Mayo/Lee Trade Talk

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by MikeDC, Feb 16, 2011.

  1. MikeDC

    MikeDC Member

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    Yeah, APM is supposed to filter out the effect of the quality of other players, but we know it's not a perfect process. So it's still instructive to look at how a the guys on the team score out. It gives a lot of the context to understand the final numbers.

    From a stats perspective, the technical term here is multicollinearity. The way you get a good estimate for a player is by filtering out the effect of the other players. However if a set of players is usually on the court at the same time, you're left with only a small set of data points where you can actually separate them out.

    Think of trying to isolate the value of Bogans and Rose.
    Almost all the time Bogans is on the court, so is Rose. You compensate for this by also having a nice set of minutes where Rose is not on the court with Bogans, but ideally you'd also want a significant set of data where Bogans is on the court without Rose.

    Even though APM is set up to account for this, it's still limited by the incomplete nature of the data we have. It's good, but I still look at it with an eye toward the data issues that can't completely be accounted for.
     
  2. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I think I understand what you're saying...and it frightens me a bit.

    Thanks.
     
  3. MikeDC

    MikeDC Member

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    Something to consider: The Rockets are $3.6M over the luxury tax
    We’ve now opened $3M in cap room. The right deal could get the Rockets under the cap and save them a boatload of money ($7-10M?).

    For example, I think Korver $5M + our cap space $3M for Jared Jeffries, Courtney Lee and Ish Smith $8.7M would do it and provide a very tangible rationale for the Rockets. Heck, add a pick too.
     
  4. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    If we are giving up Kover, let's get Battier *and* Lee and really go for it. Give'em all the damn picks.
     
  5. MikeDC

    MikeDC Member

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    That'd be fucking awesome.
     
  6. Good Hope

    Good Hope Active Member

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    Worth every penny of what it would cost us.
     
  7. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Okay, I suggested that the Lee pneumonia bench time was signs of a pending trade. (And in my defense, I just watched the Pistons-Rockets game tonight and the Pistons announcers were making "Pneumonia, yeah right?" type comments.

    Anyway, Lee was flying around the court tonight. He played with more energy on defense than the rest of the team and was running all over the place trying to cover for his teammates on missed assignments. He looks nothing like the passive player I saw in the first game I covered him closely. I think *gulp* there's a pretty darn good chance Lee actually had pneumonia, and now I'm feeling pretty awful.

    If tonight's Lee was the real Lee then count me in. I'd be willing to give up Gibson and not look back. He looked great on defense, and his offense was fine, sans his absurdly bad driving game.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2011
  8. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Oh hell yes.

    Korver, Scalabrine the Raptors trade exception (and two first round picks?) for Battier and Lee works like a charm and saves the Rockets mega bucks (5.7 million!!!). Yao Ming comes off the books next season so Houston only needs temporary relief.

    I'd do this in a heartbeat even if it's potentially disruptive in the short run.

    EDIT: Messed up the numbers first time around. This is a trade that makes way too much sense.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2011
  9. MikeDC

    MikeDC Member

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    Gotta be tailored just right to get the Rockets under the LT line. But yeah... I couldn't imagine a better deal, and the huge savings for the Raps at least makes it plausible.
     
  10. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    I didn't realize the Rockets were (a) well into the tax this year and (b) well out of the tax next year. No wonder every other rumor concerns the Rockets this deadline. I've heard that the Celtics are interested in making a deal for Battier, but they don't seem to be in as strong a position as the Bulls -- no trade exception.
     
  11. MikeDC

    MikeDC Member

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    Yup, they were loaded for bear, but the bear stepped on Yao's foot
     
  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ys-tradebuzz022211

    Why did Chicago move young forward James Johnson(notes) to the Toronto Raptors for a Miami Heat first-round pick? Coach Tom Thibodeau simply wasn’t an advocate of Johnson, who was the 16th overall pick out of Wake Forest in the 2009 draft. The Bulls’ front office was higher on Johnson than Thibodeau, but Thibodeau has gained a great influence in player personnel with the Bulls. Chicago is still talking to Houston about shooting guard Courtney Lee(notes), a favorite of Thibodeau’s, sources said.
     
  13. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

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    You could also play Battman against the big guards like Kobe, Richardson ....and he's even match up well with older slowing 2's like Manu and Allen

    If we could somehow swing Lee and Battier and give up Taj + our pick and Miami's pick ... but keep the Charlotte pick I would be all over it .

    Battier is no shotblocker like Taj is but he's such a versatile defender. He's hell out on the perimeter and he is a a very very good ( and much underrated ) interior defender
     
  14. ~Fatality~

    ~Fatality~ JBB JustBBall Member

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    Wouldn't surprise me if we moved that Miami pick we just picked up.
     
  15. JayJohnstone

    JayJohnstone Active Member

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    I agree we could add Taj or Asik if we had both Lee and Battier coming back this way.
     
  16. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    I'm not sure its going to take a big to make the trade happen. Houston is over the barrel and needs to find some way to wipe (preferably) 3.2 million off its payroll. The question is which team will make the next best offer, because that sets the contours of the deal. I have to assume that there are a number of teams that would be willing to acquire Lee outright for a trade exception and potentially take on a second player since Lee's salary is only 1.3 million this year; but would they also offer a pick in the deal? How about an additional big? This might be one of those circumstances where the Bulls are able to use another team's cap situation to get them a plum of a deal.
     
  17. MikeDC

    MikeDC Member

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    While I like Battier, I think that's expecting way too much. If the Rockets want to get under the luxury tax, I'd bet they could get lots of value for him, I'd think. That's why I suggested Jeffries.... they're going to pay him good money (and he's going to cost them even more) and get nothing back. Giving up Lee for a decent player like Brewer or Korver and $10M in fiscal turnaround is a win-win. Giving up Battier and Lee is a robbery that I wouldn't agree to were I the Rockets. They have plenty of other options, I'd imagine.
     
  18. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Battier's deal is up at the end of the season so I can't imagine he has all that much value to Houston, or anyone else for that matter. There might be a way to work out a three-way deal between Houston, a contender, and a team with a large trade exception where a TPE goes to Houston; Battier goes to a contender; and picks go to Houston and the facilitating team. The reason you include Battier in the deals is that his contract allows you to provide Houston more luxury tax relief.
     
  19. MikeDC

    MikeDC Member

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    Yup, I'm just saying that including Jeffries would provide similar relief, and allow the Rockets to keep Battier, who they seem to like.

    If you're Houston and you're already on the fence about trading Lee, you tell the Bulls to get you under the tax by doing Korver/pick for Lee/JJ. That gets the Rockets under the tax.

    If you're the Rockets, would you prefer to get under the tax and pay Battier to play for you, or to get under the tax and pay JJ to go somewhere else? Obviously you'd rather have Battier playing for you.

    Likewise, if you're the Bulls, of course you'd prefer Battier to JJ, but if push comes to shove are you gonna turn down Korver/Pick for JJ/Lee? I sure as shit wouldn't.
     
  20. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Word is Memphis GM just said, 80% sure Mayo will be traded.
     

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