http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/14th-overall/140509/ This is going back to 1980. This can also give you any selection in the first round. I chose the 14th because that seems to be the arbitrary number noteable 14th picks: Drexler, Stojkavoic, Brewer, Thornton, Henson. 15th: Greek Freak, Harkless, Robin Lopez, Jefferson, Nash. 16th: Vucevic, Babbitt, Turkey Glue 17th: Hibbert, Josh Smith, Jermaine O'Neal, Kemp I could go on and on. And remember, this is the last 35 years. I'm sure "notable" will mean different to other people, so I tried to go most known to us as well as just recognizable names. So, at most, 5 or 6 in every slot... runs about a 1/25 (at most) chance of landing something that would help us immediately (or in some of these cases I mentioned, not at all, and I just mentioned them since they were blazers).
Good summary, I noted in the unmitigated disaster thread that picks in this range are a total crap shoot, there's only about a 5% - 10% chance (depending on the depth of the draft - this tears draft is NOT deep) of landing a player that will actually be a solid contributor in his first 2 or 3 years. The balance is split about equally between guys that never amount to shit and guys that eventually become decent rotation players (often after being traded once or twice). Tanking to get the 13th or 14th pick in this draft never made sense to me. Let DEN have it. We already have young players (Harklesss and Vonleh) that are better than anyone we'd likely get with that pick. Those guys are still VERY young and need minutes to develop. There aren't enough minutes to go around to add another youngster to the mix. I'd rather have Neil focus his efforts on finding another Maurice Harkless type player who is still young, but cut his teeth burning up minutes on someone else's roster. Olshey stole Harkless for a top 55 protected pick, he's still only 22 and will contribute WAY more next season than anyone we would have drafted at 13 or 14. Let someone else take the risks and then pluck the under-appreciated gems once you've seen what they can actual do on an NBA court. BNM
As I said at the beginning of the season - 8th is better than 9th, but 15th is also better than 9th. The ass-end of the lotto is the worst place to be. Once it was clear the Blazers weren't in the running for a top 5 pick, making a run for the play-offs made sense.
I was happy with the tanking at first because I didn't really see the point in barely entering the playoff with a losing record. Now that we're the 5th seed win 6 more wins than losses, it obviously changes everything Plus the fact that the pick would be lost eventually, it's really not a big deal
Aside from all this... NO has shown a penchant for the FA and under-the-radar signings... so I trust him there.
Here is the list of #14's since 1990 year Player Drafted From Drafted By 2013 Shabazz Muhammad UCLA Utah 2012 John Henson North Carolina Milwaukee 2011 Marcus Morris Kansas Houston 2010 Patrick Patterson Kentucky Houston 2009 Earl Clark Louisville Phoenix 2008 Anthony Randolph LSU Golden 2007 Al Thornton Florida State L.A. Clippers 2006 Ronnie Brewer Arkansas Utah 2005 Rashad McCants UNC Jr. Minnesota 2004 Kris Humphries Minnesota Fr. Utah 2003 Luke Ridnour Oregon Jr. Seattle 2002 Frederick Jones Oregon Sr. Indiana 2001 Troy Murphy Notre Dame Jr. Golden State 2000 Mateen Cleaves Michigan St. Sr. Detroit 1999 William Avery Duke So. Minnesota 1998 Michael Dickerson Arizona Houston 1997 Maurice Taylor Michigan LA Clippers 1996 Predrag Stojakovic Greece Sacramento 1995 Eric Williams Providence Boston 1994 Yinka Dare George Washington New Jersey 1993 Scott Haskin Oregon State Indiana 1992 Malik Sealy St. John's Indiana 1991 Rich King Nebraska Seattle 1990 Travis Mays Texas Sacramento
So, one all-star (Peja) in the last 25 drafts and he didn't become a starter until his 3rd season. Yeah, missing out on the next Mateen Cleaves isn't going to cause me to miss any sleep. BNM
I was excited to add a top pick, but then or team was better than we expected. Awesome. Now I'm excited about that instead. And now we get the pick next year. I can't wait to see where this team can go! At least we didnt go all Hinkie and suck on purpose.
True. But I thought 1990 was more relevant since it was around the time time they went to two only 2 rounds. But actually the more I think about it, it was after 2006 when things started to change when the first one and dones started. Regardless the draft has changed over the years. It is not the same. I think there is a bigger need for player development with so many underclassmen entering the draft before they are ready. A lot more patience is needed too by fans and management.
This is what I don't get though. There is only a 7 game difference currently. Those 7 wins make that drastic of a change? Not in my mind. Yeah, being an 8th seed with a losing record would not be as good, but still better than half the conference even if it is a weaker year. Those 7 additional wins didn't change my view though. With a young core like this that has had very little actual Playoff "On The Court" experience, a 1-4 first round exit still seems to be a bigger asset than another young project. Let these guys get a taste of the post season. IF they lose, let them get angry over it and see what it takes to make that next step for next year. To me any type of playoff scenario is a better asset than a 14th pick. Yes the 14th pick, we MIGHT find a diamond in the rough, but history shows its rare. Id much rather give these guys the experience and let them grow into next year.
One more thing to remember about this draft... There are a few teams that have multiple first round picks this year (Philly-3 or 4, Boston-3 including 5 seconds, Denver-somewhere between 2&4). Since this is a "weak" draft, I would anticipate that some of these draft picks in the late 1st or second round be available for CASH or possibly a future pick (see the pick we are owed from Cleveland). IF Portland finds a prospect they really want (after pick 20 or so), there is a decent chance they can go get him.
Bingo! Although I think it will take cash plus a 2nd rounder this year. And in some ways (for some teams) early 2nd rounders are more valuable than late 1st's. So just depends on who drops and how far we think they will slide.
I have thinking this as well, especially since January when they started to play better. This might be an extreme example but what if a team started off 0-20 and ended up 40-42 and making the playoffs, would that team be less deserving than a team who started 20-0 and ended 50-32? From a fan's perspective I would view them about the same.
Yeah they say ideally a team doesn't want more than two first round picks in one year. After that you have diminishing returns. The days of buying picks of any value for cash are long gone; when franchises are worth $2 billion and teams can only pay $3 million, it's just not happening. But yes we most definitely could package a future pick for a selection this year. I don't expect us to trade for a first round pick though; we will be very close to having a max free agent cap spot available if we renounce Hendo but keep our restricted free agents. I think Neil wants to keep that option available. The cap hold of a first round selection reduces that flexibility when we're right on the very edge of having enough room.
