How the Cavs compare: Toronto Raptors

bbwchingy0007 · Sep 27, 2008

Cavalier Attitude said:

In the third installment of “How the Cavs Compare,” we will be taking a look at yet another team that went out and made a splash this off-season: The Toronto Raptors.

Toronto had a slight drop-off from their 47-35 Atlantic Division winning record of 2006-07 with a .500 showing in ‘07-08. Most of this can probably be attributed to the drastic overhaul of the Boston Celtics and the progression of the 76ers. They were still able to make the playoffs, however, but made a second consecutive first round exit - this time at the hands of the Orlando Magic.

How will they fare in what looks to be a very tough Atlantic division this season, and more importantly, how do they match up with the Cleveland Cavaliers?

After their second season of leaving the playoffs unfulfilled, Bryan Colangelo and the Toronto Raptors set out to separate themselves this off-season. The most important step in this process had to be the June trade of T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston, and the 17th pick (Roy Hibbert) to Indiana for Jermaine O’Neal and the 41st pick (Nathan Jawai). This was important for Toronto as they were able to add significant production to their interior without giving away a core player in return.

On the Indiana side of the deal, the Raptors had to give up very little production for the 2008-2009 season. With Jose Calderon emerging as an All-Star PG in the NBA, the oft-injured T.J. Ford became expendable. Baston only averaged about seven minutes per game last season and was inconsequential to this team in 08-09. Nesterovic was used to balance the contracts, and as he continues to age, his 20 minutes, eight points, and five rebounds per game will continue to diminish.

For the Raptors, the addition of O’Neal could be just what the doctor ordered for a team that has had a great deal of trouble defensively in the post-season. Although they ranked just one spot below the Cavaliers in team defense during the regular season, the Raptors gave up over 100 points per game in their 5 game loss to the Magic. O’Neal will solidify the interior defense next to Bosh and take pressure off of the perimeter defense. O’Neal has averaged nine rebounds and two blocks in seven out of the last eight seasons and should be able to get back to form playing next to one of the game’s best post players in superstar Chris Bosh.

Another asset that O’Neal brings to the table is his post scoring ability. Outside of Bosh, the Raptors did not have another big-time scorer last season. Sure, they have a couple of guys who consistently put up 10-12 points a game, but the addition of O’Neal adds a second 20-point threat and should open up the offense for the Raptors backcourt. It will be interesting to see how the Raptors will take advantage of such a dominant front court duo.

The only problem for the Raptors is that the knock on O’Neal lately has been his health. He has only averaged 50 games over the last five seasons and is about to start his 13th NBA season. Although he might have the stress and experience of a 33-year old, O’Neal has still yet to turn 30 and is in the prime of his career. Just like what I wrote about Elton Brand, being in his prime and moving to a new and more exciting situation will surely make it easier for O’Neal to stay healthier and more involved. This front court would be really unstoppable if he was able to get back to his mid 20’s numbers of 20 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast, and 2 blks.

The final part of the trade, the swapping of the draft picks, was basically a trade of polish and potential. Hibbert, a four year player at Georgetown, returned to school after his junior season only to see his draft stock suffer throughout his final year. Eventually he was taken 17th overall mainly due mainly to his 7′2″ height and effective post skills. Jawai on the other hand is a bit undersized for a center at 6′10″, but he makes up for that with his extra long wingspan and athleticism. Unlike Hibbert, who is approaching his peak, this Australian native is relatively new to the game and has a huge upside in the post.

So now that we know what they have, let’s take a look at how it will all work and how they matchup with Cleveland. As far as the roster is concerned, the Raptors will probably look something like this:

Raptors:
PG-Jose Calderon
SG-Anthony Parker
SF-Jamario Moon/Andrea Bargnani
PF-Chris Bosh
C-Jermaine O’Neal
Bench
Jamario Moon/Andrea Bargnani
Jason Kapono
Joey Graham
Kris Humphries

Cavs:
PG-Mo Williams
SG-Sasha Pavlovic/Delonte West
SF-LeBron James
PF-Ben Wallace
C-Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Bench
C-Anderson Varejao
G-Pavlovic/West
G-Gibson
F-Hickson

The first thing that jumps out at me between these two teams is the similarity in style. Last season, for instance, they both ranked 22nd in the NBA in a stat called pace factor. Basically, they are both slow-it-down, traditional-style basketball teams. I expect the Raptors to favor this style even more this season with T.J. Ford out of the picture and even more strength and production inserted into the post. In order to get O’Neal and Bosh involved consistently, this offense will do a lot of walking the ball up the floor.

Defensively, these two teams were also pretty similar last season. The Cavs ranked 9th - with 96 ppg - while the Raptors ranked 10th - with 97 ppg - in scoring defense. As I mentioned earlier, the increased size and strength in the post along with the added defensive presence of O’Neal the Raptors defense can only improve this season. Their main problem last season was the complete lack of defense in the playoffs, however. Allowing over 100 ppg is not going to get you very far in the playoffs, and that is something that also should also be greatly improved with O’Neal added as another interior enforcer-type player.

Looking more closely, the matchup between these teams gets even more interesting. The Raptors production lies primarily in the post with other solid players filling in. The Cavs on the other hand score most of their points from the outside. LeBron gets to the basket a ton, but the majority of it is initiated from the perimeter. Even Z scores most of his points on jumpers, not to mention the jump shooting from West, Wally, Sasha, Boobie, and Mo Williams.

This should pose a bigger problem for the Raptors than the Cavs, primarily because Z/Hickson and Wallace/Varejao should matchup fairly nicely with Bosh and O’Neal, respectively. Bosh is more of a finesse and rangy big men similar to Z, although certainly better in the post. O’Neal is more the banger type, and although I know that the Cavs’ front court cannot score with Toronto’s, I am fairly confident they can defend them pretty well.

Although Wallace is definitely a step slower in his advancing age, he still has the ability to defend effectively in the post. Varejao’s high energy and effort should be enough to spell Big Ben against O’Neal. Those two cannot be stopped, but the depth of the Cavs front court should be able to contain them enough to make up for some of the offensive deficit.

At the guard spots, the two teams are extremely similar. Calderon and Williams are similar in production, but the edge goes to Calderon because of his effeciency and size advantage. Calderon averaged more assists and shot a higher percentage, albeit he also scored considerably less last season in comparable minutes, 30 vs. 36 mpg. The shoot guards are even more similar. Wally, West and Sasha all put up very similar numbers to Parker last season and should be able to again this season.

As with most other teams in the league, the big difference between the Raptors and the Cavs is depth and LeBron James. LBJ’s production advantage at the 3 is more than enough to make up for the lack of front court offense. Unless Bargnani really comes into his own and starts to play like a number one overall pick, i.e. 20+ points per game, the Raptors don’t have what it takes to knock off the Cavs when it comes playoff time. The similar styles that they play give a distinct advantage to the Cavs with the take-over ability of LeBron magnified in a slow-down game.

Therefore, I think these teams could potentially have similar records in the regular season around 50 wins each even, but come playoff time, unlike the Magic, the Raptors are not quick capable of pushing the Cavs to the limit. Look for a playoff series between the two to be similar to the Wizards series from last year. Very physical, very hard fought and but not as close as the six games it lasts will suggest.
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bbwchingy0007 · Sep 27, 2008

They pretty much hit the nail on the head with this, it's a really good series or articles. I can't wait for the next one: the Pistons.

BasX · Sep 27, 2008

Good Article. Playoff wise we'll wait and see, but well written.

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How the Cavs compare: Toronto Raptors

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How the Cavs compare: Toronto Raptors

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BasX I Win

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