Hollinger Piece on Lakers

Basketball may be a player's game, but coaching can make a huge difference. The 2005-06 Lakers were a case in point, as Phil Jackson's return helped push L.A. to a 45-win season and, nearly, a first-round upset of Phoenix in the playoffs.

Jackson improved L.A. by 11 games despite having less talent on hand (thanks to the daffy Caron Butler-Kwame Brown trade), with most of his impact coming at the defensive end. For all the talk about the hallowed triangle offense, it didn't change things much -- L.A. was seventh in offensive efficiency in 2004-05, and eighth with Jackson a year later.

But the Zen Master's defensive impact was huge. L.A. was a poor defensive team a year earlier, especially in the final two months, when the team essentially quit on interim coach Frank Hamblen. Overall the Lakers ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and forced fewer turnovers than any team in the league.

Under Jackson, then, the improvement to the middle of the pack -- 15th overall -- was enormous. The Lakers greatly increased their forced turnovers, thanks mainly to the fast hands of point guard Smush Parker, and pulled themselves up to the league average in most of the other defensive categories. As a result, what had been an awful defense is now an acceptable one.

From there, Kobe Bryant took care of the rest. The shooting guard had his best season as a pro, leading the league in scoring with a whopping 35.4 points per game, finishing a close third in the NBA in player efficiency rating and finishing fourth in the MVP voting. Bryant's explosion more than made up for the loss of Butler, as well as the Lakers' other limitations. Even though only three other players had any scoring ability in the half court (Lamar Odom, Chris Mihm and Brian Cook), Bryant was so good that L.A. finished well above the league average in offensive efficiency.

A big second-half push played a major role. L.A. went into the All-Star break at 26-26 after a disappointing home loss to lowly Atlanta, but was 11-3 in the final 14 games despite an injury to Mihm. A friendly schedule helped -- 11 of the games were at home -- while Brown seemed more comfortable at Mihm's center spot than he'd been at power forward. Meanwhile, Bryant took over in April, averaging 41.6 points on 50.9 percent shooting in the final eight contests.

L.A.'s finishing run included eight double-digit wins in its last 11 games, which made what happened in the playoffs even more surprising. It wasn't that the Lakers lost, but rather the way they lost. The Lakers were on fire heading into the postseason and were facing a Phoenix team that had been reeling defensively over the final two months, so L.A. looked primed for a potential upset.

However, this was where Jackson made his one huge mistake, making Kobe a secondary player in the offense while focusing his team on pounding the ball inside to Brown, Odom and Luke Walton. There's a temptation to think the strategy "worked" since the Lakers raced out to a 3-1 series lead, but the reality was that they were wasting a strong defensive effort with a counterproductive offensive strategy.

Bryant's true shooting percentage for the series was 58.7, even better than he was in the regular season, but barely averaged 20 shot attempts a game (he was at 27.2 in the regular season, and in fewer minutes per game). Meanwhile, Walton's true shooting percentage was a meager 49.5, with five free-throw attempts the entire series despite his numerous post-up chances; Brown was at 57.2, and Odom at 56.4. All three shot much more than in the regular season, even allowing for their increased playoff minutes (see chart), but each was less effective than Bryant.

In other words, the Lakers made a conscious effort to direct shots to the players who were least capable of making them, directly resulting in their disappointing offensive output in the series. Phoenix's defense was a train wreck in the second half of the season, as the Clippers and Mavs adequately proved in subsequent series, but the Lakers only cleared 100 points twice in five games because of their bizarre offensive tactics. The one game where they scored the most was the game they unleashed Bryant, as he poured in 51 points in an overtime loss in Game 6.

Basically, Jackson acted like he was a No. 15 seed playing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in need of some kind of "trick" to upset a superior opponent, when in reality his club had a great chance of winning if it had just played the same way it had to end the season. Instead, once the Suns' offense finally got going in Game 5, the Lakers were blown off the floor in two of the final three games. And things ended on an ugly note, with a dejected, passive Bryant mailing in the second half of Phoenix's Game 7 blowout win. It was a rare blunder by one of the game's all-time great coaches.

OFFSEASON MOVES

Apparently Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak is trying to make up for all these years he was on autopilot during the Shaq era. In a departure from its recent history, L.A. not only showed a pulse this summer, but also didn't make any moves that were actively destructive.

Signed Vladimir Radmanovic. It was nice to see the Lakers use their full midlevel exception to get a player, but I don't know why they chose this one. The Lakers already have somebody who does almost exactly the same things in Brian Cook, plus he does them better and costs less money.

Additionally, L.A. could have targeted more pressing needs elsewhere -- most notably the tenuous point guard situation or the need for another quality big man. While L.A. wanted another shooter and Radmanovic certainly qualifies, I have a hard time seeing him giving them fair value on his contract, especially considering he makes Cook redundant.

The Radmanovic signing has another impact as well. L.A. has been targeting cap space in the summer of 2007 to make a push for a free agent, but signing Radmanovic probably brings that pursuit to an end. It's still possible for them to get under the cap if they don't pick up the final year of Brown's contract, but they'll only have enough space for a star if the cap increases substantially.

The lone good news here, as I mentioned at the start, is that L.A. did get a player. Depth has been a problem the past few years, and this signing makes it much less so.

Traded for Maurice Evans, let Devean George leave. Now we're talking. The Lakers got Evans from Detroit in a draft-day trade that cost them only a second-round pick, enabling them to let George depart while replacing him with a better player. Evans' ability to shoot from distance solves the Lakers' need for more shooters, while his defensive ability gives the team a strong option off the bench at either wing spot. And his acquisition likely means we won't be subjected to another year of watching Sasha Vujacic fire up bricks.

Signed Shammond Williams. In another move that shows the Lakers were actually paying attention this summer, they nabbed Williams after the former Sonic had a strong season in Europe. Williams is a natural shooting guard, but since L.A. asks so little of its point guards, he can probably play the point in this system, where he adds yet another shooter to put around Bryant.

Drafted Jordan Farmar. Taking an athletic point guard near the end of a weak draft was probably a reasonable gamble, but don't expect immediate dividends on this one.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

Height. Besides "We have Kobe Bryant," L.A.'s biggest advantage is its length, which is a direct result of Jackson's emphasis on height. The surprise winner of the point guard contest in training camp last year was the 6-foot-4 Parker, and that had much to do with the Zen Master's affinity for big guards. So did the choice of his backup: the 6-7 Vujacic.

Right up the line, the Lakers were bigger than average at every position and will be again this year. Bryant (6-6) and Evans (6-5) will be the primary shooting guards, while Walton (6- and Odom (6-10) will see most of the action at small forward. Up front, it's more of the same -- Kwame Brown played power forward for most of last year at 6-11, while he and 7-footers Mihm and Andrew Bynum are the three candidates for center duty. Added to the mix are 6-10 combo forward Radmanovic and 6-9 Cook. Only Williams, at 6-1, isn't big for his position.

The result is that the Lakers tend to have a station-to-station mentality, usually advancing the ball via the pass and, except for Bryant, rarely looking to dribble penetrate. Defensively, their size takes away mismatches in the post and reduces the need to double-team, and although the Lakers don't go to it often, it also would make them a good zone team.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Point guard. One reason I wasn't so keen on the Lakers' pursuit of Radmanovic is that somebody like Mike James or Speedy Claxton could have made a much greater impact. Parker was a pleasant surprise last year, but it was in more of a "Hey! He can he actually do stuff!" kind of way. The fact that a total unknown could be a contributor was surprising, but he falls well short of the standard for a starting NBA point guard.

Williams is in a similar vein -- I like him as a 10-15 minute a night guy off the bench, but to trot him out as a starter for 82 games would put the team at a huge disadvantage. And Farmar is more of a developmental guy who probably won't contribute this year. The only other available candidate is Vujacic, who is still trying to find out where the basket is.

As a result, the Lakers are likely to be among the worst two or three teams in the league at this position. On paper, only Cleveland looks shakier. So Kupchak's midseason assignment, should he choose to accept it, will be to look for a deal that ships a surplus frontcourt player (most likely Cook or Walton) for some backcourt help -- in this system, preferably a big guard who can shoot.

2006-07 OUTLOOK

The Lakers are at least a player short from serious contention, but they'll have a puncher's chance in any playoff series as long as they have Bryant (and remember to call a few plays for him).

In projecting the Lakers' hopes for this year, the biggest variable obviously is Bryant. While nobody doubts his talent, last season was by far the best of his career, so it's only reasonable to expect his next campaign to fall slightly short of it. That's especially true since Bryant had minor offseason knee surgery and may need the early part of the season to get his sea legs.

But several other factors should offset that. First, the Lakers were better than their record indicated a year ago -- they had 49 expected wins, but finished with only 45 wins. So even if Bryant slipped a little, they would be able to make up for some of it just with better luck.

Moreover, other changes should help. The additions of Radmanovic, Evans and Williams solidify what was a very weak bench a year ago; they should be much more effective than George, Vujacic and free-agent bust Aaron McKie were in 2005-06. Brown may put up better numbers based on his strong close to the season, and perhaps Bynum will contribute something too. All told, I expect the Lakers to be at least as good as they were a year ago, with an outside shot at a top-four seeding in the West.