I think it has more to do with establishing his value before signing a longer deal. Showing some flashes and completing the season will earn him more money than signing a longer deal now Not seeing the conspiracy theory here
While it is true that he can sign with others for less (simply because he wants to bolt), he also might get stonewalled next ear due to the fact he might have had another poor year/poor showing. Although I'm fairly certain I know the answer, can he sign with Portland during the year? What teams will be under the cap next year?
Portland can offer him a deal outside of the Q.O. once the FA period begins, right? From a PR standpoint, offer him $30 million/3 years, if he really is a part of the long-term future. If he declines it, and doesn't sign any RFA offers from other teams, then you can use him as trade bait at the deadline, since it would be obvious that declining $30 million would mean he's not coming back to PDX.
He may want to use this season to try and re-establish his value and get a longer deal than 3 years. He is only 23. He's going to try his hardest to get at least a 4-year deal.
Even if he signs the QO we can still extend him in the season. He should wait to see what offers people field and if there not that great sign it and see what we offer him after we see him play.
I can't imagine him extending. If I were his agent I'd be hoping that he gets through one season relatively unscathed and let him get to free agency where teams can bid up his value. I don't see any scenario where he gives Portland a hometown discount.
If he is on his QO, he would have the right to veto any trades during the season, so he might not make a great trade chip at the deadline.
Tell that to some of the people who keep saying how much he "owes" the city of Portland for standing by him (whatever that means?)
No. No he's not. Whatever he wants would be close to or exactly a max contract. Oden's risk-reward ratio is all fucked up, which means his value is significantly south of that point. The question is how much risk and pain do teams want to risk. Where that tolerance for risk intersects with Bill Duffy's wishes will determine where he goes and for how much.
The nice thing about signing him to a deal during this season instead of offering him a deal last year is that the team can apply the new "stretch contract" rule to his deal in the event of another massive injury.
I see one chance that Oden stays. IF (huge if) he stays healthy and plays well enough with the rest of the team to make it deep into the playoffs, I could see him wanting to stay. Most of his stresses go away if he is healthy and winning, and PDX is actually a very supportive city to players who are healthy and good on the court. He will have relationships with the other players and coaches and could very well decide to stay. If however, he either gets a major injury again this year, can't stay on the court due to fouling, plays crappy, or the team does first round or worse, then I would almost certainly expect Oden to leave.
