It's really hard to predict this series. About the only thing we can lean on is the fact that we are almost unbeatable at home and we have HCA.
and that we have the league biggest win streak going into the playoffs and Houston lost it's last game (and that it was a REALLY big game for them).
Which team is healthier? Webster or McGrady... and Yao has been missing games due to foot issues Which team has been playing better ball going into the playoffs? The Blazers have won their last 6 & are 9-1 in their last 10... they've regularly been blowing teams out. Houston lost their last game to lose home court advantage in a game they were leading by 15. They are 6-4 in their last 10. Which team has the bigger mismatch to exploit? Limping Yao vs Gregzilla or Roy vs... who is their 2 guard again? Brent Barry??? Aldridge vs Scola seems pretty exploitable as well. Bench? Hayes Lowry Barry Landry Dikembe Wafer vs Greg Outlaw Rudy Sergio Frye I just became a whole lot more convinced about Portland's chances. I don't think having experience losing in the playoffs is a positive thing either... if anything, it's a negative STOMP
I'm think'n that the Rox will be facing some expectations from their fans too....much more so than the Blazers. If the Rockets lose this series, their fans will be sharpening the pitchforks and lighting the torches in Houston.
You know I'm not sure I agree with Stein's assessment of fan expectations (about the only thing aside from the 'perimeter shooting' comment I take issue with). Maybe I'm off-base but I don't think people are going to be majorly let down if the Blazers fail to advance. Am I alone here?
I absolutely agree. The guys have already exceeded what I expected this season. I'm happy with whatever they make of it from here. I'm also optimistic that they are going to raise some eyebrows in the playoffs.
Huh? The defense definitely still has some holes, most glaringly against quick point guards. But perimeter shooting? I don't think I've seen a thread all year entitled "We need better perimeter shooters," or words to that effect. If I could talk to Stein for 10 minutes, I'd ask him to name a non-center on this team who can't hit a three pointer. He'd have to admit among the 10 man rotation the list begins and ends with Sergio. If Portland isn't a good perimeter shooting team, I want to know who is.
For the month of April Rudy and V.Wafer are very close to ppg. However Rudy has better stats in the 3pt % and steals. I think Nate will match these two perhaps?
I suppose it all comes down to how Adelman uses Wafer, but it would seem logical that the backup two guards would be responsible for covering each other
Our perimeter shooters is what killed Denver. Either Roy, Rudy, Blake, or Outlaw were left open and we drilled those shots. Perhaps Mark Stein is listening to Charles Barkley too much and doesn't think we have a good perimeter team.
Honestly, after listening to Stein the other day on Bill Simmons' podcast I'm pretty convinced he's maybe watched us play 5 times all season.
Artest/Battier play the 2/3 for them we don't have much of an edge there. I think this series comes down to Travis and Rudy. Most of the other matchups are fairly even but the Rockets have no counter to those two. If those guys can get our offense going it'll force Artest to stop overplaying Roy and open up our options.
The funny thing is, this is why having all this crazy depth is less important in the playoffs than it is in the regular season; Artest and Battier will probably be on the court 40+ minutes a game and their backups will play much fewer minutes than they do in the regular season. Travis and Rudy aren't going to have quite the luxury of facing other reserves in the same way they do during the regular season, so they are going to have to go through the same trials and tribulations Roy faces. I really hope they are up to the challenge.
Though, when Scola rests, Houston is a pretty small team beyond the center position. Portland can potentially run Roy, Rudy and Outlaw out there together and Artest and Battier can't deal with all of them. Toss in Blake and you have four legitimate scoring threats (Blake only as a shooter, but a damn good one if left open) along the perimeter and Outlaw can defend Landry/Hayes, since they're small power forwards. Actually even Scola isn't that big...Outlaw can likely defend him, too. While I totally agree that consolidating talent in the top four players is the best way to go for title contention, this depth will have a major effect in being able to adapt to different teams well. If a conventional team hits a team they don't match up well with, it's basically tough luck. Portland can mix and match a bit to optimize for each team they face. The configuration they settle on can then play lots of minutes, eschewing depth.
That's a very important factor. Portland is on the upswing right now, and no one in the NBA is hotter.
True enough. I'm not trying to suggest our reserves are going to have no shot at succeeding, just that playoff rotations will blunt some of their effectiveness.
eh, you aren't correct in much of your analysis. yao is fine. he missed one game with a sore foot. he rested it for a day and then was fine. in two games after coming back he had 45 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 blocks on 19-33 shooting. if you're counting on a "limping yao" to give you a chance at winning, you might as well not even show up for the games. who is the rockets 2 guard? artest and battier start together. artest or battier will be on roy all game. von wafer is the backup 2 guard. brent barry is the 9th or 10th man off the bench(though the rockets really would prefer to just go 8 deep). barry shouldn't get more than 10 minutes in any game unless there is an injury.
