i don't see any reason to speculate that tmac will come back at a high level. he was pathetic last season and is less than a year off of his microfracture surgery that is supposed to take two years to really get your athleticism back.
All reports suggest he's looking and feeling better right now than he did at any point last season. I think he'll be a much better player than he was a year ago, but maybe I'm just optimistic.
Hard to factor in McGrady at this point because of his unpredictable health. If he can play like he did two seasons ago and play 60 games maybe he's good for 5 or 6 wins? The Rockets are resilient team and have shown they can win without Yao & McGrady, but I'm not sure they have the scoring depth this season to pull it off. The bottom of the pack out West have probably closed the gap from last season with Oklahoma City, LA Clippers (if healthy) and Phoenix all improving this offseason.
without one of yao or tmac but not with both missing, unless you're talking about two playoff games the lakers didn't show up to.
I think about 45. They're toothless on offense, but they have a lot of scrappy guys and play solid defense.