http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-survey-shows-US-recession-apf-3623088148.html?x=0 I don't believe its true, but its interesting.
The contraction being over isn't as important as the recovery that follows. If the recovery is a jobless one with massive inflation, we'd be better off in a recession.
If you have a stab wound, eventually as you lose blood the amount of blood leaking gets less and less, doesn't mean you're getting better.
that inflation will help u pay off those mounting debts to the chinese. plus, i always thought conservatives wanted more money in their own pockets
I see your analogy and counter with, "The first step in getting out of a hole is to stop digging." Man, I'd love to see this recession over. I don't really see it in the people I talk to, though. Hopefully everyone I know are "lagging indicators."
Productivity continues to increase. We may be looking at a jobless recovery. I know we've been able to cut accounting and management staff simply through better computer programs. We don't plan to bring those jobs back.
Automation is a hell of a thing. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution people have fretted that jobs lost to technology could never be replace. They've always been wrong. But just because it's always been so, doesn't mean it'll always be so. What happens if, thanks to technology, there just aren't enough jobs out there to keep people employed? Will Adam Smith's invisible hand of the marketplace always create an equilibrium? I wonder if at that point people transition from being primarily employees to being primarily stockholders. Maybe the dividend replaces the paycheck. Otherwise you get a steadily shrinking population able to afford goods. Which leads to lower production. Which leads to further recession.
I think the housing market has recovered, at least here in Boise. "Recovered" in the sense that prices have fallen to roughly a market level that's affordable to the local population. Buying hasn't picked up yet, but I think that's more due to anxiety and a poor job market than a lack of affordability. A lot of real estate investors think "recovery" means "prices are back to where they were two years ago." That, I think, is pretty unrealistic.
It's a troubling issue on a societal level. There may not be enough work to employ everyone to sustain society. Right now, the natural rate of unemployment (meaning those who wish to work, but cannot find employment) is assumed to be roughly 4.8%. It means that to have our aggregate outcome at long-run levels, only 95.2% of the people who wish to work need to be employed. What happens when productivity raises that natural rate to 10%? 20%? 30%? How can a market-based society exist? There will be people who produce and those who don't, who will have to be supported by the producers. It gets to the core of what it means to be a citizen. How do you contribute if there's no work for you? There is an interesting book called "The End of Work" by Jeremy Rifkin that discusses this very issue. He describes the problem well, but his policy prescriptions are weak. I don't think we've grasped the problem yet, because it requires a fundamental societal shift. The people that are falling through the cracks right now are the unskilled, but it's not going to stop there.
Yes, but the recent moves by the Bush and Obama administration to combat this hole is to KEEP on digging. Digging ourselves further and further into debt.
Depending on when you purchased your home, your personal recession may not be over until we get massive inflation. That's the only thing that will save homeowners' equity. Real dollar price increases will likely not return to 2005 levels for decades in some markets.
I wasn't really talking home equity. Fortunately, while the value of our home has dropped, we've been in the game long enough that we still have plenty of equity. Unfortunately, from an income standpoint, my primary business is land use planning consulting. With the huge hit that the real estate development market has taken in the past two years, people like myself are in more or less a survival mode.
"Trade, jobless claims figures show recession fades" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Trade-jobless-claims-figures-apf-3191143688.html?x=0
http://www.examiner.com/x-268-Right-Side-Politics-Examiner~y2009m9d4-True-unemployment-jumps-to-168--job-creation-and-consumer-spending-both-down-30 True unemployment jumps to 16.8% - job creation and consumer spending both down 30% The Labor Department reports the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent in August, from 9.4 percent in July. According to the Washington Post, the expanded unemployment rate -- a broader measure of joblessness that includes people who have given up looking for a job out of frustration and who are working part time but want a full-time job, rose from 16.3 percent to 16.8 percent. The tally now stands at 6.9 million jobs lost since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Since President Obama signed his boondoggle stimulus bill into law, nearly 2.5 million people have lost their jobs. Gallup reports both job creation and consumer spending are down more than 30% from a year ago:Right now, the job market apparently continues to deteriorate and the real unemployment rate continues to increase, regardless of what the Labor Department reports on Friday morning. [. . .] It may be that the current inventory- and "clunker"-driven economic upturn will be a "jobless" recovery. It is possible that government and business spending alone can drive economic improvement for a short period of time. However, without significant job creation, it is hard to see how consumer spending will increase; how many retailers will survive after the Christmas holidays; and how the economic recovery will be maintained into early 2010. It's time to reconsider all the recent happy talk about the economy.
america isnt alone. frankly i rather live in the saddest american states like michigan or indiana than britian who might be the hardest hit by the recession in the industrialized world. nevertheless, the jobs numbers are better and even housing appears to be turning around.
"Wholesale inventories drop in July; sales grow" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wholesale-inventories-drop-in-apf-4227725670.html?x=0
