http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti...399/1247/SPORTSWhen the Indiana Pacers qualified for the NBA playoffs in 1993 by the skin of a tiebreaker with Orlando, Donnie Walsh figured it was a good thing. Could've had: (From left) Kobe Bryant (1996), Tim Hardaway ('89) and Karl Malone ('85) all were passed over by the Pacers in NBA drafts. The Pacers would benefit from the playoff experience, and the Magic would have just one chance in 66 to win the top draft pick."I felt good about it," recalled Walsh, the team's general manager at the time.Until the day of the lottery, that is, when Orlando drummed the odds and won the No. 1 pick in the greatest lottery upset of all time."I heard a report on the radio and almost drove off the road," Walsh said. "I almost threw up. I never would have thought that would happen."Indeed, strange things happen in the NBA's draft lottery. The Pacers have generally come up on the short end of dumb luck, with a notable exception in 1988. That gives wide-eyed optimists hope that they're due for a stroke of wildly good fortune Tuesday, when they have less than a 1 percent chance of winning the first or second pick."We've had some bad luck," co-owner Herb Simon acknowledged. "Maybe we are due."The Pacers have participated in one coin flip (1983) and six lotteries (1985, '86, '88, '89, '96, '97) in their NBA history. Only once have they wound up with a better pick than they should have received based on their record.That came in 1988, when they were coming off a 38-44 record in Reggie Miller's rookie season. Washington and New York had identical records but qualified for the playoffs based on a tiebreaker.That turned out to be a great break for the Pacers, who drew the No. 2 pick, five ahead of where they "belonged." They used it to take Rik Smits, who went on to become the franchise's second all-time leading scorer behind Miller.By that year, the NBA had adjusted the lottery system so that teams only drew for the top three picks, with the remaining selections awarded in inverse order of record.Walsh's heart skipped a beat when the draft order was revealed in reverse order and the Pacers were passed by. That meant they were going to get one of the top three picks and have a shot at Danny Manning, that year's consensus No. 1 pick."I remember when they skipped us, I went, 'Wait a minute, we can get No. 1,' " Walsh said.It turned out, as it often does in the draft, that the Pacers were better off not getting what they wanted.The Los Angeles Clippers used the No. 1 pick on Manning, who had just led Kansas to the NCAA championship. He was a two-time All-Star but struggled through an injury-plagued career and scored fewer points in 15 seasons than Smits did in 12.The only player in the '88 draft who went on to have a more productive career than Smits was shooting guard Mitch Richmond -- whom the Pacers didn't consider because they already had Miller.Walsh's agony of watching Orlando walk off with the No. 1 pick in 1993 was neutralized by all-too-typical NBA fate.The Magic wound up with Penny Hardaway after arranging a draft day deal with Golden State for top pick Chris Webber. Hardaway teamed with 1992's No. 1 pick, Shaquille O'Neal, to lead Orlando to the Finals in 1995, where they were swept by Houston. Hardaway, however, suffered a serious knee injury early in the 1997-98 season, by which time O'Neal had left for the Lakers after a falling-out with management. Orlando's incredible lottery luck never produced a championship.That's the lesson of the lottery. What seems like good luck often turns out to be bad or mediocre luck, and bad luck can become good."It's a crapshoot," Walsh said. "It's a loaded crapshoot."
