Bryant breakdown: Scouting Kobe after knee surgery Insider Thorpe By David Thorpe ESPN.com Archive Editor's note: We asked David Thorpe, a new member of our Scouts Inc. team, to provide a scouting breakdown of Kobe Bryant as the Lakers guard returns from knee surgery. I will go into some depth here, but to save you time, here's the final tally: Kobe Bryant is the best offensive player on the planet. He can carry a team's offense, is capable of providing almost any ingredient necessary to a system's success and is the best at creating a shot when the system breaks down. Bryant presents numerous challenges to the opponent guarding him and the other four defenders. In contrast to other NBA players who are very effective scorers or creators in certain ways but are merely average in other areas, Bryant can hurt a defense in many ways. While I would not expect another 81-point outburst, high-scoring games by Bryant are inevitable. Paint touches Bryant is most dangerous attacking the basket -- he is shooting 60.2 percent so far this season on "close" shots (not counting dunks), according to 82games.com. This production on "close" shots compares favorably with two other great finishers, Dwyane Wade (60.3 percent) and Vince Carter (59.7 percent). Last season, Bryant (54.9 percent) and Wade (55.2 percent) finished in nearly a dead heat, with Carter trailing (47.1 percent). To my eyes, Bryant is the best finisher in the world. There is no one direction to force him, as he is capable of finishing with either hand and can jump effectively off either foot, or both. He frequently finishes in a spectacular manner. He is only finishing 75 percent of his dunks, however, suggesting that he is still learning the range of his explosiveness, much like Amare Stoudemire. Often, it takes a full year to determine the full effects of knee surgery on athleticism. At least one expert thinks Bryant will never quite be the same. Earlier this month, Lakers coach Phil Jackson said, "He's going to return to a position where he's going to dazzle and be remarkable in some things out there, but he's never going to be 100% with that knee again." While that might be, he showed very good hang time in the games I studied, and showed signs that he might eventually have close to a full recovery. This season, Bryant is pulling up for fewer jump shots and seems more determined to go inside, where he is getting 29 percent of his shots -- as opposed to only 21 percent last season, when an amazing 79 percent of his shots were jumpers. This determination to drive is impressive in light of the condition of his right knee, which is still improving. Bryant gets to the basket in myriad ways: He can beat his defender with hesitation moves off the dribble, inside-out or crossover dribbles, triple-threat drives and post-ups. Few other, if any, NBA players have such a wide array of choices. Bryant will post up smaller players and use his easy turnaround jumper, often turning toward the baseline. The defender must guard against trying to block it, as Bryant will sense the attempt and simply pivot again towards the baseline, getting an angle directly to the rim. This is a move that was used frequently by Michael Jordan. In fact, trying to block his shot inside the paint is not a good idea. He can use teardrops, runners or floaters to get his shot off. It is better to work at cutting his angles off and blocking him out after he releases his shot. Most defenders fail at this disciplined approach, as Bryant always is among the league leaders in free throws per shot attempt. Without the ball in his hands, Bryant is not as dangerous as some other players. Only 31 percent of his "close" baskets come on Lakers assists. (As a point of comparison, Carmelo Anthony's "close" buckets are assisted 62 percent of the time.) So when Bryant is cutting or screening inside, he is not often the target of the action, unless he pops out to the perimeter. Bryant is also usually not looking for offensive rebounds or tip-ins. He will sometimes hang around for long rebounds, but normally retreats to head up the Lakers' transition defense. Perimeter looks Keeping Bryant on the perimeter is the best way to slow him down, except when he gets on a hot streak. But keeping him there is tough if he wants to drive. His patience on the perimeter rivals that of Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups. He will analyze his options while keeping his dribble alive, and take advantage of any angle you give him. The defender must play him with toughness throughout each possession. Double teams and blitzes on screen-rolls rarely bother him -- he waits for his teammates to get to their designated spots and makes an easy pass to one of them. Bryant is getting a lot of "Gretzkys" this season by making the pass that leads to the assist. That comes from making easy plays and trusting the system. He may pull up for his jumper at any time -- the defender must not try to block it and risk fouling him. He is just an average to above-average perimeter shooter, with an eFG% of 44.7. (To compare, Joe Johnson has an eFG% of 52.1; eFG% is effective field goal percentage, which takes into account the added value of 3-point shots.) Of course, Bryant is capable of getting on a very hot streak that can last all game, and when this happens, the defenders cannot continue to allow him to take perimeter shots. They must change up their looks and force him to a different move each possession. As a point guard Bryant is playing much more as a floor general thus far this season. He uses verbal commands and hand gestures to direct his teammates as they run the triangle offense. He does this in transition as well, motioning for teammates to cross the key so as to create an open lane for another teammate coming down the floor. (He's also directing traffic on defense.) More than any of the other Lakers guards, Bryant is looking to get his post players touches in the paint. When Kobe has the ball on the perimeter, a team's post defense needs to stiffen. Playing off the ball, he is hunting the ball a lot less, allowing the triangle to run through its natural options. He appears much more comfortable allowing Lamar Odom to be a playmaker, rotating to a soft spot on Odom's drives and not aggressively calling for the ball. One sign of Bryant's willingness to share the ball is his Assist Ratio, which is a measure of how many of his possessions end in an assists. Not only are Bryant's assists up, but his Assist Ratio is up dramatically, while his Usage Rate (the rate at which he uses Lakers possessions) is down, which shows he is shooting less often. When Bryant drives, he still is looking for his shot, but an undisciplined help defender will get burned by a sharp no-look or behind-the-back pass from Bryant to an open teammate. Bryant looking for his teammates more often means that even when he is on one of his patented personal runs, his teammates are less likely just to stand and watch. The triangle and the transition offense are more effective with Bryant acting as a playmaker and not just a scorer. Defending the perimeter Bryant, a strong defender through most of his career, is still a very difficult player to score on. He uses a combination of length, quickness and tenacity to suffocate his opponents. His long reach is his best weapon right now, bothering dribblers and shooters. Bryant plays the passing lanes reasonably well, especially if he is not guarding a primary scorer. He is capable of shadowing the better players. In one recent sequence against Chicago, he successfully denied Ben Gordon the ball in the wing area and then was able to recover and deny Gordon's quick backdoor cut. Few NBA players would have been successful defending that combination of actions. Bryant quarterbacks the Lakers' defense, and is quick to spot rotation weaknesses, which he ably fills. He does a poor job of blocking out his opponent, rarely even looking for him. Instead, he just hunts the ball with a good feel for where it is going, and almost always "goes glass." Opponents do not take advantage of his disinterest in blocking out often enough. Bryant is also a master at tipping the ball to himself, earning him rebounds in traffic. Intangibles and outlook It appears this season Bryant is playing more to the specs laid out by Phil Jackson. This could be a temporary development while he is recovering from surgery, or it could be a sign of growth that often comes to players. When I've watched him this season, his body language when teammates erred was not great, but it wasn't bad either. Rarely did I see a scowl, and sometimes he made a positive gesture to the offending teammate. This is an area to scrutinize going forward, especially when the Lakers suffer some tough defeats. When a teammate made a positive play, Bryant was often the most enthusiastic reactor. This will help develop a bond between him and the other Lakers, which is clearly a goal set by Jackson and a necessary ingredient to team chemistry. The best way to evaluate Bryant now is indeed through the successes and failures of his team. The Lakers have the talent to contend for a top-four seed in the West, so Bryant's personal success will depend in large part on their end results. If he continues to play the way he has started this season, good things will happen in L.A. He will still have some high-scoring games, but they may come more naturally as a result of how the other team is playing rather than from Kobe taking on all comers. Technical recommendations Bryant can still develop into a better, more efficient player. The main area for improved play would be his perimeter shooting, both off the dribble and on catch-and-shoot opportunities. This is typical for players who are very effective at slashing. As players like Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson advanced in their careers, they drove less often and their outside shots got better. Bryant's outside shot is slightly above average, but his percentages are damaged by poor shot selection. If he continues to trust the Lakers' triangle offense and his teammates, his shot selection will improve and so will his percentages. Also, Bryant almost always kicks his right leg out in front of him when he pulls up for a jump shot, taking him a little off balance and creating a slight fade to every shot. He should correct this, and fade only when necessary. His jumper, including his 3-point shot, has too little arc -- it's a flat shot with little margin for error. An increased arc would increase his margin for error and produce a higher percentage of made shots. Final analysis There is no reason to believe that Bryant's game will not be at its best once he is fully recovered from his knee surgery. Based on his performance last season, and so far this season, it appears that his age and the high number of games he's played have not yet translated into diminished production. He is still the best offensive player on the planet and an excellent defender, and he is rounding into a more complete playmaker and leader. The Lakers have talent and depth, and they will help Bryant continue to evolve into a better teammate. David Thorpe is an NBA analyst for ESPN.com and the executive director of the Pro Training Center in Clearwater, Fla., where he works as a personal coach for Udonis Haslem (Miami Heat), Orien Greene (Indiana Pacers), Alexander Johnson (Memphis Grizzlies) and Kevin Martin (Sacramento Kings).
