<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Baseball season is upon us, so let's look at the NBA the way Paul DePodesta might. DePodesta, the Dodgers' computer-reliant general manager, is known for using unconventional numbers for his statistical analyses. Just as baseball relies on batting average, home runs and RBI, basketball long has focused on the traditional per-game averages to determine the strength of players and teams. Beyond the surface, however, are statistics that a number of front-office employees, most notably those in Dallas and Seattle, are using to determine why their teams are succeeding or failing in certain areas. The new-age statistics can be as simple as "effective field-goal percentage," which weighs the value of 2-point field goals versus 3-pointers, to something called a "Player Efficiency Rating," which creator John Hollinger said "sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance." Well, that sounds simple enough. Let's put it in simpler terms, and in relation to everyone's favorite topic: this season's Lakers. Anyone who has watched five minutes of a Lakers game this season knows that defense has been the team's downfall, but what exactly does that mean? How is it quantified? It's easy enough to say the Lakers are allowing more points than they did last season, but where are those points coming from, and where exactly is the defense lacking? Here's the answer, with some help from the statistical gurus at 82games.com. This season's Lakers are shockingly similar to last year's team, except in one critical area. Last season, they allowed an average of 17.9 points per game on free throws, compared to 18.2 points this year. That means last season's team allowed 76.4 points per game on opponent's field goals, compared to 82.3 this season, an increase of 5.9 points per game. Think that doesn't make a difference? Well, 15 of the Lakers' 42 losses this season have come by six or fewer points. Here's the surprising part. Even with the absence of Shaquille O'Neal, the Lakers' interior defense is only slightly worse, points-wise, than last season. Last year's group allowed 21.9 points per game on shots deemed "close to the basket," compared to 23.4 points this season. Dunks and tip-ins also had a negligible change, leaving only -- drum roll, please -- jump shots. Two-thirds of opponents' field-goal attempts this season have been on jumpers, the same as last season, but this season, opponents have an "effective" field-goal percentage of .441 on jumpers, compared to .408 last year. That works out to an average of 50.1 points scored on jumpers, compared to 45.7 last season. That little statistic also is the difference between the NBA Finals and the NBA Draft lottery. Here's what the numbers don't tell us. Is the Lakers' perimeter defense that much worse -- remember, Kobe Bryant missed 16 games -- or are teams getting better looks because they can run more of an inside-outside game this season without the threat of O'Neal clogging up the lane? As you can see, numbers only go so far in evaluation. Interpretation always will be necessary.</div> Source
