Marcus Camby is going to win Defensive Player of the Year tonight, congratulations to him and the Nuggets. But 82games.com has come up with a very detailed analysis of this award, trying to provide a better statistical system than just using blocks, steals, and rebounds which shows Marion as their DPOY. The Conclusion also argues that the Suns aren't a bad defensive team as most would believe simply looking at the scores, like I've argued for 3 years, a Suns game has more possessions, of course both teams are going to have more points, but the Suns do play defensive, they're one of the best teams in terms of defensive FG%, 3PT%, and PPS. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">The 6-7 Marion starts at the small forward position, yet Marion grabbed more defensive boards per game than 53 of 60 starting centers and power forwards in the league, and did so playing next to an accomplished rebounder in 6-11 Amare Stoudemire. Analyzing Marion's blocked shots shows similar production. While Marion is not in the same league as players like Camby or Okafor in raw shot-blocking ability, Marion's 1.5 per-game average is more than half a block more than that of Gerald Wallace, the next best shot blocker of equivalent size. Like Artest and Bowen, Marion is given the toughest defensive assignments a great deal of the time, and sports a fantastic Block Value as a result. Yet Marion's season block total is nearly triple of that of Artest or Bowen, and unlike Artest or Bowen, Marion maintains a very good Personal Foul Efficiency. Marion's tougher-than-average defensive assignments put his stats into even greater perspective: while many of the big men on our list have the luxury of consistently playing near the basket on the defensive end, inflating their numbers in blocks and rebounds, Marion is often forced to defend very good perimeter players, making it that much more difficult to secure his position amongst the league-leaders in these categories. </div> LINK
Wow I found the article to ignore another important factor and that was ball possessions. Marion has more opportunities to get rebounds, blocks, etc. with the pace at which the Suns play. And the article itself mentions that his Plus/Minus defensive numbers aren't very impressive. Duncan and Camby are my top two.
He is probably a top 3 defensive SF. However good defensive big men seem to have more of an impact, Duncan, Yao and Shaq are all good man to man defenders, Dikembe, Ben Wallace, Camby, Duncan, KG are all good help side defenders. I probably wouldn't give him the defensive player of the year award, but I would probably give it to a PF or C 70% of the time.
I can't put it any better than the article, so if you haven't read (or didn't read closely): <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Every year when it comes to the Defensive Player of the Year award we hear the same subjective arguments, every year we hear the same names discussed, and every year we watch as this award is presented to the NBA?s best defensive center. After some serious digging, we have finally discovered why. Our sources tell us that in early 1995, the panel of voters decided that any time spent on statistical analysis for a completely irrelevant award was wasted. A top-secret meeting was held to simplify the selection process. The following memo was distributed: NEW DPOY SELECTION PROCESS Step 1: Choose list of finalists from among NBA?s top 10 in blocks and rebounds (no in-depth analysis necessary). Step 2: Whenever possible, develop anecdotal arguments to highlight one-sided defensive players and eliminate candidates with even marginal offensive ability. Step 3: Once per decade give the award to a non-center with a high steal total (preferably on a team with 60 wins).</div> Centers and Power Forwards are going to have more blocks and rebounds, Marion gets very similar numbers playing outside while they get the advantage of being inside. The people who give out most of these awards don't care about the award (with the exception of MVP), that's why the Coach of the Year is given out to coaches like Doc Rivers, Hubie Brown, and Sam Mitchell while Jerry Sloan is always overlooked. The voters don't want to do any work or in-depth analysis for awards they don't care about and feel aren't important. Perhaps its time they give younger voters a chance, ones that actually watch the games (including the late West games) and will put the work in to cast an educated vote, not a popular lazy one.
<div class="quote_poster">scorbutic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I can't put it any better than the article, so if you haven't read (or didn't read closely): Centers and Power Forwards are going to have more blocks and rebounds, Marion gets very similar numbers playing outside while they get the advantage of being inside. The people who give out most of these awards don't care about the award (with the exception of MVP), that's why the Coach of the Year is given out to coaches like Doc Rivers, Hubie Brown, and Sam Mitchell while Jerry Sloan is always overlooked. The voters don't want to do any work or in-depth analysis for awards they don't care about and feel aren't important. Perhaps its time they give younger voters a chance, ones that actually watch the games (including the late West games) and will put the work in to cast an educated vote, not a popular lazy one.</div> Ok but at the same time, you don't judge defensive impact solely by blocks and steals. Duncan is more of a defensive impact.
<div class="quote_poster">huevonkiller Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Ok but at the same time, you don't judge defensive impact solely by blocks and steals</div> You just agreed with me. You can't judge defensive impact solely on ANY stat, it's a combination. The problem is the award is always given to players who are top 10 in Blocks & Rebounds. This article uses a number of statistical categories not just 1 or 2 that are biased towards Cs and PFs -- this year Marion happened to come out on top, Duncan was 2nd.
<div class="quote_poster">scorbutic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">You just agreed with me. You can't judge defensive impact solely on ANY stat, it's a combination. The problem is the award is always given to players who are top 10 in Blocks & Rebounds. This article uses a number of statistical categories not just 1 or 2 that are biased towards Cs and PFs -- this year Marion happened to come out on top, Duncan was 2nd.</div> This article also didn't mention that the Suns' pace aren't factored into these categories. You really think Marion is a better defensive player than Duncan? Marion also didn't have great Plus/Minus numbers. No I didn't completely agree with you.
Marion and Duncan have similar D.Reb/game (7.7/7.9) Duncan averages 0.9 more BPG Marion averages 1.2 more SPG Marion averaged 7.7 D.Reb Per Inch, Duncan averaged 7.5 Marion's Block Value is 15.5, Duncan's is 12.7 Duncan's Defensive Plus/Minus is 6.6, Marion's is 0.5 Marion has for the most part has better numbers than Duncan who is 1/2 foot taller. Duncan's Defensive Plus/Minus is much better, but as the article says "This statistic is sometimes problematic". I have no problem with you thinking Duncan should've won, it's hard to argue against that. I just wish the voters would use a combination of stats like 82games does in order to pick this award, because they're always picking a player with high BPG and DRPG numbers. Please keep in mind I never said "Marion should've won the award", I just thought the article used an innovative, more efficient method of deciding the winner of this award. If you read the description of the stats, they take away the pace factor (per 100 possessions), a lot of the stats are created to negate certain factors (deceptive block or steal totals) and boost others (defensive plays that lead to points).
<div class="quote_poster">scorbutic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Marion and Duncan have similar D.Reb/game (7.7/7.9) Duncan averages 0.9 more BPG Marion averages 1.2 more SPG Marion averaged 7.7 D.Reb Per Inch, Duncan averaged 7.5 Marion's Block Value is 15.5, Duncan's is 12.7 Duncan's Defensive Plus/Minus is 6.6, Marion's is 0.5 Marion has for the most part has better numbers than Duncan who is 1/2 foot taller. Duncan's Defensive Plus/Minus is much better, but as the article says "This statistic is sometimes problematic". I have no problem with you thinking Duncan should've won, it's hard to argue against that. I just wish the voters would use a combination of stats like 82games does in order to pick this award, because they're always picking a player with high BPG and DRPG numbers. Please keep in mind I never said "Marion should've won the award", I just thought the article used an innovative, more efficient method of deciding the winner of this award.</div> Ah well I am more understanding towards your position. The article did raise good points when it mentioned the awkward criteria that voters use to determine DPOY at times.
I forgot to mention that Marion can defend 4-5 positions, Duncan and many others cannot. Marion can defend anybody from Tony Parker & Iverson to Dirk & KG, even some centers. So that should be considered as well. How Marion didn't make the 1st or 2nd All-Defensive Team is beyond me (he never has, despite being 5th, 7th, and 4th in the Def POY voting the last 3 years) -- the Suns' second best defender made the 1st team, and I'd bet everybody in the Suns organization including Bell would say Marion is their best defender.
<div class="quote_poster">scorbutic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I forgot to mention that Marion can defend 4-5 positions, Duncan and many others cannot. Marion can defend anybody from Tony Parker & Iverson to Dirk & KG, even some centers. So that should be considered as well. How Marion didn't make the 1st or 2nd All-Defensive Team is beyond me (he never has, despite being 5th, 7th, and 4th in the Def POY voting the last 3 years) -- the Suns' second best defender made the 1st team, and I'd bet everybody in the Suns organization including Bell would say Marion is their best defender.</div> Interior Defense is the most important though, and Marion doesn't defend the Interior as well as Duncan. I've heard this argument before from KG fans; though I wouldn't worry about the All-Defensive teams. Shane Battier was absent from them and they are based on rep.
Definately. Shane Battier should be a first team defender, similarly, so should Kirk Hinrich. Anthony Parker wasn't even present in the votes. Kobe on first team? Definately a reputation one right there, he didn't even deserve to be on any All-Defensive team this season.
<div class="quote_poster">huevonkiller Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Interior Defense is the most important though</div> Who declared interior defense the most important? Teams have shifted to a perimeter game since the days of the Centers, most of the Cs and PFs in today's game have a perimeter game, look no further than the last draft when the top player picked was a near 7 footer with an outside game. Even Amare and Elton Brand have learned to polish their 15 footers. Keeping somebody scoring from outside or inside has the same result. You could even say that a steal on the perimeter is better, as it leads to fast break opportunities, while a lot of inside blocks are regained and put right back up for a basket, or the block is sent out of bounds so the opposing team still has possession. Defense is defense, no points is no points. I'm not arguing that Marion is a better defender than Duncan, I'm not arguing that perimeter is better than interior, I'm saying defense is defense, we need voters who will look at more than just the Center in the top 10 in BPG and DRPG... Duncan and Marion are different defenders, Duncan can't defend the players Marion defends, and Marion can't camp in the paint and expect players to take outside shots. We need a more efficient way of comparing different defenders, because I don't agree interior defense is more important than perimeter defense, especially in today's game. If that were true nobody would care about Bruce Bowen, Raja Bell, and others, nor would New York have overspent on Jared Jeffries! I like the Offensive Conversion Rate & Block Value statistics and think they should invent more detailed stats like them. The Offensive Conversion Rate measures if a defensive play leads to a basket or free throws within 5 seconds, which means not only did the player stop the other team from scoring with their defense, but their defense led to their team scoring points. The Block Value separates players like Marion and Artest who defend and get blocks on the opponent's top scorer from players who get their blocks off of scrubs. A block against a good scorer is of greater value than a block against a 12th man. Personal Foul Efficiency is another good idea, as it says, "Andris Biedrins’ block total seems comparable to Ben Wallace’s, until you realize that Wallace has more blocks with half the fouls". <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">though I wouldn't worry about the All-Defensive teams. Shane Battier was absent from them and they are based on rep</div> That's why we SHOULD worry about them, we should worry about all the awards from All-Star MVP, to All-Defensive Teams to Coach of the Year... the voters don't care about 'em and randomly pick people to win these things, but in the end they all matter, the Hall of Fame looks at these, in 50 years people will look at these, so the right people should win them. Let's say Chicago is playing Seattle and Johan Petro scores 4 points but Ray Allen goes off for 50 and Seattle wins, while in San Antonio Bruce Bowen keeps Kobe to 20 points and the Spurs win. Who was the better defender? Ben Wallace only allowed Petro to score 4 points while Bowen allowed Kobe to score 5 times that. Well every year the NBA says keeping players like Petro locked down is better than keeping the Kobe's or Wade's or LeBron's from having big games.
<div class="quote_poster">scorbutic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Who declared interior defense the most important? Teams have shifted to a perimeter game since the days of the Centers, most of the Cs and PFs in today's game have a perimeter game, look no further than the last draft when the top player picked was a near 7 footer with an outside game. Even Amare and Elton Brand have learned to polish their 15 footers. Keeping somebody scoring from outside or inside has the same result. You could even say that a steal on the perimeter is better, as it leads to fast break opportunities, while a lot of inside blocks are regained and put right back up for a basket, or the block is sent out of bounds so the opposing team still has possession. Defense is defense, no points is no points. I'm not arguing that Marion is a better defender than Duncan, I'm not arguing that perimeter is better than interior, I'm saying defense is defense, we need voters who will look at more than just the Center in the top 10 in BPG and DRPG... Duncan and Marion are different defenders, Duncan can't defend the players Marion defends, and Marion can't camp in the paint and expect players to take outside shots. We need a more efficient way of comparing different defenders, because I don't agree interior defense is more important than perimeter defense, especially in today's game. If that were true nobody would care about Bruce Bowen, Raja Bell, and others, nor would New York have overspent on Jared Jeffries? I like the Offensive Conversion Rate & Block Value statistics and think they should invent more details stats like them. The Offensive Conversion Rate measures if a defensive play leads to a basket or free throws within 5 seconds, which means not only did the player stop the other team from scoring with their defense, but their defense led to their team scoring points. The Block Value separates players like Marion and Artest who defend and get blocks on the opponent's top scorer from players who get their blocks off of scrubs. A block against a good scorer is of greater value than a block against a 12th man. Personal Foul Efficiency is another good idea, as it says, "Andris Biedrins’ block total seems comparable to Ben Wallace’s, until you realize that Wallace has more blocks with half the fouls".</div> Well one could say KG was a better multi-dimensional defender; and it's not like Marion is going to be able to guard good post players or respectable PGs. Big men have historically been more important on defense (eg Hakeem). They've had more of a defensive impact which is why they have won DPOY so many times; it would be vain to argue against that fact. Well it is also easier to acquire a perimeter defender than an interior one. What more is there to argue about? You want to see Marion on the All-Defensive team? Ok maybe you got a case, that's all for now.
<div class="quote_poster">huevonkiller Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">and it's not like Marion is going to be able to guard good post players or respectable PGs</div> He does it every night, they've had him defend Tony Parker, Iverson, and Baron Davis (just off my head) as well as put him on KG, Dirk, and Elton Brand. Obviously you missed last year's games when Amare and Thomas were out and Marion was the biggest player the Suns played most of the time... this year he still starts as a PF and when Amare leaves he again is the biggest player the Suns play (until Thomas recently came back). <div class="quote_poster">huevonkiller Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Big men have historically been more important on defense (eg Hakeem)</div> Hakeem hasn't played in the league for some time. Centers aren't nearly what they used to be, the game has changed so much from the Hakeem, Robinson, Wilt, Kareem eras. Unless of course you mean Nesterovic, Przybilla, Dalembert, Collins, Swift, Brezec, Chandler, Pachulia, etc... I'd have to argree, that's a fearsome bunch <div class="quote_poster">huevonkiller Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">What more is there to argue about? You want to see Marion on the All-Defensive team? Ok maybe you got a case, that's all for now.</div> I simply wrote about an objective analysis of the Defensive POY Award, a way voters could pick a winner based on something other than their size and lack of offensive ability... THEY picked Marion as their winner, not me, I simply agree that Marion and Bowen and other smaller defenders should get as much respect as Centers who have to defend MVP candidates like Johan Petro. Especially when Marion has the same stats as most of them while standing 6 inches shorter NOT having the luxury of camping in the post waiting for bench-warmers half their size to toss up a shot that wouldn't have went in anyway and then swat it into the 2nd row.
<div class="quote_poster">scorbutic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">He does it every night, they've had him defend Tony Parker, Iverson, and Baron Davis (just off my head) as well as put him on KG, Dirk, and Elton Brand. Obviously you missed last year's games when Amare and Thomas were out and Marion was the biggest player the Suns played most of the time... this year he still starts as a PF and when Amare leaves he again is the biggest player the Suns play (until Thomas recently came back).</div> I also saw Lamar Odom demolish Marion last year in the PHX series. You're over stating his abilities. He is very versatile but not a beast on the inside or anything. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post"> Hakeem hasn't played in the league for some time. Centers aren't nearly what they used to be, the game has changed so much from the Hakeem, Robinson, Wilt, Kareem eras. Unless of course you mean Nesterovic, Przybilla, Dalembert, Collins, Swift, Brezec, Chandler, Pachulia, etc... I'd have to argree, that's a fearsome bunch </div> There are plenty of talented Power Fowards that have great abilities in this league. Duncan is a PF, don't kid yourself. Interior defenders also defend against obnoxious slashers or guards that are taking it to the Hoop. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post"> I simply wrote about an objective analysis of the Defensive POY Award, a way voters could pick a winner based on something other than their size and lack of offensive ability... THEY picked Marion as their winner, not me, I simply agree that Marion and Bowen and other smaller defenders should get as much respect as Centers who have to defend MVP candidates like Johan Petro. Especially when Marion has the same stats as most of them while standing 6 inches shorter NOT having the luxury of camping in the post waiting for bench-warmers half their size to toss up a shot that wouldn't have went in anyway and then swat it into the 2nd row.</div> They mostly use volume based statistics to pick Marion, it wasn't a very well explained article IMO. Most stats don't show who the best defender is anyway (although Plus/Minus numbers are indifferent of pace somewhat but that stat didn't give Marion any sort of advantage).
