Mavs stathead: "My prediction is that the Bulls are going to stink this year."

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by MikeDC, Oct 2, 2009.

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  1. MikeDC

    MikeDC Member

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    Not exactly afraid to mince words.
     
    MikeDC, Oct 2, 2009
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  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Here's hoping that Pargo has a career year and Deng is able to go near full speed by start of the season.
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 2, 2009
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  3. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    Part 3 is up and he picks on the Bulls for playing stupid lineups.
     
    JayJohnstone, Oct 2, 2009
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  4. bullshooter

    bullshooter Active Member

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    The guy is kind of a moron. He starts out by saying that defense is half of the game and how apm is such a great stat, then says the bulls need BG because of his offense completely neglecting his defensive deficiencies. Then he kills the bulls for the lineups they played the most, all of them negative +/-, and all of them including a Rose BG backcourt. Does anybody think the answer is sitting Rose?
     
    bullshooter, Oct 3, 2009
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  5. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    BG's defensive deficiencies are vastly overrated. And Rose was horrid defensively last year esp. in the regular season. Hollinger's Insider blurb on Gordon and Rose on ESPN's individual stats is in agreement with this.

    With that said, I would agree that the Mavs stat guys ability to find such gold in such limited sample sizes is highly suspect. But I can see his point that if an unconventional lineup ends up consistently does well, why not play it more and see what happens.
     
    JayJohnstone, Oct 6, 2009
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  6. bullshooter

    bullshooter Active Member

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    This is more of Wayne contradicting himself. 7 of the top 8 lineups by minutes with BG in them were negative. But BG has a high "impact" rating, so ignore all of the other stats that say he is closer to mediocre...

    Hollinger makes the point that both of them were suspect defenders, and they were both exploited frequently during the year. If you're point is that BG is an adequate defender against mediocre players then what does that get the team? I think my point all along has been that good teams exploit BG. The fact that good teams could take their pick between Rose and BG doesn't make BG a better player, it just makes the bulls a worse team. And it certainly doesn't make BG worth $14 mil/year.

    Has anybody noticed that BG will at least start out the year in Detroit coming off of the bench? I think they still try to move Rip if they can, but I think BG comes out strong in that role and all of the early stories when the bulls inevitably struggle early will be about how good the bulls could have been if they had just paid BG... (Which is still garbage...)
     
    bullshooter, Oct 6, 2009
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  7. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    Who knows what data Wayne is looking at? Gordon's +/- has been excellent for most of his career.

    I think you misread Hollinger.

    Hollinger says "unless [Ben]'s checking somebody like Tony Parker, he'll provide adequate results.. " at Detroit. Given there is no one on the bulls that can adequately cover Parker, I fail to see how replacing BG is dramatically improve our team. Yes, we get a few better matchups but lose a lot of O.

    Hollinger didn't say Rose and Gordon were equivalent. In addition to the above, he said Gordon was underrated. Hollinger did say Rose was "horrid" and as "flammable as they come" last year and surprised this was not a national story.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2009
    JayJohnstone, Oct 7, 2009
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  8. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    OK - this stat guy is officially off his rocker.

    http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-45-35/The-Kevin-Durant-Conundrum.html

    "Knowing that just about any NBA general manager would trade his own children for a prospect of Durant's caliber, [TrueHoop] asked Winston if he'd advise his team to accept if the Mavericks were (in some alternate universe) offered Durant for free. "I'd say probably not," he replied. "I would not sign the guy. It's simply not inevitable that he'll make mid-career strides. Some guys do. But many don't, and [Durant would] have to improve a lot to help a team."

    I really wonder how much of KD's poor adj +/- has to do with the OK getting their ass kicked for 3 quarters and the reserves trading baskets back and forth after KD and all the other teams starters are sitting. Either way, I'm going to have to go with the kid that is top-3 in scoring as both a 19 yr old (behind Carmelo and Spencer Hayward) and a 20 yr old (behind Lebron and Spencer Hayward) and bank on the massive upside.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2009
    JayJohnstone, Oct 9, 2009
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  9. huevonkiller

    huevonkiller Change (Deftones)

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    Agreed, he's a terrible statistician.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2009
    huevonkiller, Oct 9, 2009
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  10. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Durant is going to be one of the more amazing players in this league as he gets older. He has all the tools, and was all league defensive team in college. He can block shots, too.

    I think his role has been to learn to be a big scorer, so far. He's still really young, and he'll figure out the rest of the game in a hurry.

    I'd look at the giant step up he already took from year 1 to year 2 as an indication of how good he's going to be.

    He just plays on a lousy team that's been tanking for a few years to gather up some youth.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2009
    Denny Crane, Oct 9, 2009
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  11. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Sam Smith's take on Durant:

    http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/smith_090727.html

    Durant as good--or better?!?!--than LeBron?

    -- It’s being whispered now among NBA types because, I believe, under a secret NBA/ESPN provision you are not permitted to say aloud anything that might be interpreted to suggest LeBron James isn’t the best thing to ever happen in anyone’s life. But sitting in the stands in Las Vegas at the USA Basketball mini-camp and hearing NBA coaches and general managers, the gasps have been for Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant. I’ve now heard more than one say Durant could be a better player than James given Durant’s combination of amazing size at about 6-10 and pure shooting stroke. And he’s still 20. The feeling is Durant is on the brink of being a 30 per game scorer. Plus, Durant is a serious worker. The Bulls' Derrick Rose has become close with Durant and the two have worked out together considerably this summer. Said Rose, who is five days younger than Durant: “KD is great. He’s real talented. I look at him as like a big brother to me even though we’re the same age. He’s been in the league longer. He’s a great talent, 6-10 guy who can dribble, shoot like a guard. He’s going to be a great talent in the league.”
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 9, 2009
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  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/090212

    Group C: "It Makes Us Angry That You'd Even Ask"


    8. Kevin Durant
    Put it this way: I had a lot to do this week. I am trying to finish a book. I had to finish this column. My wife and daughter returned from a trip late Monday night and I wanted to see them. I am flying to Phoenix on Thursday and had to take care of all the dumb stuff people have when they are about to leave for a trip. On Tuesday night, under normal circumstances, I would have rather given myself a two-foot-long paper cut instead of going to the Staples Center and spending three hours with Lakers fans. I went there anyway. Only three teams would have dragged me out of the house: The LeBrons, the Celts, and Durant's Future Former Team. That's the list.

    (Before you make fun of my bromance with KD, explain how a kid who just turned 20 four months ago has basically been averaging a 29-8 with 49-88-45 percentages and this isn't a national story. I mean, you should be tired of hearing about Durant by now. By the way, he's averaging 31.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg and 45.4 mpg over the past 12 games, six of them wins.

    Here's his game log if you don't believe me. And check those numbers compared to a 21-year-old LeBron in Year 2, or Kobe's third season when he turned 20. Hmmmm. What do you think Durant has to do to crack one of the first three segments on "PTI"? Score 40 for five straight games? I'm just curious. Again, he's 20. He's can't drink yet. This whole paragraph is making me feel bromantic.)
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 9, 2009
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  13. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    Bill Simmons ain't the only one in a bromance with KD. I love the guy.
     
    JayJohnstone, Oct 10, 2009
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  14. bullshooter

    bullshooter Active Member

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    I think you misread the entire situation. Hollinger's statement is basically nonsense because last year BG would have been guarding whoever the 3 was, not Parker or Ginobili or even former bull Roger Mason. And that's the problem. If BG is guarding Parker, it's because he's already been getting torched by whoever the Spurs have at the 2 or the 3. And that's my point. BG forced the bulls to juggle the defensive matchups. Sure, BG can guard Bobby Simmons standing in the corner, but I'd be willing to bet you could too.

    The fact that Winston says he'd give BG $14 mil/year, but wouldn't take KD says all you need to hear to know what kind of advice that is.

    And no, BG's +/- hasn't been excellent most of his career.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2009
    bullshooter, Oct 10, 2009
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  15. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    If Gordon was guarding Parker it was because Rose was thoroughly torched to the point where Vinne needed to try someone else on him. For the most part, Vinnie stuck with Rose guarding whoever was the opponents' PG.

    As far as +/- goes, Gordon's numbers were quite a bit better the year before when Rose wasn't on the court to be scored on at will. And that was a down year for Gordon (his only one).
     
    Denny Crane, Oct 10, 2009
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  16. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    You said Hollinger equated Rose's D to Gordan's, but i misread it. :lol: Take another look at the quotes above.



    Oh, yes it has....
    + 4.8 in 04/05
    + 4.5 in 04/05 Post Season
    + 2.7 in 05/06
    + 3.1 in 05/06 Post Season
    + 2.1 06/07
    +42.6 06/07 Post Season * That is not a typo!!!
    - 4.3 07/08
    No post season in 07/08
    +2.7 08/09
    + 6.5 08/09 Post Season
    All data from 82games.com

    That's excellent in my book. Any better numbers and one is clearly a max player. The fact is that BG is consistently very good which is rare. (Check out Hinrich is you want to see mediocrity or worse in all it's glory.) Its why the stat-head loves him.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2009
    JayJohnstone, Oct 12, 2009
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  17. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    Remember this...


    http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-45-35/The-Kevin-Durant-Conundrum.html

    6 weeks later & now he has this to say about Durant. http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=232

    So let me get this straight, it wasn't inevitable that Durant would make strides and he had a long way to go, but after having one blogger highlighted his +/- deficency, this caused Durant to immediately fix the problem improving a bad player to all-star levels. :biglaugh:

    With advice and conjecture like this, no wonder this guy isn't work for the Mavs any more. Shouldn't stats be able you to find a guy that could possibly improve like this? If it was an improvement and not just noise...
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2009
    JayJohnstone, Nov 29, 2009
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  18. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    I'm a Durant fan and been following this story. I thought this was interesting...

    http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/10/15/the-differing-stories-on-durant-–-and-a-brief-thunder-review/

    Apparently, Mark Cuban reads the blog and comments. I thought this was brilliant.

     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2009
    JayJohnstone, Nov 29, 2009
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  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'm a Durant fan, too.

    Given that OKC's entire roster was either really young or not very talented, the best thing they felt they could do was to feed Durant the ball so he could develop his game more rapidly. His shooting % as a rookie sucked, but every team he played against knew he was going to be shooting in volume and countered that. He learned how to shoot and score efficiently because he was put in a sink or swim situation, thrown in the deep end so to speak.

    Did OKC sacrifice some wins? Probably, but probably not enough to make a difference (make playoffs) and tanking for a season or two meant they got to draft guys like Westbrook.

    The guy is putting up some monsterous numbers for a kid only 21 years old. 27.5 PPG on 45% shooting, 7.1 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.6 SPG. 82games.com says he has a 24 PER at SF, and opposing SFs have a 12 PER.
     
    Denny Crane, Nov 29, 2009
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  20. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    You sure can't argue with the Thunder's rebuilding plan in the big picture. I watched them Friday. That whole team just fits together well & Harden, who couldn't miss, looked like another great find.

    That last article I linked was Wages of Win. They actually just had a followup on the Durant +/- story. http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/how-good-is-kevin-durant-and-the-thunder/. Interesting to bulls fans is the Wages of Wins stat just loves Thabo and indicates he is contributing 10 wins a year.
     
    JayJohnstone, Nov 29, 2009
    #20
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