Hollinger Ranks Magic #1 in East

Shapecity · Aug 11, 2009

Say this about the NBA this summer: They've kept it interesting.
We were expecting a fairly humdrum free-agent season while everyone held their cards for the LeBron Sweepstakes next summer. Instead, the opposite happened. Every contender in sight began loading up, and despite warnings of economic Armageddon, several championship hopefuls blew past the luxury-tax threshold without even tapping the brakes.

Though we didn't have any All-Star free-agent signings, the list of players who changed uniforms this summer is an impressive one. Shaquille O'Neal, Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, Ron Artest, Trevor Ariza, Rasheed Wallace, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Ben Gordon, Antonio McDyess, Emeka Okafor, Tyson Chandler, Charlie Villanueva and Hedo Turkoglu were among the prominent names to relocate.

And we might have a few more to add to that list, as prominent free agents like David Lee, Allen Iverson and Ramon Sessions are still unsigned. We also could still see several money-driven moves by teams over the tax line, with the most notable potential one being Utah's Carlos Boozer. And with nearly two months to go until camp starts, it's still possible we'll see Quentin Richardson dealt six or seven more times.

But while the offseason isn't complete, things have clearly calmed down from the initial frenzy. Money is tight everywhere, and a lot of teams are done shopping, especially since several clubs will limit themselves to the minimum 13-man roster.

Hungry for more? So are we. And as luck would have it, it's time to check out the menu for this season. With 30 different items there are several kinds of grub to choose from, ranging from five-star specials to stuff you wouldn't feed your dog.

In the big picture, there's a pretty clear pecking order in each conference, so I've grouped everybody into five categories. So order your drinks and stay awhile. Today I'll start with the East and establish where everybody stands and how, exactly, they got there. In the next edition, we'll move on to the West.

Group I: The Entrees
Oh sure, you'll eat the free bread and order a side dish or two. But realistically, these will be the last and most memorable items on your plate at the end of the season.

Orlando: The defending conference champs didn't exactly rest on their laurels, did they? At this juncture, in fact, their roster looks a lot more fearsome than it did at the end of last season. Carter is a major upgrade on Turkoglu, while free-agent additions Matt Barnes and Brandon Bass make what was a thin frontcourt suddenly look much deeper.

Add in whom they retained (Marcin Gortat) and returned (Jameer Nelson, after a shoulder injury wiped out the second half of his season) and the Magic look absolutely stacked. At this point, they have to be considered the favorites in the East, and depending on how this remix works out at the defensive end, there's a chance they could post a jaw-dropping win total.

The one reason for misgiving is a lack of backcourt depth after the trades of Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee to New Jersey; now Mickael Pietrus is a likely starter and J.J. Redick and Anthony Johnson will have to play major minutes, and another injury to Nelson could leave them exposed.

Cleveland: Scary thought -- the Cavs won 66 games and got better in the offseason. Whatever they get from Shaquille O'Neal will dwarf the contributions of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic a year ago, so that trade is a home run for Cleveland. Beyond that, they addressed the greatest area of concern by adding size and depth on the wings in the form of Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon.

Cleveland also kept Anderson Varejao, and while their payroll is on pace to outstrip the national debt, that's Dan Gilbert's problem. On the court, they've strengthened three key rotation spots without losing a single important player.

The Cavs can make a strong case that they will match much better against Orlando now, especially against Dwight Howard with Shaq in the middle. One caveat, however: They must overcome the distraction of the most eagerly anticipated walk year in sports history.

Boston: Yes, it's possible the Celtics' magical championship march in 2008 was a one-shot deal. But dismiss them at your peril.

Last season they won more games than Orlando, even though Kevin Garnett missed the final two months, and took the Magic to seven games in the conference semifinals. Garnett will be back, but is something of a question mark until he shows his knee is fine. Meanwhile, the Celtics brought in reinforcements in Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels, with the former being particularly useful since the Celtics lacked a "stretch 4" a year ago.

Age is a huge issue here, and they'll have to pace themselves in the regular season, so they're probably going to be the East's No. 3 seed. But if they're healthy come playoff time and the Ubuntu is flowing, they still look like a team that can win the East.

Group II: The Tasty Hors D'oeuvres
Scrumptious in small doses, these clubs are hoping to steal your attention from the centerpiece, and at times it seems they might succeed. But each lacks a key ingredient to keep it on our plate 'til June.

Atlanta: A distant fourth in the East this past season, the Hawks look to have retained that position after a successful offseason. Atlanta kept all its major free agents (Marvin Williams, Mike Bibby and Zaza Pachulia), and supplemented its shaky backcourt depth by trading for Jamal Crawford and drafting Jeff Teague.

The most controversial move is the acquisition of Crawford, a mindless gunner who plays no defense whatsoever. But they got him for free, and the man he replaced, Flip Murray, wasn't exactly known as the Human Assist. He'll be fine as the designated launcher off the bench.

If Atlanta can extend Joe Johnson and add a veteran big man (Joe Smith, anyone?), it will be a near-perfect summer, with the only blemish being the Hawks' inability to convert restricted free agent Josh Childress into a usable asset.

Chicago: Postseason darlings after taking Boston to seven thrilling games in the first round, Chicago lost a big chunk of its offensive firepower when Ben Gordon bolted for Detroit. But with the trio of Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng and John Salmons likely to be healthier than they were last season, Gordon might not be missed.

The other big factor in Chicago's favor is the likely improvement of young players like Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas. That's not a "nice to have," though; it's imperative. The kids have to get better, because the Bulls didn't sign any players as they gear up for a free-agent run next summer. In fact, it's possible they'll trade Thomas or Hinrich to have more cap space left over.

Miami: Like the Bulls, the Heat mostly stood by with their hands in their pockets waiting until next summer, when they'll have enough cap space to add a max-contract free agent and another well-compensated sidekick to run with Dwyane Wade. In the meantime, this club doesn't look much different than the one that lost to the Hawks in the first round a year ago. Wade guarantees them a .500 record if he's healthy and gives them a puncher's chance of pulling an upset in the playoffs, but it's hard to see how they'll get better right away unless Michael Beasley blows up.

Group III: The Mystery Meat
These teams are the equivalent of going to a foreign country and ordering blindly off a menu in another language. It might be awesome, it might be terrible; really, you have no idea. But it will definitely be different, and you'll probably walk away with a good story or two.

Toronto: The Euraptors spent a ton of money this summer, but whether it was well-spent is a question open for debate. For starters, spending a combined $100 million for Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani would make a lot more sense if basketball had a DH rule. Jarrett Jack at $20 million was excessive as well, and if the Euraps don't commit to paying a luxury tax down the road, these deals are going to give them a lot of problems.

But hey, it's not my money, and it might all work out brilliantly. They're committed to a floor-spacing, sweet-shooting outfit reminiscent of Bryan Colangelo's old Suns teams in a final crack at convincing Chris Bosh to stay beyond this season. Either that or they're trying to convince Bosh he's really living in Geneva; somebody needs to check to see if they aren't setting all the clocks six hours ahead up there.

While Toronto spent freely, there were some value moves beneath the surface: They got Rasho Nesterovic for a song and Marco Belinelli for less than that, and while I'm not high on DeMar DeRozan, a lot of folks whom I respect are.

I guess what I'm saying is I have no idea how this will work out, which is how they ended up in the mystery meat section. It's easy to split the difference and say they'll be a .500-ish team, but I don't think that will be the outcome. I'm expecting either a brilliant success or a spectacular failure, and I'm really not sure which.

Washington: "We won 19 games last year. Let's go all-in." Hey, if Boston can do it after winning 24 games, why not these guys?

That said, this isn't quite like landing Garnett and Ray Allen. Washington obtained Mike Miller and Randy Foye from Minnesota and is hoping that Gilbert Arenas can finally shake off two years of knee injuries and become a dominating scorer again. While the Wizards are finding out if this works any better than last season's outfit, or the procession of 40-something-win teams that preceded it, they'll also be paying luxury tax through the nose.

Only one offseason move can allay my cynicism, and that's the hiring of Flip Saunders. Yes, he's had some playoff failures, but the dude wins. Somehow, he'll figure out how to get some competent defense from these guys and teach talented-but-frustrating young 'uns like JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche and Nick Young how to play with others. If somehow Arenas can regain his old form, it might all work out spectacularly well.

Group IV: Can I Send This Back?
Sure, they look like decent appetizers at first glance. But once you have a few bites, it turns out there's something half-baked about each of these clubs.

Detroit: Are we sure Joe Dumars is still the one calling the shots over here? Trading Chauncey Billups? Extending Richard Hamilton? Signing Kwame Brown and Chris Wilcox? Trading in coaches like they're eligible for the "cash for clunkers" program? Does this sound like the guy who was two steps ahead of everybody else in the league for half a decade?

The Pistons have four guards who can score and none who can pass. They have two centers who might not shoot .800 from the line … combined. Their starters at the 2, 3 and 4 would have trouble bench-pressing my laptop. They have another new coach, and maybe he'll make this all work somehow, but I'm not holding my breath.

Philadelphia: It's painful to watch a quality team leak talent because finances have tied their hands, but that's what happened to the Sixers. They had to let Andre Miller walk because their woeful attendance can't support a luxury-tax payroll, and now they have to hope that Elton Brand bounces back from a horrific first year in Philly.

If Brand delivers, this might work out anyway. There's quite a bit of young talent here (Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams, Jrue Holiday and a returning-from-injury Jason Smith), and an offseason trade for Jason Kapono will help with their biggest Achilles' heel, shooting. New coach Eddie Jordan, an offensive maestro, should find them a few extra points as well. Nonetheless, getting back to the playoffs is the ceiling here. As for the floor? Don't look down.

Charlotte: The best news of the offseason is that owner Robert Johnson plans to sell the team. Bobcats fans have to hope he'll find a buyer immediately, and that whoever takes over won't be too awed by Michael Jordan's presence to tell him you can't run a basketball team from a driving range 700 miles away.

Otherwise, the Bobcats willfully downgraded from Emeka Okafor to Tyson Chandler because … well, we're not sure why. They haven't re-signed Raymond Felton because they don't want to be a tax team next year, and they haven't signed any new players at all, and since they were one of the league's worst offensive teams a year ago and just traded the only guy who made half his shots, I'm not sure how it's gonna work.

Indiana: Note to the Pacers: Signing seven players who average two points a game isn't the same as signing one player who averages 14. Indiana spent its offseason combing the league for 11th men, forking out a four-year, $11 million deal for Dahntay Jones and another $2.9 million for Earl Watson. Solomon Jones and Josh McRoberts were the other big offseason signings for the Pacers, who also picked up gritty but limited forward Tyler Hansbrough in the draft. Meanwhile, they let Jarrett Jack and Marquis Daniels walk to sign deals for roughly the same money; Jack alone will probably outproduce the five new players combined.

About the only piece of legitimately good news for Indy is that Mike Dunleavy is apparently recovering very nicely from a career-threatening knee injury. Plug him into last season's roster and this was probably a playoff team. Alas, the same can't be said for this year's bunch.

Milwaukee: You could argue the Bucks should go in the next category down as another of the league's economic victims. They gave away Richard Jefferson and lost Villanueva without a fight. The thing everyone forgets, though, is that Milwaukee was playing well last season until Michael Redd and Andrew Bogutwere injured. The Bucks made a couple helpful additions amidst all the subtractions -- Hakim Warrick, Kurt Thomas, Ersan Ilyasova, Amir Johnson -- and if they can find a way to hang on to Ramon Sessions, they might be OK.

Group V: Roadkill
I'm pretty sure this is meat, but it tastes like an animal not normally served in restaurants, and I think I see a tread mark. We're outta here …

New Jersey: New Jersey and Milwaukee were the first Eastern teams to offer a total capitulation to the economic downturn. The Nets traded Vince Carter for spare parts, slashed the salaries of any staff they hadn't already laid off and hid in a bunker the rest of the summer. Their only activity this season will be removing players, not adding them, and the result will be even more empty seats than usual in the Swamp.

New York: The Knicks didn't sign anybody, which is probably a good thing considering whom they targeted. Jason Kidd? Grant Hill? Does this make any sense for a rebuilding team? Hey, you want to put in an offer for Adrian Dantley while you're at it?

They still haven't moved to retain David Lee or Nate Robinson, as they're caught in a quandary of whether to forfeit their 2010 cap space and a possible run at LeBron James. Trading Quentin Richardson for Darko Milicic will help a bit as they now have a legit center -- albeit one who plays hard in around one game in five -- but that's about the high point of the summer thus far.
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Source: ESPN

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Hollinger Ranks Magic #1 in East

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Hollinger Ranks Magic #1 in East

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