Using very important efficiency ratings, Real Player Ratings, and Real Player Production for the Rockets and the Nuggets, we can begin to prepare ourselves for a possible playoff series between the two teams in round one of the NBA Championship next month. Also, this is a great preview for tonight’s Rockets-Nuggets game. OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY Rockets 15th in offensive efficiency in the NBA, 108.4 points per 100 possessions. Nuggets 11th in offensive efficiency in the NBA, 109.0 points per 100 possessions. Rockets 5th in defensive efficiency in the NBA, 104.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. Nuggets 11th defensive efficiency in the NBA, 106.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. For the player ratings, first we will look at the ratings separately by team and then we will combine both teams to see how the players stack up even more clearly. QUICK USER GUIDE NOTES THAT APPLY TO THIS COMPARISON OF TEAMS: 1. Players who have been traded away have been removed. 2. Players who have been lost for the season due to injury have been removed. 3. Players who were acquired by trade are included; their ratings are from playing on their previous teams. COMPLETE USER GUIDE For complete details about how and why the Ratings work, and for very detailed information about how Real Team Ratings were developed and are calculated, please consult the <a href="http://nuggets1reference.blogspot.com/2009/01/real-team-ratings-user-guide.html"target="_blank">USER GUIDE</a> ROCKETS = NUGGETS MATCHUP WITH RATINGS SHOWN BY TEAM HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS Quality of Players 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON AS OF FEB. 20 2009 ROCKETS Yao Ming 1.008 Ron Artest 0.765 Luis Scola 0.716 Carl Landry 0.695 Kyle Lowry 0.591 Aaron Brooks 0.582 Von Wafer 0.580 Shane Battier 0.524 Brent Barry 0.503 Chuck Hayes 0.429 NUGGETS Nene Hilario 0.864 Carmelo Anthony 0.860 Chauncey Billups† 0.859 Chris Andersen 0.755 J.R. Smith 0.749 Kenyon Martin 0.724 Renaldo Balkman 0.716 Anthony Carter 0.652 Linas Kleiza 0.558 Dahntay Jones 0.424 SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS Perfect Player? Is there Such a Thing? 1.000 and more Historic Super Star 0.950 and more Super Star 0.850 0.949 A Star Player; An Extremely Good Starter 0.775 0.849 A Great Player; A Solid Starter 0.700 0.774 Major Role Player 0.650 0.699 Role Player 0.600 0.649 Minor Role Player 0.550 0.599 Very Minor Role Player 0.500 0.549 Poor Player at This Time 0.450 0.499 Very Poor Player at This Time 0.350 0.449 Extremely Poor Player at This Time / Disaster and less 0.349 HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION Quantity of Players 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON AS OF FEB. 20 2009 ROCKETS Yao Ming 1453.20 Luis Scola 1064.25 Ron Artest 890.00 Carl Landry 723.85 Aaron Brooks 621.70 Kyle Lowry 621.65 Shane Battier 464.65 Von Wafer 402.40 Brent Barry 273.15 Chuck Hayes 228.30 NUGGETS Chauncey Billups† 1322.40 Nene Hilario 1303.00 Kenyon Martin 1050.05 Carmelo Anthony 1034.90 J.R. Smith 919.45 Anthony Carter 765.75 Linas Kleiza 668.90 Chris Andersen 584.40 Dahntay Jones 379.50 Renaldo Balkman 267.65 ===========SUB RATINGS=============== HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS DEFENDING SUB RATINGS Tracked and Hidden Defending 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON AS OF FEB. 20 2009 ROCKETS Yao Ming 0.564 Ron Artest 0.481 Chuck Hayes 0.355 Shane Battier 0.338 Brent Barry 0.304 Luis Scola 0.296 Carl Landry 0.252 Aaron Brooks 0.187 Kyle Lowry 0.177 Von Wafer 0.163 NUGGETS Nene Hilario 0.493 Chris Andersen 0.431 Kenyon Martin 0.415 J.R. Smith 0.409 Renaldo Balkman 0.379 Carmelo Anthony 0.362 Anthony Carter 0.329 Chauncey Billups† 0.293 Linas Kleiza 0.201 Dahntay Jones 0.195 HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS OFFENSE SUB RATINGS All Tracked Offensive Actions 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON AS OF FEB. 20 2009 ROCKETS Yao Ming 0.872 Luis Scola 0.683 Carl Landry 0.643 Ron Artest 0.632 Von Wafer 0.575 Aaron Brooks 0.526 Shane Battier 0.456 Kyle Lowry 0.424 Brent Barry 0.418 Chuck Hayes 0.374 NUGGETS Chauncey Billups† 0.645 Carmelo Anthony 0.574 Nene Hilario 0.483 J.R. Smith 0.451 Renaldo Balkman 0.412 Anthony Carter 0.398 Linas Kleiza 0.383 Kenyon Martin 0.380 Chris Andersen 0.360 Dahntay Jones 0.282 ================================================ ROCKETS = NUGGETS MATCHUP WITH COMBINED SORTS HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS Quality of Players 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON Through Feb. 20 2009 Yao Ming Houston 1.008 Nene Hilario Denver 0.864 Carmelo Anthony Denver 0.860 Chauncey Billups Denver 0.859 Ron Artest Houston 0.765 Chris Andersen Denver 0.755 J.R. Smith Denver 0.749 Kenyon Martin Denver 0.724 Renaldo Balkman Denver 0.716 Luis Scola Houston 0.716 Carl Landry Houston 0.695 Anthony Carter Denver 0.652 Kyle Lowry Houston 0.591 Aaron Brooks Houston 0.582 Von Wafer Houston 0.580 Linas Kleiza Denver 0.558 Shane Battier Houston 0.524 Brent Barry Houston 0.503 Chuck Hayes Houston 0.429 Dahntay Jones Denver 0.424 SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS Perfect Player? Is there Such a Thing? 1.000 and more Historic Super Star 0.950 and more Super Star 0.850 0.949 A Star Player; An Extremely Good Starter 0.775 0.849 A Great Player; A Solid Starter 0.700 0.774 Major Role Player 0.650 0.699 Role Player 0.600 0.649 Minor Role Player 0.550 0.599 Very Minor Role Player 0.500 0.549 Poor Player at This Time 0.450 0.499 Very Poor Player at This Time 0.350 0.449 Extremely Poor Player at This Time / Disaster and less 0.349 HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION Quantity of Players 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON Through Feb. 20 2009 Yao Ming Houston 1453.20 Chauncey Billups Denver 1322.40 Nene Hilario Denver 1303.00 Luis Scola Houston 1064.25 Kenyon Martin Denver 1050.05 Carmelo Anthony Denver 1034.90 J.R. Smith Denver 919.45 Ron Artest Houston 890.00 Anthony Carter Denver 765.75 Carl Landry Houston 723.85 Linas Kleiza Denver 668.90 Aaron Brooks Houston 621.70 Kyle Lowry Houston 621.65 Chris Andersen Denver 584.40 Shane Battier Houston 464.65 Von Wafer Houston 402.40 Dahntay Jones Denver 379.50 Brent Barry Houston 273.15 Renaldo Balkman Denver 267.65 Chuck Hayes Houston 228.30 ====================================== ROCKETS VS NUGGETS SUMMARY IN TERMS OF REAL PLAYER RATING SCALE CATEGORIES HISTORIC SUPERSTARS Yao Ming, Rockets 1.008 SUPERSTARS Nene Hilario Denver 0.864 Carmelo Anthony Denver 0.860 Chauncey Billups Denver 0.859 STARS None on either team OUTSTANDING / SOLID STARTERS Ron Artest Houston 0.765 Chris Andersen Denver 0.755 J.R. Smith Denver 0.749 Kenyon Martin Denver 0.724 Renaldo Balkman Denver 0.716 Luis Scola Houston 0.716 MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS Carl Landry Houston 0.695 Anthony Carter Denver 0.652 ROLE PLAYERS None on either team MINOR ROLE PLAYERS Kyle Lowry Houston 0.591 Aaron Brooks Houston 0.582 Von Wafer Houston 0.580 Linas Kleiza Denver 0.558 VERY MINOR ROLE PLAYERS Shane Battier Houston 0.524 Brent Barry Houston 0.503 POOR PLAYERS Chuck Hayes Houston 0.429 Dahntay Jones Denver 0.424 NOTES ABOUT THE ROCKETS—NUGGETS MATCHUP Carmelo Anthony is improved from a month ago, which slightly increases the Nuggets chance of winning a playoff series against anyone. On the other hand, Linas Kleiza is really starting to have a miserable year now, and J.R. Smith has become even more inconsistent than he was last year, something that would have been regarded as absurd if you did not see it with your own eyes. The Houston Rockets are one of the more likely possible matchups for the Nuggets in the playoffs. Very significantly, if the Nuggets play the Rockets, they could possibly win it now, due to the Rockets loss of their second best player, Tracy McGrady, due to an injury. It's not out of the question anymore, but the odds remain against it. Also, the Rockets are going with Aaron Brooks at PG now that Rafer Alston is traded to the Magic. Brooks has rated only as a minor role player so far. Although he will undoubtedly rise to at least role player, Alston was the better bet for the Rockets for the playoffs. Despite the above, I am as of now still predicting a Rockets win over the Nuggets in the playoffs, should they meet. If forced to predict the result in games, I would say Rockets 4 Nuggets 2, but I would be just surprised somewhat and not shocked at Rockets 4 Nuggets 3. Let's check how the Nuggets' ratings have changed in the last month: DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON Through Jan. 15 2009 Chauncey Billups 0.909 Nene Hilario 0.845 Renaldo Balkman 0.830 Carmelo Anthony 0.821 J.R. Smith 0.787 Chris Andersen 0.763 Kenyon Martin 0.744 Anthony Carter 0.637 Linas Kleiza 0.552 Dahntay Jones 0.455 DENVER NUGGETS REAL PLAYER RATINGS 2008-09 REGULAR SEASON Through Feb. 20 2009 Nene Hilario 0.864 Carmelo Anthony 0.860 Chauncey Billups 0.859 Chris Andersen 0.755 J.R. Smith 0.749 Kenyon Martin 0.724 Renaldo Balkman 0.716 Anthony Carter 0.652 Linas Kleiza 0.558 Dahntay Jones 0.424 With Carmelo Anthony improved and with a truly startling number of quality players showing up in the Nuggets ratings, with eight players who are major role players or better, it may be time to start considering the Nuggets more seriously. Not me yet, but maybe you. What I need to consider the Nuggets seriously for the playoffs is a change at 2-guard. Were J.R. Smith to start and were Dahntay Jones' minutes be reduced substantially, the Nuggets could possibly defeat the Rockets now that Tracy McGrady and Rafer Alston are gone. The Rockets advantage would be reduced to a very small amount, and who won would be mostly based on playoff experience and coaching. Whoever played better and smarter would win a probably close series. I would still say Rockets but would not be shocked if the Nuggets won in this matchup. But with Dahntay Jones playing a lot of minutes, and J.R. Smith still relegated to a "black sheep type role", the Rockets remain favored, although not by anywhere near as much as they were when they had Rafer Alston and especially Tracy McGrady.
I just noticed that if you look closely, the Rockets' offensive sub ratings are better than the Nuggets' by more than the Nuggets' defending sub ratings are better than the Rockets.' This is a clue I think that the Nuggets can not in fact defeat the Rockets in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Rockets are playing it risky with Aaron Brooks as PG and just Lowry as a backup. Although most likely no team in my life time will ever be as lost at PG as the Nuggets were last April, the Rockets can not exactly rest easy regarding their PG situation for the playoffs yet.
