Owners, Union to Meet with Mediator I'm find this to be non-insignificant good news. Both of the sides have proved the are ready to miss games. Now, perhaps, they can work toward a deal. If the players union is ready to cave this will give them the opportunity.
Is that a joke, serious or partially serious? Apparently Cohen has a history of working on sports negotiations which is good. It seems to me like people rely too much on the narrative that the lockout is a battle between personas, most notably Stern and Hunter/Fisher. The media portrays it that way because those stories are easy to understand. Really, though, I think it's a battle between six ownership groups and the players -- and the negotiators (or mediators) are of less importance. You need fifteen management groups to reach a deal. We can be relatively assured that nine teams would accept a 53% BRI split and the old cap structure. -- Boston -- New York -- LAL -- Chicago -- Houston -- Dallas -- Golden State -- Toronto -- Miami I'm also tempted to put Indiana in the group. The Pacers had the worst attendance level last year, but they have a new stadium, and a history of fan support destroyed by the Auburn Hills melee. They have a good balanced young team which could win fifty games next season and two players (Granger and Crazy T) who could be all stars if their seasons swing the right way. I think the Pacers more than any other team need basketball this season. Who do you guys think the next five/six teams will be? My guesses are -- Portland (who may already be on the list because they have an uber wealthy owner) -- Memphis (who may already be on the list because they have an uber wealthy owner) -- Orlando (which doesn't seem particularly concerned about turning a profit) -- Atlanta -- NJN (who may already be on the list because they have an uber wealthy owner and are trying to retain D Will and prepare for the move. On the flipside, they're just biding time until next year really.) -- Indiana (if they're not already on the list) One last comment: If the NBA had not expanded and allowed the Sonics to move to OKC there would likely already be a deal by now. Seattle is able to support a team like OKC cannot. You would only have needed 13 owners to agree and you would already have had 10 absolutelys on the list.
I'd rather have the parties agree to a binding arbitration but mediation will likely help matters more than hurt unless it results in both sides becoming more entrenched -- which shouldn't happen with an experienced mediator.
I've only had one experience with a fedmed and he neither helped nor hurt our negotiations. Maybe this colors my (kinda meh) opinion. On the plus side, since I don't know of any other big-time labor deadlocks out there, the NBA-NBPA ought to get the fed's A team. Hope it works, but I doubt it. The owners have been preparing to miss a full season for a few years now and the players don't appear ready to fold. I think this goes to another 11th hour situation in early January where the sides get to choose between either a 50-game season or no season at all. If it plays out this way, I don't have any kind of sense as to which alternative they'll choose.
I somehow have had three federal mediations. It's an anomaly since litigation isn't my core practice. The first two were consistent with your experience, Transplant. The third case was a family dispute masquerading as a commercial dispute. The mediator was able to work out a deal that opposing counsel and I would never have reached. So, yeah, I'm not convinced there is anything magical about the process when you have two sophisticated parties arguing over bread and not blood. I'm still, nonetheless, feeling relatively positive about the upcoming mediation. I've never worked on a deal that touches the size of the CBA but I'm a firm believer that disputes get resolved when parties are fatigued, not when they reach an offer that fits within their matrix. I think the owners will put at least two days into talks. It sounds like the parties were making some progress before the deadline to cancel the first two weeks. I know that mediations are strictly confidential but the parties will want to at least make some effort so that the news reports don't risk poising the NLRB case. At the very least, the mediation will put the parties through the wringer a third time and maybe soften the ground for future negotiations. The owners and NBAPA will have to deal with another round of the intrafamily squabbling that has surely set in. I also like the fact that the owners are meeting in full at the same time as the mediation. I wouldn't be surprised if this was planned in advance and not just an anomaly. If nothing else, it will allow the owners to move more quickly in their counteroffers.
Well, they're 15 and a half hours into the mediation. I can't imagine how tiring that must be. They have to be making some progress.
It looks like they're going to be able to make a deal: I wouldn't be surprised if the owners and NBAPA have a CBA locked up by Friday. The luxury tax issue is going to fall in line, with the owners giving a good deal of ground. There aren't enough owners who are willing to give up a full season for the issue. Cohen is ganstah'. I'm sure someone is going to write an academic paper about how his success shows the triumph of first-year-of-business-school "Getting to Yes" interest bargaining over positional bargaining. Cohen just needed to break them. Hunter and Stern are so, so tough . . . and then you work them for 16 fucking hours. Make them cry from exhaustion, and then come back in for a second day at 10 in the morning. Cohen isn't backing down either. I kind of wish Kevin Garnett was part of the negotiations. We'd get to see him curled up in the fetal position, begging for someone to put him out of his misery.
Well, hopefully I'll be wrong again. I'm not expecting anything from this round of negotiations and I think the season is all but spent. There are a couple reasons to be optimistic: Cohen is back assisting the negotiations and the owners are meeting before hand in mass to discuss the negotiations. I've got a good track record for being wrong about these negotiations -- let's hope it continues.
