Randy's chin has been getting progressively worse over the last few years (since his second & third bouts with Chuck). Randy gets rocked in almost every fight he takes, now. If Toney can clip him, Randy will be in trouble. However Toney is totally unprepared for this fight. He has no idea what he is doing. He's not training with anybody (Juanito has nobody left with him) and he doesn't even understand the lingo let alone the actual technique. Randy should take him down easily, mount him, and either force a referee TKO or get a choke. The hype build up for this fight should be epic!
Whether this fight is at heavyweight or light heavyweight will say a lot about Toney's commitment (or lack thereof). He last fought at 217 and if he's ballooned out to 240 or more, he's just pulling a smash-and-grab with the UFC.