Fantasy Spin: Gary Payton joins Lakers Tuesday, July 8, 2003 by Graham Hays ESPN Fantasy Games Gary Payton Point Guard Los Angeles Lakers 2002-03 SEASON STATISTICS GM FG% FT% 3PM REB AST STL BLK PTS 80 .454 .710 0.7 4.2 8.3 1.7 0.2 20.42 Gary Payton's arrival in Los Angeles is bad news for NBA parity and bad news for fantasy depth at the point guard position. No matter how you look at it, Payton's raw statistics will suffer playing third fiddle -- albeit an immensely talented third fiddle -- to Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal. A dip in scoring is easy to predict. No Laker other than O'Neal or Bryant averaged more than 10 shots a game in any of the last three seasons, but Payton hasn't averaged fewer than 15 shots since 1993-94. Even if he averages 14 shots a game -- which would represent a substantial shift in the way shots are distributed in Los Angeles -- Payton would have a tough time breaking 16 points per game. Additional open three-point looks represent his best hope of picking up free points, but Payton hasn't been much of a long-distance shooter in recent seasons. Since average 6.3 attempts per game in 1999-2000, he's averaged just 2.9 attempts and 33-percent shooting the last three seasons. Given Derek Fisher's productivity from behind the arc, Payton should average more than one three-pointer per game for the first time since 2000-01, but don't count on him averaging much more than that. There's more to the game than scoring points -- even in fantasy -- but are Payton's other numbers likely to improve? The most likely candidate seems to be assists. After all, who couldn't average a ton of assists throwing the ball to O'Neal and Bryant on a regular basis? Well, Fisher for one. Averaging at least 30 minutes a game the last three seasons, Fisher never averaged more than 4.3 assists while serving, at least nominally, as the team's point guard. Payton is a superior point guard, having averaged more than eight assists in each of the last six seasons, but Bryant won't suddenly cede control of the offensive flow. The Lakers averaged 23.7 assists per game last season, already among the best in the league. So it's foolish to think they'll simply add assists as a result of adding Payton. Instead, most of the assists he gains beyond Fisher's totals have to come from somewhere. And the most likely source is Bryant. Expect Bryant to average around 4.5 assists per game and Payton around 6.0 assists per game, hurting both players' fantasy profile. In the end, Payton should emerge as a much better version of Fisher. But that's still a far cry from the Payton fantasy owners grew to love -- and draft in the first round -- the last six or seven seasons. He'll still get enough steals and hit enough three-pointers to rank as a top-50 fantasy player, but he's not going to average 20 points -- there simply aren't enough shots. And it's almost as unlikely, given the nature of the team's offense and Bryant's skills, that he'll match a career average of 7.4 assists. Even from a fantasy perspective, there's nothing wrong with a point guard who averages 16 points, 6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 3-pointers. It's just not what we're used to out of Payton, and it's not worth a look in the first three rounds of your draft. The Lakers will be better with Payton, but their individual fantasy fortunes will suffer through a diffusion of statistics. PROJECTED TOP 10 POINT GUARDS Rank Player Team Comment 1 Jason Kidd NJ Either in New Jersey or San Antonio, he's simply the best all-around fantasy point guard. Last year's scoring improvement just sealed the deal. 2 Steve Francis Hou Not a pure point by any means, but that doesn't matter in fantasy. Averaged 6.2 assists and 6.2 rebounds last seeason. 3 Stephon Marbury Phx The playoffs demonstrated what fantasy owners already knew -- Marbury's game matured right along with his attitude last season. 4 Steve Nash Dal Now the final member of the elite class, Nash would average 20 if he weren't playing with Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Finley. 5 Gilbert Arenas GS We're not sure we even buy ranking him this high after he signs a fat new contract, but Arenas was simply awesome last season from a fantasy perspective. 6 Gary Payton LAL But he's on the way down, and Parker is on the way up. He's in Los Angeles for a ring, not to post big numbers. 7 Tony Parker SA Had his moments against Kidd -- and hey, nobody looked great in every Finals game. Even if he's displaced by Kidd in San Antonio, he's a 18.0 ppg, 8.0 apg guy waiting to happen. 8 Sam Cassell Min We like the idea of him feeding Garnett with assists, but Troy Hudson isn't dropping out of the mix. Cassell's assists have fallen in each of the last three seasons. 9 Jamal Crawford Chi Sure, drafting Jay Williams and Kirk Hinrich in back-to-back years isn't a vote of confidence, but look what he did at the end of the season -- 23.0 ppg and 6.5 apg in final eight games. 10 Andre Miller LAC For the record, we considered LeBron James a point guard for this list, but the rookie won't dominante right away. Miller will rebound with a new team.
