a good job of either rebounding or passing or both. That's something to their star power, but I think the goal in a S and T for Ellis would be to find a player that improves the current team. No team is going to give up a franchise guy to build around. If we s & t Ellis, it pressures the team to retain Baron, find a strong shooting guard, an develop the big men or acquire one somehow. Hopefully, if that situation ever happened, we'd find this guy who can anchor down something like free throw shooting. It would put more pressure on the opposing team's defense and with early foul trouble, we'd be playing their team's bench players who in theory would not be as good as playing the first unit. Such a player might even open offense for other players since some guys don't want to pick up the foul.
I don't know whether you mean what his value is as far as re-signing him or how much he could net if we were to trade him so I'll answer both. IMO right now hes probably worth 8 million a year but based on what players like Kevin Martin and Devin Harris got and the fact that Monta is still very, very young, he'll more than likely cost us 10-11 mils/year. I've heard a lot of people saying hes not worth really investing the franchise in because hes a combo guard but I don't necessarily agree with this. Look at the other comparable guards in the league, guys who have amazing finishing ability and tremendous athletic gifts; Dwayne Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Allen Iverson, Tony Parker, etc. Obviously Monta isn't as good as those guys yet but hes got the tools, finishing ability, hes shown a ton of improvement, and hes still young. Monta appears to be a higher FG% guy than them as well. Monta probably isn't a guy you want to build contending teams around but he could certainly be an excellent #2 guy, maybe Wright develops into a franchise player and Monta is the #2 guy? Theres no reason to let him go right now just because hes a combo guard. As for what he could net in a trade, its really hard to say. I think a lot of GMs wouldn't offer much for him because hes a combo guard. I think a lot of GMs are enamored with him though because he is such a force on the fast break (rivaled only be LeBron James in fast break points), he can get to the rim at will, hes a high FG% guard, good attitude, potential face of the franchise, etc. It would take a lot to convince me to trade him. It would have to be for a 20/10 young big man or another young guard of similar production and potential.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Run BJM @ Jun 3 2008, 02:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I don't know whether you mean what his value is as far as re-signing him or how much he could net if we were to trade him so I'll answer both. IMO right now hes probably worth 8 million a year but based on what players like Kevin Martin and Devin Harris got and the fact that Monta is still very, very young, he'll more than likely cost us 10-11 mils/year. I've heard a lot of people saying hes not worth really investing the franchise in because hes a combo guard but I don't necessarily agree with this. Look at the other comparable guards in the league, guys who have amazing finishing ability and tremendous athletic gifts; Dwayne Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Allen Iverson, Tony Parker, etc. Obviously Monta isn't as good as those guys yet but hes got the tools, finishing ability, hes shown a ton of improvement, and hes still young. Monta appears to be a higher FG% guy than them as well. Monta probably isn't a guy you want to build contending teams around but he could certainly be an excellent #2 guy, maybe Wright develops into a franchise player and Monta is the #2 guy? Theres no reason to let him go right now just because hes a combo guard. As for what he could net in a trade, its really hard to say. I think a lot of GMs wouldn't offer much for him because hes a combo guard. I think a lot of GMs are enamored with him though because he is such a force on the fast break (rivaled only be LeBron James in fast break points), he can get to the rim at will, hes a high FG% guard, good attitude, potential face of the franchise, etc. It would take a lot to convince me to trade him. It would have to be for a 20/10 young big man or another young guard of similar production and potential.</div> Excellent points. I also think Ellis' midrange pullup jumpshot is money as is his sense of feel for the game. I think warriors television analyst, Jim Barnett, really like the fact that Ellis can sense where defenses are and where the hoop is. So using his quickness/coordination he can carve his way to the basket and make these tricky shots almost without really looking. He's perhaps already one of the best undersized/underweight finishers in the league and that is key to playing high %'s (even if you took away transition points he's still great because he can at least shoot the high school 3 pointer accurately). And if he can't get all the way to the rim, he can slash and pull up on a dime where defenders can't react in time. This poses a huge problem for defenders because Ellis has the offensive advantage of making the first move and he's elite level quick and he has great control pulling up for a quick shot at any time. Imagine if he starts adding more pump fakes and increases his level of play through double teams. We'd be talking a guy that can affect the defense in the way that big stars do (they draw double teams, they split them, and they work the foul line to soften the D up). He's also got defensive potential, he just needs to play some point guard and learn how to anticipate those screens. Offensively, he's got the natural mind for it as well as the skill. Plus have you seen most guards that light weight that are naturally strong? He's pretty gifted and his looks fooled a lot of people.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Custodianrules2 @ Jun 3 2008, 02:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Excellent points. I also think Ellis' midrange pullup jumpshot is money as is his sense of feel for the game. I think warriors television analyst, Jim Barnett, really like the fact that Ellis can sense where defenses are and where the hoop is. So using his quickness/coordination he can carve his way to the basket and make these tricky shots almost without really looking. He's perhaps already one of the best undersized/underweight finishers in the league and that is key to playing high %'s (even if you took away transition points he's still great because he can at least shoot the high school 3 pointer accurately). And if he can't get all the way to the rim, he can slash and pull up on a dime where defenders can't react in time. This poses a huge problem for defenders because Ellis has the offensive advantage of making the first move and he's elite level quick and he has great control pulling up for a quick shot at any time. Imagine if he starts adding more pump fakes and increases his level of play through double teams. We'd be talking a guy that can affect the defense in the way that big stars do (they draw double teams, they split them, and they work the foul line to soften the D up). He's also got defensive potential, he just needs to play some point guard and learn how to anticipate those screens. Offensively, he's got the natural mind for it as well as the skill. Plus have you seen most guards that light weight that are naturally strong? He's pretty gifted and his looks fooled a lot of people.</div> Yeah, the thing with Monta is that even though hes 6'3 and <200 lbs is that his production is more like that of a 6'7 SG. 50+% shooting, unstoppable getting to the rim and finishing like a LeBron, Kobe, etc. his rebounding is great, and he gets a lot of steals. The general connotations that come with a combo guard are high volume, low % shooters, don't play team ball well, don't play defense, don't rebound, selfish, etc. I think the only one of those that Monta really fits into is poor defense which he can improve on. Obviously his passing isn't great but just over the course of the 07-08 season he showed tremendous improvement in decision making especially in learning when to pass and when to shoot, finding guys off of dribble penetration, etc. IMO its not unrealistic to believe that Monta could have a Tony Parker-esque PG game- lots of getting to the rim, lots of mid-range jumpers, not a lot of 3's, can't put on a passing clinic but he makes good decisions and works the pick and roll well. Monta's handle still needs some work but hes lucky to have such amazing speed that defenders don't gamble for steals on him often.
I don't know which article you are mentioning, but the only way we are even thinking about S&T is if Monta demands a max money, and Mullin refuses to sign that contract. Otherwise, I just don't see any possibility, and I have hard time thinking that any other teams will throw max money at him either. Currently, I believe Monta's value is around 10-14 mils per year. If we can sign Monta for less than 10 mils, Mullin did a superb job, and if we pay him more than 12 mils per year, we are overpaying him. Because Monta had very good season, I am hoping for Martin type of the contract, and I don't expect anything less than 10 mils per year. One thing I am really worried about him is that teams like Griz may step up and give Monta max type of money. Griz is a bad team, and in order for them to attract a good FA, they have to overpay him anyway. In that case, I have no idea what we should do. Biedrins might get little less than what Monta may get, but I also don't expect him to get anything less than 10 mils per year. Maybe 9...
Kwan, I think those numbers sound on target. Kevin Martin/Monta Ellis sounds like a good comparison in terms of scoring and upside. Memphis used to scare me as a cap room team that's also closer to Ellis' home, but now I don't know considering how deep this draft is with small guards and they've already chose a point guard last year who should be pretty decent. It might not even be worth it for Memphis to gamble on a combo guard when there's plenty in this upcoming draft and several good big men that could fall or would be available to #5. Memphis could trade up and try to pick Rose if Chicago/Miami wants somebody else further down the draft order. Minny always seems to pass up guys they should have taken so it might make teams down the draft order really lucky. Miami needs to find a strong big man because they weren't the same team once their bigs got all injured or too old. The strongest competition for drafting guards probably comes from Seattle who probably has mixed reviews with their current point guard lineup. But they might opt to take a big man if either Love or Brook Lopez is available. Memphis could try to make an offer at Ellis and then try drafting either Love or Lopez who should be around. That part scares me. Then they'd have lots of potential on their side with PG: Mike Conley/Monta Ellis SG: Ellis/J. Crittenton/Mike Miller SF: Rudy Gay/Mike Miller PF: Kevin Love/Darko/Brown C: Darko Millicic/Kwame Brown or Brook Lopez If I was Memphis, I'd give Conley and Crittenton some time to develop and then see what else is out there. It may be worthwhile for Memphis to just to draft a big now and then wait for an established FA big later on. They might even be able to grab somebody like Elton Brand or get Jermaine O'neil while drafting either a big or a shooting guard this season. PG: Mike Conley/FA pg or Kyle Lowry SG: Eric Gordon or OJ Mayo (if he falls), Crittenton/Mike Miller SF: Rudy Gay/Mike Miller PF: Jermaine O'neil or Elton Brand C: Darko Milicic/Kwame Brown That lineup actually doesn't sound that bad depending if the center production has improved. I'm sure Memphis's biggest priority is finding that elusive center and replace Pau Gasol's absence. They got the point guard to replace Jason Williams. Rudy Gay and Mike Miller make up a decent scoring team compared to Battier/Posey, although they suffer in defense. Conley/Gordon (or Mayo) backcourt would be small, but let's just say a lot bigger players can lack more substance than these smaller guys. It really depends more on how these guys fit together... and right now looking at it, these guys need some 3 point shooting in the starting lineup. Using Conley or acquiring Ellis doesn't help their outside shooting. Maybe Gordon or Mayo might. Usually bigs go first, but not many scouts are high on Lopez or Love's potential with the way the nba style is. So maybe this where the extra cap money will factor in. Memphis could try and make a play for or sign and trade for the big man they need to start competing again. The reason I think Memphis made the playoffs before the Warriors was partly because they had Pau Gasol and a decent backcourt. There's definitely that relationship between big man and two supporting cast members that can shoot, catch, and deliver the ball. I never saw that in the Warriors and there probably wasn't anything that could be done because the draft picks we've had just didn't land us that big anchor in the paint (at least not until Biedrins came along and developed). It would have been nice though if we had gotten Amare instead of Dunleavy or West instead of Pietrus. That would have changed the whole picture.
Awesome writeups guys. I think if Monta can consistently hit that side 3, and work on his handles a little more that he'll actually earn a near max contract. Combine the outside shot with that freakishly consistent mid-range jumper, and he'll be a unique talent in the league. The reason I posed the question was to just get a good gague on what everyone thought we could get for Monta, or how much they thought other teams may throw at him.
