Is anyone picking the Blazers?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by KingSpeed, Apr 16, 2015.

  1. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Why -should- anyone outside the blazers fan base pick the Blazers? I feel like this is a question worth repeating.
     
  2. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Wes was our second best player and Memphis would be a tough opponent at full strength so thinking of it that way easy to see why so many pick us to lose.

    It really comes down to Aldridge. He needs to dominate his matchup for us to have a chance. If he's the best big in the series we got a shot. If Marc or Zbo matches his production it's very unlikely we win.
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2015
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  3. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening!

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    Honestly on paper these two teams look very similar in terms of +/- and differentials. However both teams do it in 2 totally different ways. I think this series comes down to who gets to play their style of ball. I have concerns about the Blazers trying to adapt to a Memphis style grind it out game. Doing so would play into the Grizzlies advantage and give them the upper hand.

    I hope we can keep the pace high and play Blazer basketball. If we can do that then I like our odds.
     
  4. Sinobas

    Sinobas Banned User BANNED

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    I know we are missing guys too, but if we lose this series while they are missing Conley and Allen, it will feel pathetic.
     
  5. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    They are both playing game 1, so....
     
  6. Sinobas

    Sinobas Banned User BANNED

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    Yes, but we've made it to the 2nd round every year for the past 1 years.
     
  7. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    I just watched the Houston/Dallas game. Wow! Dallas is almost the exact same team as the Blazers in many ways. They have this pass happy offense that looks for open shooters and Dirk who they use often on the left side. Dirk draws a couple defenders and he passes out to a wide open shot on the 3 point line and they miss shot after shot. Then they get about 12-15 down and start playing defense which in turn starts to really clamp down and Chandler just like Rolo gets a bunch of looks and some offensive rebounds. Then Rondo comes along and tries to shoot crazy shots that brings them storming back. They go to half time wondering How the heck they could play that bad and only be down by 4? They come out for the 3rd and Forget all about what got them back and try to shoot 3's. Houston runs out to a 15 point lead again and then Dallas start to play again. But this time they forget all about Dirk(Aldridge) and the offense looks scrambled at best. Chandler(Rolo) get some big rebounds and Parsons(Batum) starts to show up a bit but of course he isn't shooting well so he joins the crazy passing turnover fest. It all comes down to a close game that could be won if they could just make some shots in the end but with 2 mins left they just don't have quite enough in the tank to make it work and of course Houston fires away from 3 point and kills any idea of a comeback....
    Sound familiar?
    If the Mavs would have took care of the ball (17 turnovers) and Parsons could have hit a 3 they might have been able to win that game. Chandler killed Houston with 18 boards.
     
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  8. Roger Templeton

    Roger Templeton Member

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    That's not the issue. The issue is that Aldridge can't outscore both Gasol and Zach like he did Houston's front court because whoever RoLo is guarding is going to feast. Jones and Asik were not the scoring threat that ZBo is. RoLo has to guard either Gasol or ZBo, while they have Marc Gasol to throw at Aldridge and they can stick ZBo on RoLo and not worry. RoLo has gotten killed by Marc and ZBo every time he has been on the court against them the last couple seasons.

    Don't bring up the Rockets as a comparison. Against the Rockets we only had to worry about Howard in the post, not two post scorers. Houston also runs their offense through Harden, Memphis runs their offense through Gasol and Zach, so low post defense is all the more important.

    Edit - I fully believe that we have a decent shot at winning this series, even though I think the Grizzlies prevail because I think Matthews is a huge loss. Had he been healthy I would have felt like we have enough 3pt shooting and perimeter defense where we win. But I will not be surprised at all if we pull it off. The fan in me picked the Blazers to win G1 by 6 in the predictions thread!
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2015
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  9. Nate Dogg

    Nate Dogg Active Member

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    ESPN pointed out the facts tonight. If the home team wins in Game 1 of a 7 game series, they have a probability of winning it at 85%.
     
  10. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    I am not going to dispute that percentage but you must know that it is a bit slanted right? The first game is a home game for the team that has home court advantage, and in two series at the beginning of every playoff season there is a #1 vs #8 matchup. ESPN does this all the time. They jump from stat to stat as soon as things get going. There are also stats about the second game of the series. Of course this again is a bit confusing. But if a team wins on the road the series changes dramatically. Of course if the home team wins both the first and second game and take a 2-0 lead they are highly favored but if the road team wins that second game it all goes out the window again. If it goes 7 again the home team has the advantage but like last year in the first round Dallas pushed the Spurs to 7 games. The Spurs were in fact the winners and the #1 seed.
     
  11. ThatRandomFan

    ThatRandomFan New Member

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    @Roger Templeton I doubt they put Gasol on Aldridge, Id be willing to bet they leave him on Lopez. The only individual defender the grizzlies have is Tony, everyone else goes into the scheme where gasol doesnt need to guard him. He will have the paint removed (or at least they will try to remove it from aldridge) and Zbo will guard him on perimeter. I hope game 1 is a great one!
     
  12. Grizzly Adams

    Grizzly Adams Member

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    Grizzlies fan here...

    I think this series is closer than the media thinks, and could go either way. One of our blogs had a nice breakdown using some advanced metrics if you want to check it out:

    http://www.3sob.com/2015/april-2015/whos-is-the-favorite-between-portland-and-memphis/21642/

    As a Grizzlies fan, I was ecstatic to be playing the Blazers in the first, but that is more because of the competition in the West as opposed to any knock on your team. That, and it seems like we only ever play OKC, SA and the Floppers in the playoffs. Anyways, here's to a good series and good luck for the winner in the 2nd round and beyond - I'll be cheering for whoever it is.
     
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  13. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance of hitting heads, but you could flip tails 300 times in a row and hitting heads is still 50/50.

    So my point? Even though there is 85% chance the home team wins the series, the odds have no relevance to future outcome
     
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  14. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening!

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    I'd argue that 85% isn't even the odds. It just means that 85% of the time that team has won. Very different from having an 85% chance to win the series.
     
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  15. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Horray civil grizzlies fans!!!
     
  16. lordninja11

    lordninja11 Member

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    I think the media realize the impact of losing a guy like Wes for the season will have on your team. As a grizzlies fan I respect the hell out of him, dude is a Grizz killer for sure.
     

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