[IMGl]http://espn-att.starwave.com/i/teamlogos/nba/sml/trans/hou.gif[/IMGl]<div align="center"><font size="+2">2004-2005 Season Preview: Houston Rockets</div></font> by Trip 2003-2004 Season In Review- Last season was a key one for the Rockets. After missing out on the playoffs for five seasons, the improved play of star center Yao Ming helped Houston make the playoffs as the seventh seed in the Western Conference. All that had gotten the Rockets, however, was a first round exit against a Laker team that went to the Finals. Although the Rockets? push came up short, the play of guard Steve Francis and forward Jim Jackson were bright spots. Yao, on the other hand, looked lost and unused to the Rockets? style of play. Faced against the best center in the league in Shaquille O?Neal, Yao averaged a mere 15 points per game in the playoffs, a full 2.5 off of his regular season average. 2003-2004 Offseason Review- In the summer, the Rockets administration faced problems that needed to be solved, and they decided to go ahead to make some changes. Tracy McGrady, twice the league?s scoring champion, wanted out of Orlando and labeled Houston as one of his ideal destinations. The Rockets? General Manager, Carroll Dawson, took note and bravely made a run for McGrady. When the smoke cleared, gone was the team?s face for five seasons, Steve Francis, and in came McGrady. As part of the deal, Houston also dealt shooting guard Cuttino Mobley and center Kelvin Cato. Meanwhile, Orlando also sent forward Juwan Howard and guards Tyronn Lue and Reece Gaines to balance out the equation. After acquiring McGrady, the Rockets next looked at the point guard spot. Without any viable options on the trade market, Dawson nabbed two veterans, Charlie Ward and Bob Sura, to help share the minutes at the position. Now that the point guard problem had been solved, the Rockets looked to fill one last position: the center spot. After Kelvin Cato was traded to Orlando, the team was left with Yao as the only true center. Elsewhere in Chicago in the meantime, four-time defensive player of the year Dikembe Mutombo was sulky, and wanted to go to a team with championship hopes. Houston came calling. The Bulls, badly needing some perimeter shooting, was happy with the long-range bomber in Eric Piatkowski whom the Rockets were willing to give up. To balance the deal salary-wise, the Rockets also agreed to ship guards Adrian Griffin and Mike Wilks to Chicago. As the start of training camp looms near, the Rockets have filled basically every hole they had and reached every goal they had. 2004-2005 Keys To The Season- The Rockets have the weapons to be contenders for a top 4 playoffs spot in the West. With Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming capable of scoring 20 points every night, and veterans starters at every other position, Houston now has a very deep team that might very well win it all in the future. Chemistry is their key for this season, as the duo of McGrady and Yao have yet to prove that they can co-exist in a half-court offense, and the production of the bench will play a huge part in Houston?s success next season. Juwan Howard has to prove that he can be a good third scoring option, and the starters at the other two positions have to be ready to put up 10 points any game to be able to take the scoring pressure off the Rockets? big three. The Outlook Yao Ming needs a breakthrough. After spending the past two seasons with point guard Steve Francis, who was more trigger-happy than giving the big guy the ball, Yao lacked touches to be a consistent offensive force. This season, he?ll look to get more. With Steve Francis now in Disneyland, Yao Ming will be the undoubted first option on offense. Even the acquisition of scoring champ Tracy McGrady won?t change that. After coming to Houston, T-Mac has stated many times that he will be willing to give up much of the spotlight to the 7-6 Chinese monster, and play off of him. As the new season draws closer, one thing is clear: Yao Ming?s performance in his third season will make or break the team. Point Guard-" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/bob_sura.jpg"></a>" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/tyronn_lue.jpg"></a> The point guard position for the Rockets received a whole makeover in the offseason. With All-Star Steve Francis sent to the Magic in the McGrady deal, Carroll Dawson looked to the free agency for quality starters. Looking at the players that he has managed to attain, one has to be glad. Charlie Ward is the starter, he himself a player under coach Jeff Van Gundy a few seasons ago, is a veteran whose long-range shooting and unselfishness is perfect for Van Gundy?s half-court set. Bob Sura, a former teammate of Ward?s during their college days, is a big guard who can also drain the three-pointer, defend with hustle, and finish with authority on the break. Rounding off the position is Tyronn Lue, who came over from Orlando in the McGrady deal. Lue, at 6-0, is not a good defender, but what he lacks in height, Lue makes it up with three-point shooting, steady ballhandling, and finishing on the break. Mark Jackson, who joined the team as a free agent last season, is not expected to return. <u>Grade:B+</u> Shooting Guard-" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/tracy_mcgrady.jpg"></a>" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/bob_sura.jpg"></a>" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/reece_gaines.jpg"></a> With the acquisition of Tracy McGrady, the Rockets now have a proven superstar, who is arguably one of the top five players in the league, and a player capable of putting up 30 points for ten straight games. In Houston, however, T-Mac will have to take on the role of secondary scorer, conceding the role of primary option of offense to Yao Ming. He?s fine with it though, having anticipated it before he came to Houston. With McGrady projected to be playing more than 40 minutes a game, there is no real need for a backup who demands 20 minutes per game. Thus, Reece Gaines should be a perfect fit. The second-year player is not truly ready for the NBA game, and serving as backup to a future Hall-of-Famer and playing under a quality head coach will help his development. In case of injury, Bob Sura will also be available to slide over and start. <u>Grade: A</u> Small Forward-" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/bostjan_nachbar.jpg"></a>" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/scott_padgett.jpg"></a> When the Rockets signed free agent journeyman Jim Jackson, they thought they would be getting a solid role player to complement All-Stars Steve Francis and Yao Ming. What they got instead was a key part of the team?s success last season, and one of the most consistent players all season. The Rockets were so impressed with Jackson that they did not even seek any insurance for the aging veteran in the offseason. Not that they should have. Jackson, despite turning 34 at the start of the last season, was in the best shape of his career, playing in all 82 games and averaging 12 points per game. He also proved himself as an efficient three-point shooter, shooting 40% from beyond the arc to finish sixth in the league overall in three-pointers made. Bostjan Nachbar, a sweet-shooting European third-year player, will be Jackson?s primary backup. Although he is inconsistent, Nachbar has good size at 6-9, and a good outside stroke. Veteran Scott Padgett was re-signed and will be expected to get some minutes at the three with his consistent outside shot. <u>Grade: B</u> Power Forward-" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/juwan_howard.jpg"></a>" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/maurice_taylor.jpg"></a>" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/scott_padgett"></a> In Juwan Howard came to Houston as part of the McGrady deal, the power forward position, the weakest spot on the team last year, suddenly turned into one of the team?s strong spots. Howard, long-maligned as an overpaid player, is still a very good role scorer, and an able rebounder. He will provide the scorer down in the post alongside Yao that has been sorely lacked. Howard is also a solid defender, perfect for Van Gundy?s strategy. Maurice Taylor will spell Howard off the bench. As a pure scorer off the bench, Taylor averaged 11 points last season and was named as a candidate for the sixth man award. This season, Mo will look to do more of the same as the scorer off the bench for Van Gundy?s team. The downside of his game is that he cannot play defense, and is not a good rebounder. Apart from these deficiencies, Taylor is a very good piece to have on a team. Scott Padgett is a natural power forward, but will not be expected to see much time with Howard and Taylor splitting minutes at the position. <u>Grade: B+</u> Center-" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/dikembe_mutombo.jpg"></a>" target="_blank">http://www.nba.com/media/playerfile/claren...therspoon.jpg"></a> Yao Ming is the Next Big Thing in the NBA. With 1.3 billion people backing him up in China, Yao will enjoy the benefits of playing alongside a true scoring monster in Tracy McGrady. This season, we will most likely see Yao Ming getting at least 50 touches a game, and the Rockets? offense will revolve around him. Yao has a sweet shooting touch and has the unteachable height to be a good rebounder and shot-blocker. If Yao can work on his conditioning and be alright be play 35 minutes each night without draining his energy, there is no telling how high he can soar. Just in case Yao doesn?t have enough stamina to last that long, the Rockets brought in 7-2 center Dikembe Mutombo. Despite being 37, the four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year is still a very good shot-blocker and rebounder, and will be counted upon to be a force on defense and a mentor to the developing Yao. Clarence Weatherspoon, despite being a mere 6-7, has the size to play center, but unless injuries occur, he will find it hard to get minutes in the deep Rockets frontcourt. <u>Grade: A+</u> 2004-2005 Projected Team MVP- Yao Ming 2004-2005 Projected Team Record- 52-30, second place in Southwest division In the strengthened Western Conference, the Rockets might find it hard this season to carve out a niche as a contending power. The biggest question mark in the team is whether McGrady and Yao will co-exist, and the outcome of the it question will determine how good the Rockets will be. Chances are that the duo would work very well, and the Rockets would establish themselves as contenders for the Western Conference crown. The team will most likely finish with a record of around 50 wins, good for a fourth to sixth in the playoffs, and a second-round exit.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting notMuchgame:</div><div class="quote_post">http://www.justbball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25519</div> Trip, you did a good job with the preview. My main concerns are with the team are PG and SF positions. JJ was solid last year, but who knows if he can give us a similar year. I don't find the PG trio or Nachbar/Padgett particularly impressive. I'm glad we can get consistent scoring at the 4 position, but I'm worried Howard/Taylor might be a bit too soft playing against the likes of Duncan/KG/K-mart/Boozer/Magloire/Malone. And if Yao gets injured for a lot of games, how can we possibly adjust with the current roster? Mutombo probably can't play more than 25 minutes a game, and we don't have anyone else who can play center for significant minutes. I think we'll be better than last year, but I don't know if we can break 50 wins. I'll predict 49 wins for our team.
Great team here can't wait to see how they do Tracy McGrady is gonna have to be a little bit more accurate, esp. from the 3, if he wants to avg 20+ppg because his attempts this year are gonna go down A LOT from last year's (FGAs: #2 in the NBA with 1,566/ 3PTAs: #4 in the NBA with 513). I won't be suprised if he goes under 1,000 FGAs and under 400 in 3PTAs this season. I say he avgs 18ppg if he doesn't improve his shot from last season, 24ppg if he does. Unless your a T-Mac fan though this isn't necessarly a bad thing because T-Mac will be passing the ball to the best scoring option and the Rockets have a line up that will go deep into the playoffs. Yao Ming is gonna make Shaq proud
I think T-Mac will lead the team in scoring with around 25 points per game. Yao will get maybe 19 ppg.
How the hell, the offense is gonna run through Yao not T-Mac. T-Mac would have to greatly increase his accuracy for that to happen or shoot only 3PTers. Don't think T-Mac is gonna put up those big PPGs like last couple of seasons. It took him a lot of shots to reach 28ppg and 32ppg. Heck, anyone can score 28ppg with enough shots. That ain't nothing special. Doing it without having to take many shots (landing most of your attempts), that's the hard part.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting heatfan83:</div><div class="quote_post">How the hell, the offense is gonna run through Yao not T-Mac. T-Mac would have to greatly increase his accuracy for that to happen or shoot only 3PTers. Don't think T-Mac is gonna put up those big PPGs like last couple of seasons. It took him a lot of shots to reach 28ppg and 32ppg. Heck, anyone can score 28ppg with enough shots. That ain't nothing special. Doing it without having to take many shots (landing most of your attempts), that's the hard part.</div> I think T-Mac will put up over 20 a game easily. Keep in mind he's going to be taking up the shot attempts lost by Mobley and Francis, granted their shots will be distributed amongst other players as well. I see McGrady taking somewhere between 18-22 shots per game, and averaging somewhere between 22-26 ppg. I agree that the offense will center around Yao (as it should), however, that doesn't neccessarily mean Yao will take the most shots. For instance, most of us can agree that the Laker offense has run through Shaq all these years, yet Kobe has led the team in scoring and shot attemps each of the past two years. Yao will be the Rockets guy, but McGrady will lead them in scoring IMO
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting notMuchgame:</div><div class="quote_post">I think T-Mac will put up over 20 a game easily. Keep in mind he's going to be taking up the shot attempts lost by Mobley and Francis, granted their shots will be distributed amongst other players as well. I see McGrady taking somewhere between 18-22 shots per game, and averaging somewhere between 22-26 ppg. I agree that the offense will center around Yao (as it should), however, that doesn't neccessarily mean Yao will take the most shots. For instance, most of us can agree that the Laker offense has run through Shaq all these years, yet Kobe has led the team in scoring and shot attemps each of the past two years. Yao will be the Rockets guy, but McGrady will lead them in scoring IMO</div>I agree. I can see him going 22-26ppg as well if he does take more shots than one player should. He is also their second best scoring option and if he can increase his 3PT accuracy he won't have to take many attempts and still go 22-26ppg with out taking away shots (and eventually points) from the team. But if T-Mac leads in scoring, then it would not be good because it means he eventually lost a lot more points had he been more accurate or distributed the ball more. The ends (ex: 22ppg) would not justify the means (ex: 60ppg in attempts). As for the Kobe comparison it's not a good example to prove your point because as Shaq's attempts started going down the Lakers started losing. And the last season the Lakers shared the ball more and it got them far but in the Finals the primary option, Kobe, was going 38%-FG/17%-3PT and Shaq, the secondary option, was going 63%-FG. As you can imagine, the Lakers lost out on a lot of points by not making Shaq the primary option.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting heatfan83:</div><div class="quote_post"> As for the Kobe comparison it's not a great way to prove a point because as Shaq's attempts started going down the Lakers started losing. And the last season the Lakers shared the ball more and it got them far but in the Finals the primary option, Kobe, was going 38%-FG/17%-3PT and Shaq, the secondary option, was going 63%-FG. As you can imagine, the Lakers lost out on a lot of points by not making Shaq the primary option.</div> I think you missed my point entirely. My point (and only point) was that just because the offense is run through a certain player (i.e. Yao), it doesn't neccessarily mean he will lead the team in scoring and/or shot attempts. I used the Lakers as a prime example of this. The Lakers ran their offense through Shaq, but Kobe lead the team in scoring and shot attempts just about every season. I suspect that is how it will be in Houston as well. I never said anything about that leading to an NBA championship for the Rockets.
If McGrady averages more points then Yao...McGrady will be gone in the offseason. Van Gundy wants Yao to get most of the touches. Steve Francis didnt keep giving the ball to Yao which is why Steve is gone. Van Gundy has no problem sitting a player on the bench for not listening to him. And definetely doesnt have a problem with trading them. McGrady better learn his role as a secondary option otherwise there will be problems for him.
TMac's gonna get fewer shots, but they're going to be easier than the shots he took in Orlando where he got constant double teams. Yao will take pressure off him and his FG% should go up.
The Rockets are going to be exciting to watch this season with T-mac and Yao running the show but their weak point guard position is going to stop them from going deep. They basically have 3 back-up point guards and If they want to go deep into the playoffs they will need to have a quailty point guard running the offense. You only have to look at the main championship contenders in the west at PG. You have Sam Cassell, Tony Parker, Mike Bibby and you also have Jason Terry with Dallas, Andre Miller with Denver who could easily contend for homecourt this year. JT is the one name people will have doubts about due to the fact he isn't known as pure point guard but he is certainly a quailty guard to have on your team. Infact all the teams expecting to make the playoffs this year have quailty point guards running the offense. In total you have Tony Parker Sam Cassell Mike Bibby Jason Terry Andre Miller Jason Williams Steve Nash Carlos Arroyo All those guys are quailty PG's If the Rockets had signed a guy like Brent Barry othen they would be in great shape. Due to the fact Bones can run the offense, pass the ball, rebounding and hit the open shot.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post">Trip, you did a good job with the preview. </div>Thank you, I try. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">My main concerns are with the team are PG and SF positions. JJ was solid last year, but who knows if he can give us a similar year. I don't find the PG trio or Nachbar/Padgett particularly impressive. </div>Well, I'm not too confident about those contributions as well, but looking around the NBA, you'll find that there really isn't one small forward whom Jackson can't guard, and there is not many who can play with the consistency that Jackson does. The point guard trio might not be the cream of the crop, but on a team where all they do is bring the ball up and pass it off, it'd be sufficient. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I'm glad we can get consistent scoring at the 4 position, but I'm worried Howard/Taylor might be a bit too soft playing against the likes of Duncan/KG/K-mart/Boozer/Magloire/Malone. </div>Well, both Taylor and Howard are not really bangers down low, but they are an improvement on offense over Cato. While they can't back the stronger players down, they are both savvy veterans and can hit the mid-range shot. Besides, when Yao's down low, why do we need them in there? <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">And if Yao gets injured for a lot of games, how can we possibly adjust with the current roster? Mutombo probably can't play more than 25 minutes a game, and we don't have anyone else who can play center for significant minutes. </div>Hopefully, Yao wouldn't break down. He hasn't missed a game in the past two seasons, so we're probably banking on him having another 82-game season. If he does get injured though, I guess we'll have to make do with Mutombo. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I think we'll be better than last year, but I don't know if we can break 50 wins. I'll predict 49 wins for our team.</div>A specific number of wins does not bother me. I think that our season will be considered as a triumphant one if we finish 2nd in the division and get a top 6 finish in the West.
Frankly, I don't see a huge problem with the Rockets' point guard trio. The Lakers with Shaq/Kobe won three straight championships, and two of those were won with Derek Fisher and Tyron Lue manning the point. Basically, all those two had to do was to bring the ball upcourt and pass it off to one of Shaq and Kobe, and then just stay on the perimeter to look for the open shot. I expect the trio's jobs to be the same. Ward and Sura are stellar defenders, and including Lue, can all shoot 35% or above from the three-point line. They won't be called upon to drive into the lane or make every big play, all they have to do is play a role. Besides, the Lakers now have Chucky Atkins starting at point guard, yet they are not really rubbed off as contenders yet...
The lakers had Derek Fisher, who is at least servicable, and would knock down any shot given to him. Ward and Lue, has got to be the worst PG rotation. Ward can hit the three, but running an offense is not his speciallity. Lue can sometimes play good offense, but he cant play defense or run an offense.
<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Ward can hit the three, but running an offense is not his speciallity. Lue can sometimes play good offense, but he cant play defense or run an offense.</div>How can't Ward run an offense? With him at the helm, the Knicks went to the Finals in 2000. Did you see how Lue shut Iverson down in the Finals in 2001? These two guys, IMO, are sufficient to run a team like ours.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Tribute to H2O:</div><div class="quote_post">If McGrady averages more points then Yao...McGrady will be gone in the offseason. Van Gundy wants Yao to get most of the touches. Steve Francis didnt keep giving the ball to Yao which is why Steve is gone. Van Gundy has no problem sitting a player on the bench for not listening to him. And definetely doesnt have a problem with trading them. McGrady better learn his role as a secondary option otherwise there will be problems for him.</div> Francis was gone because he didnt get along with Van Gundy and hated the system. The final straw was really his missing the team flight when he went to the superbowl. Van Gundy loves T-Mac. The big difference is Francis didnt want to play with Yao, he had to play with him, T-Mac wanted to play with Yao. Houston was his first choice when he asked for a trade. This is going to work out perfectly, I dont see T-Mac averaging more points than Yao throughout the season. I see him getting a massive amount of assists and I see him finding Yao at every possible point. T-Mac is going to make a huge impact on Yao's game. Hes going to average over 20, but so is Yao. As always the power forward is going to be in the mid teens, the small forward with Jim Jackson is going to be erradic in terms of scoring. Im thinking 15 points a game, with nights where he breaks out for over 20. The only person Im worried about is Bobby Sura, great defender, hes a rebounding guard like Francis, but like Francis hes a turnover in the making. If he can cut down on the turnovers hes going to be extremely effective in Houston. The fact that hes a tenacious defender makes him Van Gundy's kind of guard. Ward is going to bring veteran leadership to the guard spot. Last year I thought Francis was a little trigger happy and antsy in the playoffs, Ward is going to bring that calm. Tyronn Lue is a firecracker, he'll pop up a three, drive in the lane and get in your face on defense. The Rockets are going to be good this year, if Yao can conserve his energy better, and with Dikembe backing him up he will, the Rockets are going to be a force to be reckoned with.
Great post chineseafro, I agree with a lot of the things you brought up. The only part I felt that you were wrong in was the part about Jim Jackson's erratic scoring. If I don't remember wrong, he was not the most inconsistent player, in fact the most consistent. Compared to Yao and Francis, Jackson was a lock for at least 10 points and 40 minutes of die-hard defense last season.
