He's easily my favorite ESPN analyst, and here's his profiles and outlook of each of the Rockets players for next season (if you have Insider): http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/teams/hollinger?team=hou I'll summarize what he said about the important players. Not saying I agree with everything, but I think in general they are very good assessments: Rafer Alston: - Turned out to be a bad trade for Houston - "Alston's 3-point stroke didn't make it through customs" - Provided goot ball distribution with the Assist-ratio - Despite being a playground legend, isn't very flashy as a pro - Sees the court well, quick, "flawless dribber" - mediocre defender, gambles too much, doesn't move his feet well - Should bounce back this season and put up better shooting numbers, but starting job might be in jeopardy if he continues to struggle Shane Battier: - legitimate All-Defensive Team candidate - great On/Off defense, Opponent PER, and good with the steals and blocks as well - not a great player, but ultimate glue guy and extremely versatile - If league kept stat for "balls tipped to a teammate to preserve possession," he would have led the league - effort and character beyond reproach - great short term deal for Rockets; Grizzlies might have gotten the better of it long term - he'll likely excel under Van Gundy and playing with two stars, and possibly have a career year Chuck Hayes: - monster on the boards, exceeded expectations with offensive efficiency - shockingly high PER (between Webber and Jamison), surprising he didn't get more minutes last year given his production - "He makes up for his size with strength, toughness, tenacity and a great nose for the ball. Hayes also has fast hands, averaging a steal every 19 minutes -- numbers we usually only see from guards. Overall, the Rockets were a jaw-dropping 10.1 points per game better with Hayes on the court. That's probably a fluke because of how few minutes he played, but it nonetheless underscores that he's pretty good at that end." - offensively, he's great on the boards, worthless otherwise - high shooting percentage due to mostly putback attempts, can't get a shot off otherwise due to lack of size - great first season, unlikely his stats will look as good this year (despite the computer projections, which are overly optimistic) - shooting percentage has "fluke" written all over it - if he can continue to defend and rebound and get the occasional putback, it might be enough to carve out a rotation spot Luther Head: - a mediocre rookie campaign, did not create his own shot well - unexceptional at his specialty, shooting, and struggled in other areas offensively - good rebounder, below average with the assist-rate and his turnover-rate was poor for either guard spot - a great shooting stroke, but he's a tweener - small for a SG, not quick enough or elusive enough with the ball for PG - defensively, has good anticipation, but can be overwhelmed by bigger wing players - should expect him to take a step forward going in to his second season, as most guards do - has a lot of competition on this roster, though, so he may not get half the minutes he got last year Juwan Howard: - that he started 80 games indicates how weak the Rockets bench was - consistent mediocrity was impressive; managed to be below average in every metric, without being truly awful in any of them - a generic backup PF, except he had to start - increasingly relies on shaky midrange jumper - can score on the post with a hook shot, but isn't strong enough to get good position consistently - doesn't get to the free throw line and consistently below average on the boards - defensively, again consistently below average due to not being physical or athletic; no big screw ups, though; he's smart and won't get caught out of position - production expected to go down again; his end isn't too far away - with Battier, Hayes, and Novak ... expect minutes to reduce considerably - he'll be an adequate backup PF; if Rockets need him to start again it's not a good sign John Lucas: - didn't play particularly well in his short stint - despite pass-first reputation, a low assist-ratio - doesn't quite have the jets his Dad did, needs to prove he can consistently hit the perimeter shot and he won't get trampled on defense - played well in the Vegas Summer league, will compete with Spanoulis for rotation spot behind Alston Tracy McGrady: - wasn't himself most nights when he was playing; finished below the norm for him in every category except rebounding - still, playing with a subpar McGrady was better than the alternative - when he's on his game, he's as tough a cover as anyone in the league - fantastic jump shooter, great leaping ability, handles the ball very well - prefers the jumper rather than going to the rim, but he's an excellent finisher - despite all the attention he gets, can create a ton of shots without turning the ball over much - with all the threes and freethrows he can get, if he can shoot at mid to high 40s FG% (like in 2003) he'll be absolutely devastating - defensively has great tools, but hasn't always applied himself; effort level picked up in Houston, but recent back problems makes it difficult for him to chase guards around; and he rarely guards a capable opponent - if the back holds up, should rebound from last year and return to Allstar-caliber play - can he be as effective in April as he is in November? - unfortunately, back problems rarely go away quietly Yao Ming - pass the torch Shaq, Yao is best center in the NBA - he was good all year, but amazing after the Allstar break - what makes the numbers more amazing is he was getting double and triple teamed every game without McGrady, yet still destroying teams inside - ability to shoot at his size is stunning - despite unorthodox release, he has a devastating jumpers; high release means opponents can't bother his jumper, let alone hope to block it - he became a much better defender; not the most nimble guy but adequately defended pick and rolls; great size clogs up the paint - computer projections don't mean much for him, because there aren't many 7'6 centers historically to guage what the trajectory of his career will be like - long term, Rockets should be concerned about Yao playing in the summer - he's the best center now, but if he has to play with China every summer don't expect him to be the best center by the time he's 30 Dikembe Mutombo: - not as good as his first season the Rockets, but still strong shot-blocking and rebounding made him an effective backup - biggest strength is of course shot blocking; but the game is evolving to where the matchups often don't allow him to be on the court - turnover-ratio was terrible last year; illegal screens being a particular problem for him - when he gets the ball down low, he doesn't look to pass, which can often lead to turnovers - despite turning 40 next year, he can still provide quality depth for the team Steve Novak - can play right away thanks to shooting - with deadly shot, doesn't need to contribute in other areas ... a good thing, because he won't - sweet shot should keep in the league for a decade Kirk Snyder: - made the most of his opportunity with the Hornets last season after being castoff from Utah - improved his shot selection, perimeter shooting, and rebounding - turned in middle of the pack performances in all categories; impressive considering what he did his rookie year - however, slumped late in the season and hardly played the last month - Hornets weren't pleased with his defense, though they gave up less points per possession with him on the court - Good size and quickness means he should be good defensively - stay at home defender ... won't get a lot of steals or blocks - versatile offensive players; sometimes can rely to much on perimeter shot instead of going to the rim - Rockets got a huge bargain since he's young and coming off a productive season Vassilis Spanoulis: - Rockets should see dividents with Spanoulis this season - projects to be a quality backup PG, and could take over Alston's spot in starting lineup - most Europeans require a year or two to adjust to NBA three point line - his arrival should give Houston's backcourt a boost after last year's implosion Bonzi Wells: - normally volatile Wells had good behavior last year and posted his best PER since 2002 - easily the best rebounder amongst guards last season based on rebound-rate, and even in top five amongst SF - benefitted from Kings' willingness to run postups for him; a poor outside shooter and free throw shooter resulted in very low scoring efficiency for his position, however - loves to take guards in the block and shooting a high-arching turnaound - good midrange jumper, but shaky accuracy beyond 18 feet - not a great ballhandler and doesn't attack players off the dribble very much; most operates through backdowns - once a fantastic passer, but that part of his game has deteriorated - good at getting steals with fast hands, but one-on-one defense isn't strong since injuries to knees have hurt his lateral movement - this is effectively one year rental -- great for the Rockets, not so much for Bonzi - figures to play a big role (likely a starter), but how will his game fit into the Rockets inside-out approach?
Thanks for posting this durvasa, really helps me get to know some of these guys on an efficiency scale instead of the normal stats. It's getting me really psyched for the season.
