Gavin and CIP were at it again this morning

This morning on 95.5 Gavin and CIP were comparing Greg's rookie year to Dwight Howard/Amare Stoudemire/Yao Ming rookie years. They were convinced that those three players had much better rookie years, and that Greg was underachieving. On the surface, I suppose I can understand how someone could think that, but I decided to do a little digging.

My initial thoughts were this:
Orlando/Phoenix/Houston all had worse than a 41-41 record the year previous to drafting, or in Portland's case, actively playing their franchise caliber big. This would lead to their (ORL/PHO/HOU) franchise big being more the centerpiece of the offense, thus allowing them to accumulate more impressive stats and play more minutes. Conversely, Greg is our 3rd (or 4th behind Blake) option on offense behind two players (Roy/Aldridge) that averaged close to 20pts per game the year BEFORE Greg "arrived." Of course we have to take in to account Greg's foul problems, which limits his minutes as well, so I compared his fouls per game vs the others, and of course Greg avg's more FPG. But that is a FIXABLE problem. Greg just has to learn how to stay out of foul trouble which is a technique thing not an inherent skill (only 2 fouls in his last game, which led to 24pts and 15rbs). Defenders CAN and DO develop better technique and decision making.

Just look at the numbers below:

Dwight Howard
Rookie year ('04-'05): 12pts 10rbs 52%fg
Avg Minutes Played: 32.6
Fouls per game: 2.8
Orlando All-Stars ('04-'05): Grant Hill
Orlando record previous year ('03-'04): 21-61

Amare Stoudamire
Rookie year ('02-'03): 14pts 9rbs 47%fg
Avg Minutes Played: 31.3
Fouls per game: 3.3
Phoenix All-Stars ('02-'03): Stephon Marbury/Shawn Marion
Phoenix record previous year ('01-'02): 36-46

Yao Ming
Rookie year ('02-'03): 14pts 8rbs 50%fg
Avg Minutes Played: 29.1
Fouls per game: 2.8
Houston All-Stars ('02-'03): Steve Francis/Yao Ming
Houston record previous year ('01-'02): 28-54

Greg Oden
Rookie year ('08-'09): 8pts 7rbs 54%fg (Highest FG% of all four players + more minutes would = ??)
Avg Minutes Played: 22.7 (All other players played almost 10 more minutes per game)
Fouls per game: 3.7 (Almost 4 fouls per game is considered very high)
Portland All-Stars ('08-'09 projected): Brandon Roy
Portland record previous year: 41- 41 (Best record of all teams the previous year. In other words, something was going right before Greg joined the lineup, so why make drastic strategic changes upon his arrival? You don't! You fit him in until he's comfortable)

Or, we can make this very easy, and go Per 36 minutes played:

Howard per 36 rookie year
13.2pts
11.1rbs
52% FG
1blk

Amare per 36 rookie year
15.5pts
10.1rbs
47%FG
1.2blk

Yao per 36 rookie year
16.7pts
10.2rbs
50% FG
2.2blk

Oden per 36 rookie year
13.2pts
11.1rbs
54% FG
1.7blk

Per 36 puts Greg directly on par with the others.

Gavin and CIP can suck it.

P.S. And for fun (and Da Rizzle) let's look at Greg's per 36 this year vs Bynum's:

Oden per 36 rookie year
13.2pts
11.1rbs
54% FG
1.7blk

Bynum this year
15.5pts
9.4rbs
54% FG
2.1blk

Screw that. Let's do Bynum's rookie year
7.9pts
8.5rbs
40%FG
2.3blks

That's better.

 

I heard their producer/engineer (Zinger) was laid off a few days ago.

 

Nice work Professional Fan!

 

Since those idiots were thinking Greg sucked after his first game back at Miami and wouldn't amount to anything, then hung up on Wheels about it when he tried arguing his point, those guys lost their credibility.

 

After listening to these guys for a few months it seems like their just trying to stir up controversy whenever possible. Probably hoping to bring themselves up to Conzano's elite "hack" level of broadcasting. I'm not even sure they believe most of the opinions they express about the blazers.

 

did you bother to email that info to them? i'm sure they wouldn't be able to make any sense of it since research appears to have been done

 

I am still trying to understand why anybody listens to them.

 

They are on before Jim Rome, so I occationally catch the last of their show when I work from home on Wed. I can feel myself become dumber as they speak.

 

I don't think they'd even understand it if you brought it up to them really.

 

Maybe I'm retarded, but I couldn't find an email link on their site. I didn't try very hard, either.

 

I had a big discussion with someone awhile ago at just how stupid per36 & per48 stats are, so I'm not going to hijack the thread. But here are a few other rookie bigmen's per 36 stats. They seem to fit your definition of "directly on par" as well.

Brooke Lopez per 36
14.0 pts
10.1 rbs
48.5% FG
2.5 blks

Marc Gasol per 36
13.4 pts
8.7 rbs
51.8% FG
1.3 blks

Jason Thompson per 36
14 pts
9.8 rbs
48.4% FG
.86 blks

Kevin Love
13.6 pts
13.5 rbs
42.2% FG
.96 blks

It doesn't prove anything except that if everyone played exactly the same amount of minutes, their productivity would be relatively similar, compared to actually statistics -- what a surprise...

The fact remains, you are what you are. If you could play more, you would. And this is not an anti-Greg post, I think he'll be fine.

 

I have to say that I have a very hard time buying the per 36/48 or any estimated statistics in Greg Oden's case.

It is Greg's fault that he gets into foul trouble on a fairly regular basis. The other players on this list, were able to play.

I think it is not reasonable to say that Greg Oden is a bust, or will never be a great player. However, it is very reasonable to say that these three had better years as rookies, and that everyone expected more out of Greg than he has brought. There is still half a season left to take into account, but don't throw this out completely.

Gavin and CIP aren't the most accurate sports show (they compete on the FM side, with FM morning shows) and I don't agree with the D+ rating for Oden, but I don't think you can say that he is in their category as a rookie, or that he has completely met expectations.

 

Except your own numbers don't really support your case.

What do teams want a (classic) big man to do? Take up space. Defend the paint. Block shots. Rebound. Score high percentage shots in the paint. Get other bigs in foul trouble. And, ideally, draw double teams in the post.

Not all the stats are listed to go over all the points, but of what you listed;

Lopez is an inefficient scorer;

Gasol is a poor rebounder (and a terrible defender)

Thompson scores, but otherwise doesn't provide Center type stats and therefore game.

Kevin Love doesn't block shots or score at a high percentage.

Howard, Yao and Oden are similar. The above are not of the same type.

And finally, none of these numbers are adjusted for PACE.

If these numbers were adjusted for pace, Oden's numbers would look better comparitively as the Blazers have the slowest pace in the NBA.

 

Pretty sure it's msp@955thegame.com

-Pop

 

Both of them are jerkoffs! Here's some info that will prove that Gavin is a complete tool! He is no longer able to go to the Blazer games because he had his media credentials revoked!!!!! What a fuck! He gave his media pass to one of his friends and his boy tried to get into the locker room post game! A couple team reps recognized the name, and not the face and kicked the guy out! So how does one give an educated opinion on the team, when he can't even go to the games! Nice work you fuckin dork!

 

What a douche.

-Pop

 

You're missing the whole point, that you are who you are, not to mention you're wrong, the numbers do support my point. Their numbers are just as close to Oden as he is to say, Yao, who scored 3.5pts and .5 more blks per 36 minutes. All the rookies I listed are better than Greg in at least one category, & Lopez & Love are better in two. If I'm just going by these stat lines, I'm not seeing anything in Oden's line that separates him from these other rookies, sorry we disagree.

I mean, I think Oden will be better than those I listed, but these per36 stats are crap because they not only don't tell the whole story, they're only valid in a completely fictional world where everyone plays the same amount regardless of ability.

edit - And it's unfair to say categorically that all teams look for the same things in a center. Mike Dantoni does not want the same thing as Greg P. Some like a center that is more of an outside threat to take opposing big men away from the basket, etc. That will decrease their FG%.

 

Wow...unbelievable. I've heard of stupid things before but wow...this ranks right up there.

 

They play devil's advocate all the time. There's no shame in that.

You can go ahead and look at the numbers all you want. Greg has been unimpressive in the vast majority of the games this season. He's had nowhere near the impact that any of the guys Gavin and CIP were talking about had their rookie years. It's disappointing any way you look at it.

There's plenty of factors that might be contributing to why Greg has been so disappointing. It's entirely possible that Monday was a breakout game for Greg and he'll be great for the rest of the season.

But don't go raggin' on media types for pointing out the obvious.